A Clarification on whether the Redskins are Re-Building

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

There isn't any evidence that surrounding talent is meaningless because the best quarterbacks of the last decade have happened to play with the best surrounding talent. So when those teams (Pittsburgh, New England, Indianapolis, San Diego and recently Atlanta, Green Bay, and New Orleans) win consistently, it's not proving anything about isolated quarterback play. It's just proving that the haves sustain themselves by consistently beating the have nots.

I'm trying to deal in real world problems, but you're spitting on the idea that three or four game changing players might be more valuable in the long run than the second rated QB in this year's draft.

Keep in mind that no one ever said one of those game changing players couldn't be a quarterback or that the Redskins would have to be weak at QB if we didn't make this trade. No one was telling us we couldn't pick a QB in the first round this year. And this in a year where someone did tell us we couldn't use all that cap room we actually had.

Here's the world we live in: the Redskins have three homegrown first rounders on the roster. They have Orakpo, Trent Williams, and Ryan Kerrigan. They will add Robert Griffin to that group. They will not pick in the first round for two years.

That's your core of talent going forward, for better or worse. We will build around that core, because we have no choice. Meanwhile, even the worst drafting teams in the league will hit at about a 50% rate in first round picks, meaning that by the time the 2014 draft gets here, the worst drafting teams in the NFL (who theoretically, super bowl contenders aren't competiting with, they are destroying them on the field) will have drafted four busts in the first round between 2007-2014. They will have just as much homegrown first round talent as the Redskins. Even under Cerrato, that was never the case.

In the real world, the odds are stacked against Griffin for that reason. 2012 is the only year of their rookie contracts where Griffin is likely to have a better supporting cast than Andrew Luck or Ryan Tannehill. The Redskins have every resource available to build him a supporting cast (as do the other teams), but they can no longer compete later because the future isn't a level playing field.

Or to steal a phrase from the Redskins: the future is now.

Many good points here, and I concede the point on strong cast and QB being tied at the hip, but one thing carries the day. You can win the SB with a great QB and a strong surrounding cast, but you can't win the SB with a strong surrounding cast minus a great QB. The example of Dilfer doing it no longer applies given the new rules the league is employing.

Yes, we're down a few picks that could mean a great deal to our nucleus. This move is a long term move in that when you think you have a chance to draft that rare, game-changing QB, you do it. Even if it hurts your immediate draft classes. And you keep that QB in house for 10-15 years, and you find a way to take care of the rest later when you've got 1st rounders again.

It all starts with the QB. I don't think Tannehill is that guy. Apparently the Redskins don't either. With Griffin's potential, at least there's hope. With Ryan Tannehill or Rex Grossman or Matt Flynn, the only hope is that we'll be in the right position to draft Barkley next season.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Many good points here, and I concede the point on strong cast and QB being tied at the hip, but one thing carries the day. You can win the SB with a great QB and a strong surrounding cast, but you can't win the SB with a strong surrounding cast minus a great QB. The example of Dilfer doing it no longer applies given the new rules the league is employing.

I think winning the SB still validates your belief in the current QB. We saw it happen w/Eli a few years back: if the 49ers win the SB next year, they'll be front and center calling out people who called Alex Smith a bust.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I think winning the SB still validates your belief in the current QB. We saw it happen w/Eli a few years back: if the 49ers win the SB next year, they'll be front and center calling out people who called Alex Smith a bust.

True. But the only QBs in whom we believe are SB winners are those taken at the top of the draft. Eli validated the belief.

Hence Griffin. QBs with that much promise give hope by offering the legit shot at it.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

True. But the only QBs in whom we believe are SB winners are those taken at the top of the draft. Eli validated the belief.

Hence Griffin. QBs with that much promise give hope by offering the legit shot at it.

I mean, T.J. Yates was never plan A, but he was taken in the 6th round last year, and ended up quarterbacking the pound-for-pound best team last year as a rookie. Odds were always going to be against him to win the whole thing, but all the Texans needed was a guy who would be pushing in the right direction at the quarterback position. And there are more than 32 guys like that in the league.

