Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice

[WaldSkins]

This would have been a better thread if I was giving the option to trade up for luck or manning. I'd give up the picks for luck but not for rg3

[biffle]

'50% of 1st round QBs succeed' is a statistic.

Using that to say 'Griffin has a 50% chance of success' is a terrible use of that statistic. And using it as a basis for draft decisions even more so.

I tried to show you examples to illustrate that, but it seemed pretty clear you weren't going to listen regardless so I gave up.

[NC_Skins]

[30gut]

Originally Posted by SBXVII

Robert Griffin III, Baylor, NFL Draft - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com

They say a lot of great things about him and his accuracy and strength but...

Will KS expect him to roll out more or expect him to stay in the pocket like he did a more mobile Beck? I'd expect stay in the pocket.

When Beck was in Kyle called more roll outs.
You admit that Griffin is mobile therefore why would you expect Kyle to keep Griffin in the pocket?
QB movement plays long been a staple of Mike Shanahan's offense.
Cutler, Plummer, Elway and Young all made tons of plays off Making boot-action and sprint-out movement passes.

Originally Posted by SBXVII

Now I'll admit I took only the negative comments and posted them........So I'm pointing out his flaws only because as some would make it sound ... he has none and he's a franchise QB because of it or will be.

Scouts are all gonna have their opinions about the QB prospects.
Even though you admit to only posting the negatives and rationalize your reason for doing so your post still comes off as a hatchet job.
And any scouting opinion you give about any prospect can appear negative if you cut+paste only the negative comments and use those comments to steer your opinion of the prospect.

Originally Posted by SBXVII

No my point is that some of these faults are the basis for our scheme which he supposedly fits into.

No QBs faults lend themselves towards being a fit into any scheme and every QB has faults.
But forming an opinion or determining scheme fit based only a prospects faults is imo a poor way to make an evaluation.

Originally Posted by Bill Walsh

"I instructed everyone scouting that I wanted to know what the redeeming quality is that this person has that will help us win," "Don't tell me what he can't do. Tell me what he can do."

However Griffin skillset is a direct fit for our offense or any other.

I'm sure you read this:

Originally Posted by good stuff about Griffin

Accuracy: A natural passer with very good accuracy and ball placement, especially on the run. Has very good downfield touch with beautiful deep ball accuracy. Impressive feel on bucket and long throws.

Setup/Release: Has a quick release and does a nice job with play fakes. Gutsy and fearless, standing tall in the pocket even when he knows the hit is coming.

Reading Defenses: Sees the entire field and works through his progressions, manipulating the pocket and keeping his eyes downfield.

On the Move: An elite athlete with quick feet and superior speed ? smooth, flexible and leggy. Has magic escapability and adds an extra dimension with his legs. Makes something out of nothing, keeping defenders off balance and forcing poor angles because of his jets. Very good patience, vision and instincts as a runner with football toughness ? more than simply a track athlete.

Intangibles: Exudes the natural leadership and confidence on the field that teammates respond to and follow. Very tough-minded and not afraid to take chances. Never allows himself to get too high or too low and the situation never seems too much. A determined passer ? thrower first and runner second. Very smart in the classroom and his intelligence translates well to the field ? graduated from Baylor in Dec. 2010 with a degree in political science and is currently working on his master?s degree. He possesses ?wow? playmaking ability with a clutch gene. Plays poised and in control late in games and is comfortable in the ?big? moment. Griffin is a team-first guy and is highly competitive. Winner and leads by example. Has off-the-chart intangibles and coaches rave about his work ethic, practice habits and overall character. Has very good starting experience as a three-year starter (40 career starts) and was the youngest starting quarterback in college football in 2008. Highly productive at the college level and set or tied 54 school records at Baylor and several other NCAA marks ? one of only three players in college football history to throw for 10,000+ passing yds and rush for 2,000+ yds in his career (Dan LeFevour, Colin Kaepernick). In 2011, Griffin led the Bears to their first bowl win since 1992 and was the first Heisman Trophy winner from Baylor since 1963. He set several records in track ? in both high school and college. Is he fully committed to football? (Olympics, track, academics)

Originally Posted by Bill Walsh

The single trait that separates great quarterbacks from good quarterbacks is the ability to make the great, spontaneous decision, especially at a crucial time. The clock is running down and your team is five points behind. The play that was called has broken down and 22 players are moving in almost unpredictable directions all over the field.

