Our WRs in 2009... My Thoughts

[SOUL-SKINS]

[B[/B][/B]

Originally Posted by 44Deezel

My point has always been that other teams would have found a way to get better production out of Thomas, Kelly and Davis in their rookie season (or any of our rookies for that matter).

Our receiving corps was one of the worst in the league, so the rooks couldn't have possibly been much worse (Kelly on a unicycle is better than Thrash). I'm not willing to give the coaching staff the benefit of the doubt, since they can't point to a single rookie that contributed by design. It took an injury to Doughty to figure out what Horton could do with playing time, so that was pure serendipity.

I fear we're going to spend next season watching Kelly and Thomas go through some of the growing pains we saw from DeSean Jackson this past season (remember all those drops against us?). Just my opinion.

What do you mean? If Thomas and Kelly have the same type season as DeSean Jackson had last year i'd be ecstatic.

[The Goat]

Originally Posted by SOUL-SKINS

[B[/B][/B]

What do you mean? If Thomas and Kelly have the same type season as DeSean Jackson had last year i'd be ecstatic.

Me too. One of them at least should be near that level or the braintrust @ Redskins Park has got to look at the coaching situation... HIXON!

[SC Skins Fan]

Originally Posted by 44Deezel

Roddy White didn't contribute until the Falcons got a legitimate QB and CJ had 756 yards his rookie year... and we all know what DeSean Jackson and Eddie Royal did this year and guys like Colston have done in previous years.

WR and RB are actually the positions where rookies DO tend to contribue right out the shoot. However, the best way to guarantee they won't contribute is to keep them on the sidelines, as evidenced by the Skins coaching staff.

I think if you look at the history it does suggest that wide receivers take time to develop. Everyone knows that. The problem comes in merely taking that truism and spouting it reflexively to explain the lack of production from the Redskins rookie pass catchers. Again, thinking about past precedent, Devin Thomas' numbers this year suggest to me that he will never be a very productive player in the NFL. Wide receivers don't just emerge from absolutely no where and then suddenly "get it" in year three. There is some progression. Just take the case of Roddy White. Sure he was relatively unproductive his first two seasons, but he had 446 and 503 yards receiving respectively. He also had two 100 yard receiving games and two 90+ yard receiving games over that span.

If you look at every wide receiver drafted in the first two rounds since 2000, here is a list of every player who failed to catch 30 passes his rookie year (a mark chosen by me as a sign of basic competency):

R. Jay Soward (14, 154, 1), Todd Pinkston (10, 181, 0), Freddie Mitchell (21, 283, 1), Santana Moss (2, 40, 0), Reggie Wayne (27, 345, 0), Robert Ferguson (0, 0, 0), Javon Walker (23, 319, 1), Tim Carter (2, 37, 0), Reche Caldwell (22, 208, 3), Charles Rogers (22, 243, 3), Taylor Jacobs (3, 37, 1), Bethel Johnson (16, 209, 2), Tyrone Calico (18, 297, 4), Reggie Williams (27, 268, 1), Michael Jenkins (7, 119, 0), Rashaun Woods (7, 160, 1), Devery Henderson (0,0,0 [22, 343, 3 second year]), Mike Williams (29, 350, 1), Roddy White (29, 446, 3), Mark Bradley (18, 230, 0), Roscoe Parrish (15, 148, 1), Terrance Murphy (5, 36, 0), Vincent Jackson (3, 59, 0), Chad Jackson (13, 152, 3), Sinorice Moss (5, 25, 0), Robert Meachem (0, 0, 0), Craig Davis (20, 188, 1), Dwayne Jarrett (6, 73, 0), Steve Smith (8, 63, 0)

I have highlighted those players that you can point to if you want to cling to hope that Thomas will turn into a decent player (with Wayne and White being Pro Bowlers; Moss is a different case since he is hurt and compares better to Malcolm Kelly if we want to hope for the very best). But most of the players who went on to become even basic contributers had stats that dwarfed Thomas' (15, 120, 0). The basic point that I take from this exercise is that while receivers often take time to develop they also don't start out life completely clueless (as Thomas clearly was many many times this year). Those who do start out clueless and fail to contribute usually never ever end up contributing. So you can say that it is "too soon to judge" but I think on Thomas we can actually look at past precedent and determine that he will never become a significant contributer in the NFL. He had enough time on the field to do something. He wouldn't have magically become Eddie Royal or DeShaun Jackson if only he had landed in another city.