The Redskins, however, cannot get to where the Texans were simply by having Griffin push the team in the right direction. He is the team. Already.

I don't think the Redskins deserve to be ridiculed for making what was a very defensible trade. But by calling this trade a "loss" for the Redskins FO, we can separate Griffin from the expectations that 3 first round picks and a second would normally create. If we can accept that the Redskins got worse in this deal, I think we can judge RG3 in comparison to all highly drafted NFL quarterbacks, instead of the player who returned the greatest compensation in the last 12 NFL seasons.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I mean, T.J. Yates was never plan A, but he was taken in the 6th round last year, and ended up quarterbacking the pound-for-pound best team last year as a rookie. Odds were always going to be against him to win the whole thing, but all the Texans needed was a guy who would be pushing in the right direction at the quarterback position. And there are more than 32 guys like that in the league.

The Redskins, however, cannot get to where the Texans were simply by having Griffin push the team in the right direction. He is the team. Already.

I don't think the Redskins deserve to be ridiculed for making what was a very defensible trade. But by calling this trade a "loss" for the Redskins FO, we can separate Griffin from the expectations that 3 first round picks and a second would normally create. If we can accept that the Redskins got worse in this deal, I think we can judge RG3 in comparison to all highly drafted NFL quarterbacks, instead of the player who returned the greatest compensation in the last 12 NFL seasons.

Well when Schaub went down so did the hopes of the entire fan base. Nobody truly believed they'd win with TJ Yates. I'm unsure whether Schaub could have gotten it done either, but with Yates, forget it.

I'm not interested in separating Griffin from those expectations. You seem to think those expectations are unreasonably high. Not sure why, everyone who knows something about football seems to think Griffin's one of the best to come out since Manning.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Well when Schaub went down so did the hopes of the entire fan base. Nobody truly believed they'd win with TJ Yates. I'm unsure whether Schaub could have gotten it done either, but with Yates, forget it.

I'm not interested in separating Griffin from those expectations. You seem to think those expectations are unreasonably high. Not sure why, everyone who knows something about football seems to think Griffin's one of the best to come out since Manning.

He is, but the guy he's most similar to (Aaron Rodgers) couldn't find a team to take him in the draft and even as recently as 2008, played for a team that drafted a quarterback in the first two rounds because they just didn't know what they had in him.

I mean, it's not unreasonable to believe that as good as RG3 is, that the Redskins find themselves making an educated guess in 2015 on whether to offer him a second contract or move in a different direction. It could have easily happened with the Packers and Rodgers, if the front office that drafted him wasn't still there.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

He is, but the guy he's most similar to (Aaron Rodgers) couldn't find a team to take him in the draft and even as recently as 2008, played for a team that drafted a quarterback in the first two rounds because they just didn't know what they had in him.

I mean, it's not unreasonable to believe that as good as RG3 is, that the Redskins find themselves making an educated guess in 2015 on whether to offer him a second contract or move in a different direction. It could have easily happened with the Packers and Rodgers, if the front office that drafted him wasn't still there.

It's totally unreasonable to believe that. Rodgers sat for two (three?) seasons first, so naturally data was incomplete. RG3 will play immediately (there's certainly no Favre in his way here). They'll have all the info they need to decide on a big contract in 2015.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

He is, but the guy he's most similar to (Aaron Rodgers) couldn't find a team to take him in the draft and even as recently as 2008, played for a team that drafted a quarterback in the first two rounds because they just didn't know what they had in him.

I mean, it's not unreasonable to believe that as good as RG3 is, that the Redskins find themselves making an educated guess in 2015 on whether to offer him a second contract or move in a different direction. It could have easily happened with the Packers and Rodgers, if the front office that drafted him wasn't still there.

If Griffin isn't worth resigning, then the current FO will not be here, and he won't be resigned. If he is, the current FO will be here, and he will be resigned. I doubt it will be based on any guessing period.