Lets overpay for Jared Allen

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Beemnseven

Well, if you go from a 10-6 playoff team in 1999 to 8-8 the next year, cutting guys like Brian Mitchell and bringing in Jeff George and Deion Sanders, alienating Brad Johnson and firing a head coach in the middle of a season with the playoffs still in reach, YES -- I'd call that a decline.

If you go from a solid, proven guy like Marty Schottenheimer who had this team in the right direction and firing him for Steve Spurrier while dragging in bums like Trung Canidate and Jaquez Green, YES -- I'd call that a decline.

If you go from a 10-6 playoff team in 2005, and then revert right back to your old ways and bring in guys like Adam Archuleta, Brandon Lloyd and TJ Duckett, tossing away valuable draft picks in the process on your way to a 5-11 record, YES -- I'd call that a decline.

How 'bout that? That fit nicely in your little Team 'A' vs. Team 'B' scenario?

You should also note that while the average record for a hypothetical team in a season is 8-8, that doesn't account for the fact that the median team in the NFL tends to be a 7-9 team. This is because the elite teams win more games than the awful teams lose. That is to say, that the average NFL team is inevitably more likely to lose to the worst team in the NFL than they are to beat the best team in the NFL. This makes sense, does it not?

Therefore the prototypically average NFL franchise will win about 47% of it's games in the free agency era. The Redskins have won 47% of their games in the Snyder era. I would agree with you that it would be irresponsible to credit Snyder for the success in 1999, but the Redskins are still (give or take) the average NFL franchise in his era.

Maybe average isn't good enough for you, but I don't think that's the argument you are trying to make.