2011 NFL Draft

[skinster]

Originally Posted by mbedner3420

Finally, a 'Skins fan with some common sense! I agree completely with the assessment that we need a solid QB prospect.

I don't think anybody disagrees with you that to be competative in this league a franchise QB is a necessity. The problem is making sure we pick the right guy.
I'd say there's only 15 established QB's in the NFL right now that have shown they have potential to get it done. I'd say 5 of them (Schaub, Brady, Romo, Cassell, Brees) were not drafted in the first round. I'd say that of the 10 drafted in the 1st round, only 4 of them were not taken in the top 5 (Rodgers, Roethesberger, Freeman, Cutler). This means that there are only 5 proven QB's in the NFL drafted in the first two rounds, but not in the top 5 that have shown they can get it done.
These guys have about 10 productive years, which means that there is a 50% chance that we are even in the right year to find a prospect. Not to mention that there are about 6 QBs projected to go in the first two rounds. Lets say 2 of them go in the top 5 that is a 25% chance that we will find the right guy if we are in the right year. There is an 11.5% chance that we will be able to accurately predict who our QB of the future will be.
The issue isn't if we need a good qb prospect, its if we believe he is in this draft. To take a QB because you need a qb, not because you genuinely believe in him is a waste of a draft pick. It also sets us back even further from finding our real franchise qb. No team will draft a QB if they have a prospect of the future on their team

[Terpfan76]

Originally Posted by skinster

I don't think anybody disagrees with you that to be competative in this league a franchise QB is a necessity. The problem is making sure we pick the right guy.
I'd say there's only 15 established QB's in the NFL right now that have shown they have potential to get it done. I'd say 5 of them (Schaub, Brady, Romo, Cassell, Brees) were not drafted in the first round. I'd say that of the 10 drafted in the 1st round, only 4 of them were not taken in the top 5 (Rodgers, Roethesberger, Freeman, Cutler). This means that there are only 5 proven QB's in the NFL drafted in the first two rounds, but not in the top 5 that have shown they can get it done.
These guys have about 10 productive years, which means that there is a 50% chance that we are even in the right year to find a prospect. Not to mention that there are about 6 QBs projected to go in the first two rounds. Lets say 2 of them go in the top 5 that is a 25% chance that we will find the right guy if we are in the right year. There is an 11.5% chance that we will be able to accurately predict who our QB of the future will be.
The issue isn't if we need a good qb prospect, its if we believe he is in this draft. To take a QB because you need a qb, not because you genuinely believe in him is a waste of a draft pick. It also sets us back even further from finding our real franchise qb. No team will draft a QB if they have a prospect of the future on their team

I agree. Drafting a qb just for the sake of taking one is silly. There really is no one qb who stands out as a franchise qb this season. I'd rather the team fill other areas of need and then take a qb next year which appears to have a much better crop of players available.

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by Terpfan76

I agree. Drafting a qb just for the sake of taking one is silly. There really is no one qb who stands out as a franchise qb this season. I'd rather the team fill other areas of need and then take a qb next year which appears to have a much better crop of players available.

I agree on not taking one for the sake of taking one. However most of the franchise QB's that currently playing in the league weren't well received on draft day. Peyton Manning and Michael Vick are the only first round QB's I can remember where people had no problem with them on draft day. Maybe Leftwich and Leinart and we all know how they turned out.

Unless you're drafting Andrew Luck you will almost never find a QB that the overwhelming majority is comfortable with. Heck most of the people here wanted to pass on Bradford last year. Bet that virtually everyone would kill to have him now.

Also next years class after Luck isn't looking very good at all. Barkley isn't likely to come out and even if he is we won't be in position to draft him. Foles could go either way to. This year we have 8 QB's that are worthy of being taken before round 3. It might not be a top heavy class but it's still very deep and the potential is certainly there for someone to be developed by Shanahan.

Anyway don't worry. You guys might not like Locker on draft day but you'll grow into him.

[rypper11]

Originally Posted by Terpfan76

I agree. Drafting a qb just for the sake of taking one is silly. There really is no one qb who stands out as a franchise qb this season. I'd rather the team fill other areas of need and then take a qb next year which appears to have a much better crop of players available.

Drafting only for need is always a bad idea but really horrible at the qb position. It's even trickier this year because he won't get the playbook until possibly August or September. Rex is serviceable for 2011.