Updated: Hightower Torn ACL/Moss Out 5-7 Weeks

[SBXVII]

Originally Posted by SirClintonPortis

T.O's extra 400-600 yards and whatever TDs(possibly 3-4) this season would mean nothing to us this season if we don't get a ton of wins from him. Even if we add him, we're not really in contention for the Super Bowl. We are 3-3 now, and the addition of an aging WR with diminishing skills who does not know the playbook will not make us suddenly go 7-3, finish with a 10-6 record, and take us to the NFC Championship game, or even past the divisional round. You add T.O to increase your win total. I don't see him increasing it that much to be worth it. T.O will not save us from being stomped by one of the "real" contenders like Green Bay or New Orleans.

Those extras yards and touchdowns also do not rollover to the next season. He'll have to start from square one and outproduce Gaffney or Amstrong. That means better stats than either one of them.

Then, there's the matter that T.O is might be a lemon and thus might not better than what we have. His production has decreased(hasn't had a 1000 yard season since he was in Dallas) and he is coming off an ACL injury. His speed is not going to be what it was when he was 27 and he very well may not get that burst back until next season, if he ever does. A receiver with such limited athleticism will not be making a great impact for us.

T.O is well-known for his dropsies too. He even led the league in them in 2006. A drop machine can hardly be considered worthy of a possession receiver role, where sure hands are an absolute necessity.

With so many potential flaws, I see Terrence Austin as much better alternative. He has a rapport with Beck and does NOT drop the ball willy-nilly.

Would you rather play with Moss or with out? Obviously with him. See while he's playing he opens up the field for AA or Gaffney or Stallworth to get open. Now that he's out 5-6 weeks there will be no one to take away the defenses attention so those other WR's can get open. We need someone who can replace Moss, ie; T.O. I'm not saying he needs to be put on deep routes or go routes, I'm simply saying the team could use him for the short to intermediate routes which would open up the deep field for AA or Gaffney because defenses would have to double up on T.O.

Funny that you mention he would not know the playbook or know which route to run when we have someone on the team right now who fits that mold ..... Hankerson. Plus he doesn't need to know the whole playbook, he just needs to know 10-20 plays.

I also was suprised how you mentioned T.O. drops passes all the time, have you not watched every week when AA drops passes? Gaffney? How about Davis who seems to drop his fair share of passes and thats not counting his tipped passes that lead to interceptions.

Worse case scenario T.O. comes in and plays just as bad as what we already have. Best case scenario is he comes in and catches a few passes. I think we all know this team is not going to the SB. But catching a few passes for 1st downs might help move the chains which might result in more opportunities for scores.

[SirClintonPortis]

Originally Posted by SBXVII

Would you rather play with Moss or with out? Obviously with him. See while he's playing he opens up the field for AA or Gaffney or Stallworth to get open. Now that he's out 5-6 weeks there will be no one to take away the defenses attention so those other WR's can get open. We need someone who can replace Moss, ie; T.O. I'm not saying he needs to be put on deep routes or go routes, I'm simply saying the team could use him for the short to intermediate routes which would open up the deep field for AA or Gaffney because defenses would have to double up on T.O.

Ok, let's assume T.O can do what you say. Now, specify the concrete benefits T.O gives to us both production-wise and in wins given. What's his expected stat line and how many extra wins do we get for him now and in the future? I've already given my estimates of 2 wins, 400-600 yards(700 if he's really hot), and 3-4 TDs out of the remaining 10 games we have.
T.O needs to provide large benefits to be deemed worthy of the roster spot. The rationale is simple. Since he will provide NOTHING very soon(retirement is looming for him and he might not survive the competition next year), we have to cash out on everything he's got right now. We want stats and need wins from him to make it a worthwhile pickup. I do not see enough wins or stats from T.O now to pick him up over scouring the league for castoffs and the like who might help us win for years after this season.

If I had to guess, I say we'd go 6-10 if we just stick with what we have and everything goes wrong for us for the rest of the season.

Funny that you mention he would not know the playbook or know which route to run when we have someone on the team right now who fits that mold ..... Hankerson. Plus he doesn't need to know the whole playbook, he just needs to know 10-20 plays.

T.O will have a learning curve regardless of whoever else is on the roster. For a short-term vet with a low ceiling, he needs to produce big now or else he's not serving the purpose of his acquistion, which is more wins and more stats.

The only reason Hankerson has a roster spot now is that he is a risky gamble(VERY, VERY low probability) that he will provide some VERY large future returns, just like every other draft pick. T.O is _possibly_ less risky and is supposed to provide some current returns; he has nothing to provide in the future. The matter is which is more valuable to the team: getting returns right now or hunting for future returns.

I also was suprised how you mentioned T.O. drops passes all the time, have you not watched every week when AA drops passes? Gaffney? How about Davis who seems to drop his fair share of passes and thats not counting his tipped passes that lead to interceptions.

Just what are you surprised about? I stated a fact about T.O. A fact about T.O does not change facts about anyone else. If your retort's purpose is to try and prove that T.O is not a pass dropper, you are unsuccessful. We already have players who drops passes. That doesn't make T.O any less likely to keep on dropping passes either. It just means they all are pass droppers. So, the tiebreaker is determine by [potentially] what else each respective WR gives to the team. T.O right now could give more than either Armstrong or Gaffney, but time is not on his side nor is he a guarantee to outdo either. It'll probably be a lateral move when all is said and done.

Worse case scenario T.O. comes in and plays just as bad as what we already have. Best case scenario is he comes in and catches a few passes. I think we all know this team is not going to the SB. But catching a few passes for 1st downs might help move the chains which might result in more opportunities for scores.

For a short-term "sure thing" guy like T.O, he needs to help provide many wins and take us over the top, not just have us save face and finish 8-8.
People will not remember these hypothetical extra wins T.O provides the team this season if there is no "success" this season. This season would just be shelved just like every "unsuccessful" season that has passed whether we go 8-8 or 4-12.

The extra stats T.O provides in 2011-2012 will also do nothing for the 2012-2013 season, especially if he isn't here for that season. Since the draft and FA provide a ton of fresh blood to compete with T.O, him not being here in 2012-2013 is VERY likely.

The only way I'd be on board for T.O is if we cut Stallworth for him. And even then, I'd argue that we could be signing another depth OL or scouring other team's practice squad for something with fresher legs and the ever-so-slight chance (think .0001 probability) of being something more than a goose-egg three years from now.