NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

Did you use these same variables for your projections on Rattay, Quinn, and Gradkowski

No. Quinn's college statistics are one of the 45 reference points I'm using to make the regression however. Gradkowski stats aren't, currently, but I could add him fairly easily.

I don't think I've ever looked up Rattay's college stats, but thought that his NFL performance warranted a longer NFL shelf life.

My pre-2007 Quinn projection was based on the old football outsiders formula that used only completion percentage and college starts, plus a great deal of game tape reference. It's the growing inaccuracy of the old system that is driving me to design a better one.

As you would expect, most of this work is preliminary, and unrefined. I felt comfortable posting the comparables though, under the admission that I expect the accuracy to improve as we get closer to draft day (when projected draft position can be used as more than a binary "first-round, not-first-round")