This is where the great quarterback uses his experience, vision, mobility and what we will call spontaneous genius. He makes something good happen. This, of course, is what we saw in Joe Montana when he pulled out those dramatic victories for Notre Dame.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by biffle

'50% of 1st round QBs succeed' is a statistic.

Using that to say 'Griffin has a 50% chance of success' is a terrible use of that statistic. And using it as a basis for draft decisions even more so.

I tried to show you examples to illustrate that, but it seemed pretty clear you weren't going to listen regardless so I gave up.

Point taken, but define "succeed"?

Did Jason Campbell succeed? Did Carson Palmer? Did Vince Young? Did Chad Pennington? Is Mark Sanchez succeeding?

Looking at 1st round QBs over history, you've got plenty of guys who flopped, call it 50%. And you have plenty of guys who stuck around as QBs and performed well, but were never able to win anything. What you have very, very few of is stars.

And Manning is a STAR. The biggest.

Do you want to sign up for a guy who gets us to a few division titles and the divisional round of the playoffs? Maybe Griffin is more of a lock than other QB prospects, but you have to acknowledge the likelihood.

And I ask you, what's more likely. That Manning will never be himself again, or that Griffin will not become a stud?

[30gut]

Originally Posted by biffle

'50% of 1st round QBs succeed' is a statistic.

Using that to say 'Griffin has a 50% chance of success' is a terrible use of that statistic. And using it as a basis for draft decisions even more so.

I tried to show you examples to illustrate that, but it seemed pretty clear you weren't going to listen regardless so I gave up.

C'mon now you're gonna play semantics?
Dude just use the quote feature.
My statement is as I intend is right here:

With Griffin the gamble is the same as with any rookie QB where historically the success rate is right around 50/50 its even lower when using the 'franchise' QB or 'elite' QB label as the measure of success

No need to add or spin it or make assumptions from it.

And again:

Originally Posted by 30gut

And the larger point, which is lost on you, is that Peyton Manning has already proven himself to be what we hope Griffin will become.

[biffle]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Point taken, but define "succeed"?

Did Jason Campbell succeed? Did Carson Palmer? Did Vince Young? Did Chad Pennington? Is Mark Sanchez succeeding?

Looking at 1st round QBs over history, you've got plenty of guys who flopped, call it 50%. And you have plenty of guys who stuck around as QBs and performed well, but were never able to win anything. What you have very, very few of is stars.

And Manning is a STAR. The biggest.

Do you want to sign up for a guy who gets us to a few division titles and the divisional round of the playoffs? Maybe Griffin is more of a lock than other QB prospects, but you have to acknowledge the likelihood.

And I ask you, what's more likely. That Manning will never be himself again, or that Griffin will not become a stud?

Some of those questions you'll have to ask of people who want to use that 50% success number. I don't, so I'm not going to spend any time breaking down the particulars of something I think is basically worthless.

Manning certainly was great. Will he be again? Who knows. And who knows if the odds of that are better than of Griffin being great in the pros. But are you even discussing the Manning of now? Because even in 2010 Manning was still very good, but that performance might not get him into the Pro Bowl in the NFC right now. And do we think he's going to be better now than he was then, after a year off and in a new environment?

All of which is irrelevant to my thinking, because I think Manning, even if totally healthy, provides such a small window to win, and one in which he is likely to decline as the team is able to build around him. It's not a recipe for success, imo.

And no, division titles aren't worth much to me. The goal should be Super Bowls, and the team should be building towards them. Which is not the likely path I see with Peyton Manning.

[diehard]

It seems like some posters have beef with other posters.

[biffle]

Originally Posted by diehard

It seems like some posters have beef with other posters.

No one invited me over for beef.

[los panda]

i'll be praying in the bathroom if anyone needs me

[30gut]

Originally Posted by biffle

All of which is irrelevant to my thinking, because I think Manning, even if totally healthy, provides such a small window to win, and one in which he is likely to decline as the team is able to build around him. It's not a recipe for success, imo.

And no, division titles aren't worth much to me. The goal should be Super Bowls, and the team should be building towards them. Which is not the likely path I see with Peyton Manning.

Signing Peyton Manning reduces the current urgency to find a QB of the future through the use of a 1st round or early round draft picks.
Those early round draft picks can then be used for team building.
Areas like of team like OL, DL, DBs, WRs etc.
It also affords the luxury of developing/grooming a mid-round QB of the future the old fashioned way.
And of course the option to draft the next Robert Griffin in 2014 or 2015 will still be there.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by diehard

It seems like some posters have beef with other posters.

