Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice

[biffle]

Originally Posted by 30gut

With Griffin the gamble is the same as with any rookie QB where historically the success rate is right around 50/50 its even lower when using the 'franchise' QB or 'elite' QB label as the measure of success.

The real world doesn't work that way. Griffin has virtually nothing in common with Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell, whether you're looking at backgrounds, education, skillset, production, character or temperments. Not to mention, Griffin will be stepping into a situation that will likely bear little resemblence to what the other 2 walked into.

So, to suggest the former's chances of success decline by some percentage because of the failures of the latter two is really wrongheaded, at absolute best.

[SirClintonPortis]

Originally Posted by biffle

The real world doesn't work that way. Griffin has virtually nothing in common with Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell, whether you're looking at backgrounds, education, skillset, production, character or temperments. Not to mention, Griffin will be stepping into a situation that will likely bear little resemblence to what the other 2 walked into.

So, to suggest the former's chances of success decline by some percentage because of the failures of the latter two is really wrongheaded, at absolute best.

Ah, conditional probability. How I did not expect to see you here. (nerd moment)

[30gut]

Where did I suggest Griffin chances of success decline?

I also missed the part of my post where I made any comparison of Griffin to Leaf or Jamarcus?

I'll chalk it up to an honest mistake.

Cheers-

[biffle]

Originally Posted by 30gut

Where did I suggest Griffin chances of success decline?

I also missed the part of my post where I made any comparison of Griffin to Leaf or Jamarcus?

I'll chalk it up to an honest mistake.

Cheers-

If you're using a percentage of what previous QBs did as the chances of a current QB succeeding, then that is exactly what you're doing. The chances of Griffin or anyone else working out don't have anything to do with what players they had nothing in common with did or did not do.

There's a reason some organizations draft better than others. It's because you're not throwing names into a hat and you have an x percent chance that it wil turn out to be a good player.

Leaf and Russell are good examples because they are QBs who were drafted extremely high and didn't work out, therefore-by what ever standard you're using - the 'chance' Griffin works out is supposedly much lower because of them. And those are two players we now know were doomed by horrible attitudes and work ethics, whcih makes them about as similar to Robert Griffin as Danny Devito is.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by biffle

If you're using a percentage of what previous QBs did as the chances of a current QB succeeding, then that is exactly what you're doing. The chances of Griffin or anyone else working out don't have anything to do with what players they had nothing in common with did or did not do.

biffle, the percentage is the percentage.
You don't get to pick and choose (cherry pick).

Originally Posted by biffle

Leaf and Russell are good examples because they are QBs who were drafted extremely high and didn't work out, therefore-by what ever standard you're using - the 'chance' Griffin works out is supposedly much lower because of them. And those are two players we now know were doomed by horrible attitudes and work ethics, whcih makes them about as similar to Robert Griffin as Danny Devito is.

Dude, c'mon.
You're inventing a point and making a comparison of your own choosing, then arguing against it.

And I'll repeat it here in case you forgot:

Notice again that my quote doesn't contain the comparisons you claim then argue against.

[biffle]

Originally Posted by 30gut

biffle, the percentage is the percentage.
You don't get to pick and choose (cherry pick).

Dude, c'mon.
You're inventing a point and making a comparison of your own choosing, then arguing against it.

And I'll repeat it here in case you forgot:
Notice again that my quote doesn't contain the comparisons you claim then argue against.

Statistics will only do you any good if you know how to use them.

Making decisions on what players to acquire based on 'odds' that are calculated by comparing them to completely dissimilar players is a textbook way to misuse them.

People who do things like that are the same people who come back years later and swear that stats are worthless and they can't believe anyone would be dumb enough to listen to them.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by biffle

Making decisions on what players to acquire based on 'odds' that are calculated by comparing them to completely dissimilar players is a textbook way to misuse them.

You know what would be great? If you could actually post/quote where I've compared Griffin to players that are dissimilar to him?
But, I'm sure you won't because I didn't make that comparison you did.

It would be nice to actually discuss the entire content of my post rather than your repeated false claims, especially since you completely gloss over the fact that I actually like Griffin as prospect.

Originally Posted by 30gut

I love Robert Griffin as a prospect.

The question for me is simple:
Do you think Peyton Manning will be back to 100% (or close) by training camp/Sept?

If yes then I don't see why/how anyone would be against singing PM.
You can always draft the next great QB prospect in a later draft, there will be other great QB prospects there always are.

[biffle]

Originally Posted by 30gut

You know what would be great? If you could actually post/quote where I've compared Griffin to players that are dissimilar to him?
But, I'm sure you won't because I didn't make that comparison you did.

It would be nice to actually discuss the entire content of my post rather than your repeated false claims, especially since you completely gloss over the fact that I actually like Griffin as prospect.

When you use the percentage of first round QBs who have worked out, you are using all of them, including Russell and Leaf, whom I used as examples of prospects who drag down that percentage.

Is that really so far beyond your ability to comprehend?

[biffle]

Originally Posted by 30gut

You know what would be great? If you could actually post/quote where I've compared Griffin to players that are dissimilar to him?
But, I'm sure you won't because I didn't make that comparison you did.

It would be nice to actually discuss the entire content of my post rather than your repeated false claims, especially since you completely gloss over the fact that I actually like Griffin as prospect.

When you use the percentage of first round QBs who have worked out, you are using all of them, including Russell and Leaf, whom I used as examples of prospects who drag down that percentage.

Is that really so far beyond your ability to comprehend?

[NC_Skins]

Originally Posted by biffle

The real world doesn't work that way. Griffin has virtually nothing in common with Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell, whether you're looking at backgrounds, education, skillset, production, character or temperments. Not to mention, Griffin will be stepping into a situation that will likely bear little resemblence to what the other 2 walked into.

So, to suggest the former's chances of success decline by some percentage because of the failures of the latter two is really wrongheaded, at absolute best.

Numbers are what they are. Since 1998 (till 2009), there is a 41% success chance of landing a very good QB in the top 5 of the NFL draft.

Griffin or Luck chances at becoming a successful draft pick are still the same. They still have a 41% chance. It is what it is. I would imagine that there is a high probability that one of the two is going to bust.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by NC_Skins

Numbers are what they are. Since 1998 (till 2009), there is a 41% success chance of landing a very good QB in the top 5 of the NFL draft.

Griffin or Luck chances at becoming a successful draft pick are still the same. They still have a 41% chance. It is what it is. I would imagine that there is a high probability that one of the two is going to bust.

Missing on Griffin isn't any different than missing on Reilly Reiff, et al. Your chance of salvaging your 2012 draft in the face of an misevaluation at the top of the first round is much greater if you don't make the trade, but it's kind of silly IMO to think of the draft as a proposition where you try to do the least harm.

You get to draft the most valuable assets in the NFL and sign them for 20%-30% of their market value. With that advantage, I wouldn't think of the trade up possibility for Griffin as a huge risk. Think of it as cost-benefit instead. You're not really risking anything of note.