2022 Midterms thread

[SunnySide]

The chair of the Federal Reserve is often referred to as the second most powerful person in the world, after the president of the U.S. But no matter how powerful the job may be, it doesn’t prevent its holders from making big mistakes.

The Fed chair’s power stems from the ability to guide the federal funds rate, which sets the cost of money for the world economy.

And that’s exactly why Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s total miss on the inflation story in 2021 was so devastating.

“Readings on inflation have increased and are likely to rise somewhat further before moderating,” said Powell in April 2021. “However, these one-time increases in prices are likely to have only transitory effects on inflation.”

If only. Year-over-year inflation rose 4.2% in April 2021—the most recent reading was nearly double that rate, up 8.3% year over year in August 2022. Using the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE inflation is nearly 3 percentage points higher than the Fed’s target rate.

The Fed’s big, ugly inflation whiff meant it’d been forced to ratchet up interest rates dramatically and put its giant balance sheet on a diet.

The Fed policy has forced major declines in stock and bond markets. In fact, 2022 looks like it could be the worst year for investors since the Great Recession.

How did the Fed get inflation so wrong? Let’s take a closer look.
The Global Response to Covid-19

When governments worldwide fought Covid-19 by restricting travel and shuttering their economies in early 2020, markets went into a tailspin.

Stocks dropped, the bond market cratered, and oil prices went negative. Central banks worldwide cut interest rates to zero and reassured citizens that they would do what it took to keep credit markets functioning properly. The Fed did its bit by slashing rates and restarting its quantitative easing (QE) program.

The gambit worked with an unprecedented $2.2 trillion U.S. fiscal stimulus bill: Bond markets stabilized, stocks recovered, and household budgets were fortified through direct payments and expanded unemployment insurance.

Throughout the latter part of 2020, Powell agitated for another massive Congressional relief package.

“Too little support would lead to a weak recovery, creating unnecessary hardship for households and businesses,” Powell said in October 2020, roughly seven months into the Covid-19 pandemic. “The recovery will be stronger and move faster if monetary policy and fiscal policy continue to work side by side to provide support to the economy until it is clearly out of the woods.”

A few months later, Congress passed a $900 billion relief package. Several months after that, Congress passed yet another relief bill, this time to the tune of $1.9 trillion.

The federal government spent roughly $5 trillion to aid the national economy in response to Covid-19 lockdowns and restrictions.

Over the same period, the Fed added more than $3 trillion to its balance sheet through long-term bond purchases. It would tack on more than $1 trillion more by spring 2022.

All in all, the rescue packages worked a little too well.

https://www.forbes.com/advisor/inves...flation-wrong/

Ive been reading a good bit on the inflation ... and youre just wrong chico. Youre just politically blind to any rationale thought that maybe Biden isnt in the top 3 reasons we are having inflation, let alone solely responsible.

Economy is hurting right now.

If Biden or Trump was president ... our economy would be where it is at today (imo).

Except Trump would have politicized and attacked the fed, fired Jerome Powell and a russian flag would be flying over Kyiv right now.

[Chico23231]

Originally Posted by SunnySide

The chair of the Federal Reserve is often referred to as the second most powerful person in the world, after the president of the U.S. But no matter how powerful the job may be, it doesn’t prevent its holders from making big mistakes.

The Fed chair’s power stems from the ability to guide the federal funds rate, which sets the cost of money for the world economy.

And that’s exactly why Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s total miss on the inflation story in 2021 was so devastating.

“Readings on inflation have increased and are likely to rise somewhat further before moderating,” said Powell in April 2021. “However, these one-time increases in prices are likely to have only transitory effects on inflation.”

If only. Year-over-year inflation rose 4.2% in April 2021—the most recent reading was nearly double that rate, up 8.3% year over year in August 2022. Using the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE inflation is nearly 3 percentage points higher than the Fed’s target rate.

The Fed’s big, ugly inflation whiff meant it’d been forced to ratchet up interest rates dramatically and put its giant balance sheet on a diet.

The Fed policy has forced major declines in stock and bond markets. In fact, 2022 looks like it could be the worst year for investors since the Great Recession.

How did the Fed get inflation so wrong? Let’s take a closer look.
The Global Response to Covid-19

When governments worldwide fought Covid-19 by restricting travel and shuttering their economies in early 2020, markets went into a tailspin.

Stocks dropped, the bond market cratered, and oil prices went negative. Central banks worldwide cut interest rates to zero and reassured citizens that they would do what it took to keep credit markets functioning properly. The Fed did its bit by slashing rates and restarting its quantitative easing (QE) program.

The gambit worked with an unprecedented $2.2 trillion U.S. fiscal stimulus bill: Bond markets stabilized, stocks recovered, and household budgets were fortified through direct payments and expanded unemployment insurance.

Throughout the latter part of 2020, Powell agitated for another massive Congressional relief package.

“Too little support would lead to a weak recovery, creating unnecessary hardship for households and businesses,” Powell said in October 2020, roughly seven months into the Covid-19 pandemic. “The recovery will be stronger and move faster if monetary policy and fiscal policy continue to work side by side to provide support to the economy until it is clearly out of the woods.”

A few months later, Congress passed a $900 billion relief package. Several months after that, Congress passed yet another relief bill, this time to the tune of $1.9 trillion.

The federal government spent roughly $5 trillion to aid the national economy in response to Covid-19 lockdowns and restrictions.

Over the same period, the Fed added more than $3 trillion to its balance sheet through long-term bond purchases. It would tack on more than $1 trillion more by spring 2022.

All in all, the rescue packages worked a little too well.

https://www.forbes.com/advisor/inves...flation-wrong/

Ive been reading a good bit on the inflation ... and youre just wrong chico. Youre just politically blind to any rationale thought that maybe Biden isnt in the top 3 reasons we are having inflation, let alone solely responsible.