Not on my end I'm easy breezy.
I come on here to talk football and in an internet forum conversations/discussion can sometimes devolve into quibbling, which I try to avoid.

I try and post in a conversational manner the same way I would talk to a guy sitting next to me watching a game at a sports bar.

[biffle]

Originally Posted by 30gut

Signing Peyton Manning reduces the current urgency to find a QB of the future through the use of a 1st round or early round draft picks.
Those early round draft picks can then be used for team building.
Areas like of team like OL, DL, DBs, WRs etc.

He'll also use up an awful lot of cap room which could be used towards the same team building.

Originally Posted by 30gut

It also affords the luxury of developing/grooming a mid-round QB of the future the old fashioned way.

And if we want to use those supposed odds you used earlier, the above plan has a success rate of, what, 5%?

Originally Posted by 30gut

And of course the option to draft the next Robert Griffin in 2014 or 2015 will still be there.

And he'll win us enough games that we'll be nowhere near the pick you would need to get the next Griffin, meaning it would cost much more than it would now, assuming we even lucked into another situation of a QB as good as Griffin being available and the team holding the pick having no need for a QB.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by biffle

He'll also use up an awful lot of cap room which could be used towards the same team building.

Maybe, maybe not.
The reports from Manning's camp suggest that he would be willing to structure his contract in favorable manner for the express purpose of not crippling that teams ability to improve.
And Bruce Allen has done a nice job creating cap space to allow them to sign a Peyton Manning.

And if we want to use those supposed odds you used earlier, the above plan has a success rate of, what, 5%?

You seem a bit salty huh?
The numbers are whatever the numbers are, the statistical outcome doesn't mean it can't or won't succeed.
We could represent the minor percentage that succeeds.

If you want to crunch the numbers and let me know be my guest.
Lets say Peyton plays for 3 years and each year they draft a developmental QB in the mid-rounds (3rd and down).

And he'll win us enough games that we'll be nowhere near the pick you would need to get the next Griffin, meaning it would cost much more than it would now, assuming we even lucked into another situation of a QB as good as Griffin being available and the team holding the pick having no need for a QB.

If we're shouting hypotheticals why not win the SB?
We don't have to get lucky for there to be other great QB prospects, there are great QB in almost every draft class.

And if a team wants a to draft a QB they can always trade up, draft position doesn't have to preclude a team from acquiring the prospect they want.

[biffle]

Originally Posted by 30gut

Maybe, maybe not.
The reports from Manning's camp suggest that he would be willing to structure his contract in favorable manner for the express purpose of not crippling that teams ability to improve.
And Bruce Allen has done a nice job creating cap space to allow them to sign a Peyton Manning.

And he's still going to cost a lot of money. If you don't think so, you're kidding yourself.

And even assuming this "I'll play for incentives" talk doesn't go completely out the window once the bidding starts, those incentives will be in the likely to be earned category (probably mostly for games played), which means you have to use the cap space anyway and get it back if he doesn't reach them. So either he costs a lot or he's worthlesss, basically.

Originally Posted by 30gut

You seem a bit salty huh?
The numbers are whatever the numbers are, the statistical outcome doesn't mean it can't or won't succeed.
We could represent the minor percentage that succeeds.

If you want to crunch the numbers and let me know be my guest.
Lets say Peyton plays for 3 years and each year they draft a developmental QB in the mid-rounds (3rd and down).

Facts are facts. And the chances of finding a premier QB in the 3rd round are virtually nil, despite you using several draft picks, which could have gone to the team building you were so concerned with.

Originally Posted by 30gut

If we're shouting hypotheticals

How is this just a hypothetical? Is the plan actually to sign Manning and have him suck so much we're picking top 10 again?

Originally Posted by 30gut

why not win the SB?

I've already said I don't see us winning a SB with Peyton.

Originally Posted by 30gut

We don't have to get lucky for there to be other great QB prospects, there are great QB in almost every draft class.

And they're almost always drafted by the teams with the top picks.

Originally Posted by 30gut

And if a team wants a to draft a QB they can always trade up, draft position doesn't have to preclude a team from acquiring the prospect they want.

And again, even if it were possible it's going to cost a ton. If you're going to blanch at the price to go from 6 to 2, just wait what it will be to go from the late teens (or lower) to number 1.