Around the NFL week 10

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by SirClintonPortis

It was only a few inches. A QB sneak is practically unstoppable with that kind of distance. The Falcons' mistake was opting for a slow-developing power run instead of the QB sneak.

I agree that the play call was lousy and a sneak was a better call.

That said, I reject the argument that if you punt to Brees, he will beat you. the Falcons had already stopped Brees several times. It is not like the score was a 48-48 shootout. A good punt would have made Brees go a long way for the win.

If you miss on the "practically unstoppable," it is game over. The negative risk was not worth it.

[SirClintonPortis]

Originally Posted by Lotus

That said, I reject the argument that if you punt to Brees, he will beat you. the Falcons had already stopped Brees several times. It is not like the score was a 48-48 shootout. A good punt would have made Brees go a long way for the win.

I disagree. The Falcons stopped Brees once in overtime. However, the Saints were able to sustain three long drives on the Falcons on three of their scoring possessions in the 3rd and 4th quarters.

First Saints drive in the 2nd half:
Missed FG at the ATL 22
Drive started at the NO 18

Second Saints drive in the 2nd half:
Touchdown
Drive started at the NO 18

Third Saints drive
FG from turnover. Drive stated on the ATL 26

4th drive
FG on a drive that started from the NO 12

5th Saints drive
Onside kick gives Saints good field position at the ATL 44. They got to the ATL 27 and kicked a FG, but a holding call screwed them over.

[SirClintonPortis]

Originally Posted by Lotus

If you miss on the "practically unstoppable," it is game over. The negative risk was not worth it.

I would say it depends. If it is 50/50, aka 50%, you don't take the risk. But if the risk of failure is only 1 in 10, I think it's a risk worth taking. And with QB sneaks, they truly are really hard to stop.

Advanced NFL Stats: QB Sneak vs. RB Dive
According to here, out of 31 attempt QB sneaks with 1 yard to go, 82% of them succeed. Or they work about 4 out of 5 times.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Lotus

I agree that the play call was lousy and a sneak was a better call.

That said, I reject the argument that if you punt to Brees, he will beat you. the Falcons had already stopped Brees several times. It is not like the score was a 48-48 shootout. A good punt would have made Brees go a long way for the win.

If you miss on the "practically unstoppable," it is game over. The negative risk was not worth it.

The AAS probability model suggests that the Falcons were still 18% to win after the turnover on downs.

That's everything that could go wrong for the Saints. A missed FG, a turnover, a tipped pass, holding, dropped snap. The game is not over right there. I think 18% is still a high estimate, just because of how efficient the Saints are at getting points. But that's only fuel for the argument that the clearest path is to go for it, and get it.

The other thing to point out is that in their last drive of regulation, the Saints had the ball at the same spot they got it in overtime in a high leverage situation, and they ended up punting. So like the Belichick decision in 2009, the team isn't dead in the water among failing to get a first down. It's just that winning is unlikely.

I think too often people look at punting as a free 40 yards. I think if we look back at the prior 6 Redskins seasons before this one, the amount of times the Redskins actually moved a team 40+ yards back on a punt was probably close to zero. I'm thinking 80% or more of all punts increase the likelihood that the team that punts loses the game, in one way or another. And I think that Mike Smith is smart for realizing that punting that ball is merely one of a lot of bad options.

It's better than the outcome the Falcons got, but Smith is right to say if they couldn't get a yard, they shouldn't have won the game.

[GMScud]

Rex Ryan cursing at the fans. LOL. About 25 seconds into the video. "Belichick is better than you!" "Shut the f*ck up!!"

I love seeing that guy lose football games.

Jets Coach Rex Ryan Curses at Fan - YouTube