Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by biffle

'50% of 1st round QBs succeed' is a statistic.

Using that to say 'Griffin has a 50% chance of success' is a terrible use of that statistic. And using it as a basis for draft decisions even more so.

I tried to show you examples to illustrate that, but it seemed pretty clear you weren't going to listen regardless so I gave up.

Point taken, but define "succeed"?

Did Jason Campbell succeed? Did Carson Palmer? Did Vince Young? Did Chad Pennington? Is Mark Sanchez succeeding?

Looking at 1st round QBs over history, you've got plenty of guys who flopped, call it 50%. And you have plenty of guys who stuck around as QBs and performed well, but were never able to win anything. What you have very, very few of is stars.

And Manning is a STAR. The biggest.

Do you want to sign up for a guy who gets us to a few division titles and the divisional round of the playoffs? Maybe Griffin is more of a lock than other QB prospects, but you have to acknowledge the likelihood.

And I ask you, what's more likely. That Manning will never be himself again, or that Griffin will not become a stud?