Kelly is a different case since he was injured most of the year. It really is difficult to get a read on him. As I said above, the best we can hope for with him is a career trajectory that looks something like that of Santana Moss. Apart from Moss there is not much precedent in the past decade of a receiver missing a whole year due to injury and then becoming an important contributer to the team.

Here is a sampling of some other receivers and their rookie statistics:

Larry Fitzgerald (58, 780, 8), Roy Williams (58, 817, 8), Braylon Edwards (injury shortened, 32, 512, 3), Santonio Holmes (49, 824, 2), Greg Jennings (45, 632, 3), Calvin Johnson (48, 756, 4), Dwayne Bowe (70, 995, 5) ... and that is leaving out obvious guys like Royal, Jackson, Andre Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Randy Moss, etc.

[The Goat]

Wow. Actually a lot of rook WRs have posted serious numbers, which you're right SC doesn't bode well for Devin in particular. The only caveat may be his track-record prior to NFL was very short so he's taking in a lot i.e. he may be a special case. Also that the coaches seemed to favor the vets over the rooks.

[Ruhskins]

Originally Posted by The Goat

Wow. Actually a lot of rook WRs have posted serious numbers, which you're right SC doesn't bode well for Devin in particular. The only caveat may be his track-record prior to NFL was very short so he's taking in a lot i.e. he may be a special case. Also that the coaches seemed to favor the vets over the rooks.

If Moss, ARE, Cooley, and Thrash had gone down with injury, the coaches would have had to play Thomas and Kelly. People forget that in Denver and Philly, a lot of their WRs went down with injury.

[Skinsfanmania]

As much as TJ would look great in Burgundy and Gold, it will definitely cost too much money. I think it would be a wise move to go after Bobby Engram as he has played in the WCO in Seattle and will be familiar with Zorn. He is a smart #2 receiver and could free up ARE to work as the #3/4 Receiver as Thomas and Kelly battle out for the other spots.

[SmootSmack]

What's the advantage of bringing in an undersized 36-year old WR who hasn't played more than 13 games in a season in the past 5 years?

[gaudiomatt]

Why don't we get plaxico Buress for no money. thatd be cool in my opinion i don't care if he shot himself hell still ball like pimp. He'll be this years hall.

[warriorzpath]

I share in the sentiment that Hixon either puts in more work or they need to get a new wr coach. 5 years has been a long time.

[BigHairedAristocrat]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

What's the advantage of bringing in an undersized 36-year old WR who hasn't played more than 13 games in a season in the past 5 years?

Thrash definitely needs to be replaced and I thought Engram would be an intriging option for a while, but i have come to the same conclusion as you. other than being a mentor here, he wouldnt be of much use. i think getting a former seahawk veteran receiver is a good idea, but Engram is not the one i would pursue.

[A10sROCK]

Originally Posted by LandrySlice

Get the ball in Deven Eleven's hands, and magic will happen! We need no more recievers for a while! Does anyone know why Rhinehart did not play at all this year, and will he be playing next year at a starting capacity?

According to the latest WP article, many of the coaches think Rhinehart isn't ready as a starter or even backup. Another 2008 draft pick who will need "more time to develop".... or will never be NFL material.

[A10sROCK]

Originally Posted by The Goat

Wow. Actually a lot of rook WRs have posted serious numbers, which you're right SC doesn't bode well for Devin in particular. The only caveat may be his track-record prior to NFL was very short so he's taking in a lot i.e. he may be a special case. Also that the coaches seemed to favor the vets over the rooks.

