Breaking News: Barry Bonds Hits 756

[GTripp0012]

Think Griffey breaks it first?

I think Griffey can hit 756 if he plays 4-5 more years, but if Bonds doesn't retire after this year, I think he will have too many for Griffey to catch.

A Rod could hit 900 homers if he plays to Bonds' current age. That's like 11 more seasons for A-Rod. Concievably, we could be sitting here in September of 2012 when a 37 year old A Rod sets the record and wonder how many more hundreds of homers hes going to hit.

[jsarno]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Think Griffey breaks it first?

I think Griffey can hit 756 if he plays 4-5 more years, but if Bonds doesn't retire after this year, I think he will have too many for Griffey to catch.

A Rod could hit 900 homers if he plays to Bonds' current age. That's like 11 more seasons for A-Rod. Concievably, we could be sitting here in September of 2012 when a 37 year old A Rod sets the record and wonder how many more hundreds of homers hes going to hit.

Griffey is going to be 38 in November. He still has 11 more homers to go before he hits 600. At the moment he is right about on pace to hit 600 by season's end. Assuming he does that, and assuming Bonds hits 10 more, he will have to hit 166 homers. If he's lucky, he has 3 more years left in him, and given his injury prone nature and the fact he plays in the NL, I am not sure he could play a full 3 more season. But assuming he does, he will need to hit over 55 homers a year.
A-rod won't play until he's Bonds age, cause Bonds is only still playing because of steroids. But A-Rod should beat it.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by jsarno

Griffey is going to be 38 in November. He still has 11 more homers to go before he hits 600. At the moment he is right about on pace to hit 600 by season's end. Assuming he does that, and assuming Bonds hits 10 more, he will have to hit 166 homers. If he's lucky, he has 3 more years left in him, and given his injury prone nature and the fact he plays in the NL, I am not sure he could play a full 3 more season. But assuming he does, he will need to hit over 55 homers a year.
A-rod won't play until he's Bonds age, cause Bonds is only still playing because of steroids. But A-Rod should beat it.

I think Griffey can play more than 3 more seasons if hes closing in on a record.

That's what Bonds did.

[jsarno]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I think Griffey can play more than 3 more seasons if hes closing in on a record.

That's what Bonds did.

Again, Bonds shot up, that's how he made it.
Griffey will not be healthy enough.
Look at these numbers:
2000, 145 gms, 40 hrs
2001, 111 gms, 22 hrs
2002, 70 gms, 8 hrs
2003, 53 gms, 13 hrs
2004, 83 gms, 20 hrs
2005, 128 gms, 35 hrs
2006, 109 gms, 27 hrs
2007, 103 gms, 26 hrs
He hasn't been healthy for over 150 games since he was 29 in 1999. He has played in 803 games over 8 seasons, and hit 191 homers. Which means he hits a homer every .237858 games. Considering he is only averaging 100.375 games per season, that means he should average 24 homers per season from here on out (again, on average). That means it would take him almost 7 seasons to reach 766 (assuming Bonds stops at around 766). So he'll be almost 45 by the time this happens.
Even if he hits 35 homers a year, it will still take him close to 5 seasons to beat it. That will put him at close to 43. Considering that Bonds 73 homers after the age of 40 is a record for anyone over 40, I don't think Griffey has that ability unless he's on the juice too.