Football Outsider win predictions

[GTripp0012]

Read through the Redskins chapter last night and, well, it didn't explain the projection very well.

The Redskins were given basically an even spread between being a 10-win team and a 6 win team, so this prediction really isn't saying that much.

The 11% chance of winning 11+ games does seem about half as much as it should be. In the article, Doug Farrar went at length to tell us how Haynesworth makes us a much better defense, and the offense should be better in the second year under Zorn, and then cites the competitiveness of the division as a reason to expect another average season, but we never really get a concrete reason that the projections don't have us as an improved team. I was disappointed in that.

One thing they said was that we didn't get unlucky with injuries last year, at least less more so in the first half of the season than the second, but their reasons for our two worst performances as a team coming in the last three weeks include, "golly gee, there was probably a reason there." So I think that is reflected in the projections.

So it comes down to this: if you think the last three games was a small sample aberration from our true team last year, they are probably under projecting us by at least a game and a half. If you think those games show legitimate problems with our offense and defense that were only mitigated by our offseason, then this is probably an 8-win team.

I'm doing an interview with them, so I'll have more to say later.