NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback

[GTripp0012]

I ran a regression on the college statistics of players who figure to be considered in the first two or three rounds of the NFL Draft at the quarterback position. Factors I looked at included: career completion percentage, college victories, college starts, career value progression (i.e. did he improve in every year, or was he best as a sophomore), expected draft position (as not to have Pike and Bradford on the exact same scale), and career passing attempts.

The order of the comparables are somewhat arbitrary. I ran a bunch of two variable regressions, and then had to eyeball the closest to the line on two or three different graphs. Anyway, this is what I found in the purely statistical sense, so keep in mind that if Jimmy Clausen doesn't remind you of Byron Leftwich, it's not because I think they look exactly the same out there. Just that there are similarities in the draft profiles.

Jimmy Clausen
1. Matt Leinart
2. Jason Campbell
3. Byron Leftwich
4. Drew Brees
5. Aaron Rodgers
6. Matt Stafford
7. Ben Roethlisberger

Sam Bradford
1. Ben Roethlisberger
2. Matt Leinart
3. Rex Grossman
4. Brian Brohm
5. Jason Campbell
6. Matt Ryan
7. Aaron Rodgers

*--Interestingly, Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen are more similar to each other than they are to any of the comparables I listed for either, with the exception of Leinart for Clausen.

Jake Locker
1. Marques Tuiasosopo
2. Joey Harrington
3. Quincy Carter
4. Rex Grossman
5. Mark Sanchez
6. JaMarcus Russell
7. Drew Henson

Tony Pike
1. Charlie Batch
2. Joe Flacco
3. Drew Brees
4. Kellen Clemens
5. Matt Ryan
6. Mark Sanchez
7. Tom Brady

Tim Tebow
(he's kind of fascinating...a lot of these QBs have something in common that Tebow does not)
1. Daunte Culpepper
2. Pat White
3. Alex Smith
4. Troy Smith
5. Tim Couch
6. Kevin Kolb
7. David Carr

Colt McCoy
1. Chad Pennington
2. Philip Rivers
3. Drew Brees
4. Tim Couch
5. Brian Brohm
6. Vince Young
7. Chad Henne

Dan LeFevour
1. Jay Cutler
2. Brady Quinn
3. Donovan McNabb
4. Chad Pennington
5. Philip Rivers
6. Kevin Kolb
7. John Beck