King predicts Haynesworth to Redskins

[BigHairedAristocrat]

Ok, found your post, sorry i missed it earlier.

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Agreed. BHA's logic regarding the return of a cap is unsound. He assumes that:

1) A salary floor for NFL franchises could not be set through other means and
2) The players would have a financial incentive to agree to a cap. They most certainly do not.

I guess this is how i look at it:

1) Through what means do you think a salary floor could be established without involving the owners? I ask this because:
2) The owners would NEVER agree to a salary floor without a salary cap. They have no financial reason to do so.

here is my logic on the series of events as i see them unfolding:

2010
1. Assuming the CBA expires, there will be no salary floor or salary cap in 2010. Since there will be very few players eligible for unrestricted free agency (due to players needing to have 6 years of NFL service to become eligible), very few players will be able to sign big money deals. That, combined with the declining economy means there will not be that much money thrown around in free agency in 2010. BOTTOM LINE: The huge payday many players are foolishly expecting simply won't happen.

2. While few players will be seeing signicant salary increases in 2010, a large number of players will not get the modest pay increases they are used to. Thats because there will be no salary floor. Ever year, small market teams like Greenbay, Arizona, and Detroit are well under the salary floor. Instead of pursuing big-name free agents, these teams typically extend contracts and pay their own players more money in that year. Its pretty much the exact opposite of what the skins do - we constantly push money off and backload contracts to free up cap space. Well these teams give their players money up front just to meet the salary floor. If you hadnt guessed, players really really like this. However, in 2010, teams will have no incentive to do this, and players wont get paid. BOTTOM LINE: Players on small market teams will not get the "raises" they are accustomed to.

3. Since 2010 is uncapped, it means teams that cannot release aging, underperforming veterans due to the cap hit it would normally create... will get to release all those aging, underperforming veterans. And how are these aging, underperforming veterans going to feel when they are released and on the market and no one is going to pay them anywhere near the money they would have been making if they had stayed on their former team? Not too happy, i imagine. BOTTOM LINE: These players will be screwed by the capless year.

2011
4. Ok, 2010 was rough on players with less than 6 years of NFL service but now everyone who would have been a free agent in 2010 plus those players who were normally scheduled to become free agents in 2011 are eligible for free agency in a capless year... but will they get the payday they are hoping for? No, because the owners are preparing for a lockout and they arent going to sign players to huge contracts only to have them sit. Lockouts arent good for anybody. BOTTOM LINE: Players will finally realize that the CBA with its salary cap and salary floor rules was really a good system. Now that they arent getting paid, they are going to make sure the Union and the Owners work something out.

How does all this get resloved? I dont know exactly. But a salary cap/salary floor system is in the players interest and its in the owners interest. The main reason the owners voted to void the current CBA is because guys like Dan Snyder and Jerry Jones dont think that they should have to give their hard earned money to lazy owners of small market teams. So the big market teams voted to get rid of the CBA.

So why did the lazy owners of small market teams want to cancel the CBA? Well, they are lazy and they like getting free money from guys like Snyder and Jerry jones, and that want more of that money. However, if they cant get that money, then the next best thing is to get rid of the salary floor, so they can stop incurring those pesky expenses like multi-million dollar player salaries.

In the end, the current CBA structure is the best thing in the history of sports, but its not perfect. It needs to be tweaked. And the only way the players and owners can continue making money is to work something out. I personally think the players will cave in first.

once they see they arent getting paid as much as they thought in an uncapped 2010 and they owners threaten a lockout in 2011, theyll make sure the union gets something done. And that something will have to include a salary cap and a salary floor. 2010 will be uncapped. If nothing is worked out prior to the 2011 lockout, that season may be uncapped too. But the NFL cannot afford to go without a season for more than one year, so you can better beleive it will be back by 2012 and it will be capped. (Unless of course, the large market teams form their own capless league and the small market teams join the UFL, but thats another post entirely)