Somebody please try to convince me that the FO has a plan.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat

Across the league, only 50% of first round draft picks become solid starters. If you hit one year, chances are, you’re going to miss the next. Yes, it would be nice to “hit” every year, but that’s just not realistic. Statistically speaking, it takes TWO first rounder’s to get one great player anyways. So in that light, why NOT trade two first rounders for a guy who you feel is an absolute LOCK to be your franchise QB for the next 10 years?

If the criteria is "solid starter", as defined as a player who you don't need to replace three years into his career, then 50% isn't even close to accurate. 50% seems to be about the rate at which you seem to get the player the scouts think you are getting. But observe, the rarity of the prospect who gets taken in the first round, and teams just totally miss on:

2004
20. Kenechi Udeze
22. JP Losman
23. Marcus Tubbs
25. Ahmad Carroll
27. Jason Babin
31. Rashaun Woods

2005
1. Alex Smith
7. Troy Williamson
10. Mike Williams
17. David Pollack** (freak injury)
18. Erasmus James
19. Alex Barron
26. Chris Spencer

2006
3. Vince Young
16. Jason Allen
18. Bobby Carpenter
22. Manny Lawson
26. John McCargo
31. Kelly Jennings

2007 (Small Sample Size -- not error proof)
1. JaMarcus Russell
8. Jamaal Anderson
16. Justin Harrell
17. Jarvis Moss
26. Anthony Spencer
27. Robert Meachem
30. Craig Davis

2008 (projected)
6. Vernon Gholston
8. Derrick Harvey
14. Chris Williams ** (chronic injury)
25. Mike Jenkins
29. Kentwan Balmer

This is not an exahaustive list of players who disappointed as first round picks, but it is a list of players who never gave their team positive value over replacement level. But the point is, this is only 20% of the players drafted in the last five years. Historic numbers might be closer to 50%, but since the draft went mainstream, you have an 80% chance of landing a player who can fit somewhere on your team, and not represent a weakness.

If you limit the sample to top ten picks, it gets all the way up to an 88% hit rate. Given of course, you don't want to end up with a minor contributing meathead like Reggie Williams (who counts in the 88% here) if you are picking in the top ten, but Reggie Williams did provide some value as a receiver in his five years in Jacksonville.

The 50% hit rate you mention is the rate of getting an NFL type player out of a third round pick. Third rounders in recent history have about a half-shot of never amounting to anything. But ANY team that does it's homework can get a player in the first round. Sure, if you are looking for the next Larry Fitzgerald, you aren't very likely to find him in the draft. But my best estimates show that the difference between the value of the average first round pick and an unmittigated Rashaun Woods type bust with the same pick is roughly 4-5 wins over the life of the rookie contract.

It's not quite as bad if you just trade the pick away instead of use it on a bust, but still, the point is that a first round pick is significant.

For the Bears to get value on the Cutler trade, Cutler has to remain equally effective under Center for the Bears and healthy every week for the next five years (at his current production). Basically, the Bears vastly overpaid for his services, and need a hall of fame type career to win this deal. Nothing from Cutler's first three seasons suggests to me that he's capable of being a Manning/Brady type or winning multiple Super Bowls. If he ends up doing so, tip your cap to the Bears for a profitable gamble. He's certainly young enough to be that guy.