Our 2008 draft TE couldn't learn the plays. The rookie WR showed up out-of-shape [according to Zorn]. Kelly has bad knees - that every other team in the NFL knew about except us.

Unfortunately, other needs on the team have higher precedent than WR. We have one of the NFL oldest OL and DL's. Our very limited money will go toward those positions and we have to hope our rookies can perform and improve. We may be able to get one new FA WR and hope the guy can perform miracles.

[SBXVII]

I know I keep beating the dead horse, but I had to go look for myself at how many WR's Hixon has been through. I found a lot and I still don't think I got them all. I'm in total shock that he could not develope anyone.

Hixon came in 2004 which means he had all the 2003 WR's and could keep or suggest to let go.

2004:Coles, Thrash, Rod Gardner, Darnarian McCants, Taylor Jacobs, Cliff Russell, Dameane Douglas, and Scott Coleman.

2005:Jacobs, Thrash, McCants, Moss, Patton, Kevin Dyson, Steven Harris, Rich Parson.

2006:Moss, Thrash, Patton, Harris, ARE, Lloyd, Espy.

2007:Moss, ARE, Thrash, Lloyd, Ryan Hoag.

Then there is all the others:
Burl Toler
Horace Gant
Marques Hagans
Maurice Mann
Billy McMullen
Anthony Mix
Malcolm Kelly
Devin Thomas

I count 25 WR's Hixon has had a full season to train, coach, develope thats including everyone ie; Moss, ARE, Thrash and Coles, Patton and Lloyd. 25 WR's and we are down to 5, Moss, ARE, Thrash, Thomas, and Kelly. Hmmm. Shocking. I know some of those WR's sucked or were non drafted rookies but I would like to think he would have had some input as to his evaluation of said WR's and who they should look at bringing in for his developement. Out of 25 we have 5 WR's and 3 were developed elsewhere. Plus many are already calling last years 2 busts.

When you keep running the same expierment ie; bringing in new WR's, and you get the same results all the time, then it's time to look at yourself and what your doing wrong. He's a college coach. not an NFL quality coach. Change is needed.

[44ever]

Wow SBXVII. Thanks for the research. Didn't realize how long the list was. You might be right about a change here

[tryfuhl]

Originally Posted by SBXVII

I know I keep beating the dead horse, but I had to go look for myself at how many WR's Hixon has been through. I found a lot and I still don't think I got them all. I'm in total shock that he could not develope anyone.

Hixon came in 2004 which means he had all the 2003 WR's and could keep or suggest to let go.

2004:Coles, Thrash, Rod Gardner, Darnarian McCants, Taylor Jacobs, Cliff Russell, Dameane Douglas, and Scott Coleman.

2005:Jacobs, Thrash, McCants, Moss, Patton, Kevin Dyson, Steven Harris, Rich Parson.

2006:Moss, Thrash, Patton, Harris, ARE, Lloyd, Espy.

2007:Moss, ARE, Thrash, Lloyd, Ryan Hoag.

Then there is all the others:
Burl Toler
Horace Gant
Marques Hagans
Maurice Mann
Billy McMullen
Anthony Mix
Malcolm Kelly
Devin Thomas

I count 25 WR's Hixon has had a full season to train, coach, develope thats including everyone ie; Moss, ARE, Thrash and Coles, Patton and Lloyd. 25 WR's and we are down to 5, Moss, ARE, Thrash, Thomas, and Kelly. Hmmm. Shocking. I know some of those WR's sucked or were non drafted rookies but I would like to think he would have had some input as to his evaluation of said WR's and who they should look at bringing in for his developement. Out of 25 we have 5 WR's and 3 were developed elsewhere. Plus many are already calling last years 2 busts.

When you keep running the same expierment ie; bringing in new WR's, and you get the same results all the time, then it's time to look at yourself and what your doing wrong. He's a college coach. not an NFL quality coach. Change is needed.

Only a few of them have been anything noteworthy elsewhere but yeah, the first few years are vital for someone to get the right training for the NFL.