Economy is hurting right now.

If Biden or Trump was president ... our economy would be where it is at today (imo).

Except Trump would have politicized and attacked the fed, fired Jerome Powell and a russian flag would be flying over Kyiv right now.

Recapping isn’t an arguement and then saying “the rescue package worked to well” is stating “we overdid it, Bigly with too much money.” American rescue plan…only a Democratic voted package which didn’t even have tests ready for the next variant which cost more lives. Incompetence

Again you aren’t addressing the policies of the administration which put us here. Or the fact the President lied and ignored inflation environment. Or the fact the Democrats continued to spend.

It’s bullshit hypotheticals to ease your mind. I guess Putin only invades Ukraine when Obama and Biden are in office, that’s just another coincidence.

[Giantone]

Originally Posted by Chico23231

It’s bullshit hypotheticals to ease your mind. I guess Putin only invades Ukraine when Obama and Biden are in office, that’s just another coincidence.

[SunnySide]

Originally Posted by Chico23231

Recapping isn’t an arguement and then saying “the rescue package worked to well” is stating “we overdid it, Bigly with too much money.” American rescue plan…only a Democratic voted package which didn’t even have tests ready for the next variant which cost more lives. Incompetence

Again you aren’t addressing the policies of the administration which put us here. Or the fact the President lied and ignored inflation environment. Or the fact the Democrats continued to spend.

It’s bullshit hypotheticals to ease your mind. I guess Putin only invades Ukraine when Obama and Biden are in office, that’s just another coincidence.

man .. we are going in circles on this. Maybe we need an inflation thread. Remember, I dont understand this stuff, I only know what i read.

CBO said the inflation act would only decrease inflation by .1 to .2% but it would reduce deficit. The tax increase on middle class wasnt a direct tax but an indirect one bc companies would pass increased tax burden to employees.

Jerome Powell ... the head of the Fed .. the guy in charge of making sure inflation doesnt happen .. the guy who doesnt have a D or an R next to his name even though he was named by Trump .. is they most responsible person for preventing inflation. He admitted he messed up. Now a Dem president has him jacking up the interest rate quicker and higher than ever before .. right before elections. Powell is doing Biden zero favors. Everything I read, we need short term pain to avoid long term pain.

Biden is absolutely taking a bullet from covid coming due and global inflation. Sucks for him. Heavy is the crown. 2024 when we are in a recovery, who ever is wearing the crown will be enjoying an improving economy with good numbers to point to .. that they had no participation in.

Dem spending -- dude, we cant pass shit through the senate bc of sinema/manchin siding with all republicans .. so what dem spending outside of the Inflation reduction Act? The BBB act got killed. Ukraine ... yeah Im kinda for supporting Ukraine and watching russia military bled.

Global inflation right now. US is doing better than most.

[Chico23231]

Originally Posted by SunnySide

man .. we are going in circles on this. Maybe we need an inflation thread. Remember, I dont understand this stuff, I only know what i read.

CBO said the inflation act would only decrease inflation by .1 to .2% but it would reduce deficit. The tax increase on middle class wasnt a direct tax but an indirect one bc companies would pass increased tax burden to employees.

Jerome Powell ... the head of the Fed .. the guy in charge of making sure inflation doesnt happen .. the guy who doesnt have a D or an R next to his name even though he was named by Trump .. is they most responsible person for preventing inflation. He admitted he messed up. Now a Dem president has him jacking up the interest rate quicker and higher than ever before .. right before elections. Powell is doing Biden zero favors. Everything I read, we need short term pain to avoid long term pain.

Biden is absolutely taking a bullet from covid coming due and global inflation. Sucks for him. Heavy is the crown. 2024 when we are in a recovery, who ever is wearing the crown will be enjoying an improving economy with good numbers to point to .. that they had no participation in.

Dem spending -- dude, we cant pass shit through the senate bc of sinema/manchin siding with all republicans .. so what dem spending outside of the Inflation reduction Act? The BBB act got killed. Ukraine ... yeah Im kinda for supporting Ukraine and watching russia military bled.

Global inflation right now. US is doing better than most.

So glad we agree the inflation reduction act does .1 % to help inflation (nothing) and raises taxes on the middle class.

We spend 1.9 trillion and then attempt to pass more spending and it doesn’t work… then do student loan handouts which will cost another 500 billion at the minimum estimate. These are just play numbers to Dems. 2.5 trillion…not a big deal I guess.

Not only did Biden lie about inflation when him and his administration looked at the data to the American people but attempted to spend, purposely restrict energy production another key inflation driver and then tax energy producers on top of it.

You raise interest rates, cut spending, and deregulate business to drive more competition. That’s attacking inflation

We don’t need stimulation like federal student loan handouts, which shocker:

https://twitchy.com/sarahd-313035/20...middle-finger/

In fact, 73% of anticipated recipients say they expect to spend their debt forgiveness on non-essential items, including travel, dining out and new tech, according to a recent survey from Intelligent.com.

Thanks middle class for bailing out the people who need help the least!

[Giantone]

Originally Posted by Chico23231

So glad we agree the inflation reduction act does .1 % to help inflation (nothing) and raises taxes on the middle class.

We spend 1.9 trillion and then attempt to pass more spending and it doesn’t work… then do student loan handouts which will cost another 500 billion at the minimum estimate. These are just play numbers to Dems. 2.5 trillion…not a big deal I guess.

Not only did Biden lie about inflation when him and his administration looked at the data to the American people but continue to attempt to spend, offer no relief on energy prices a key driver and tax energy producers.

You raise interest rates, cut spending, and deregulate business to drive more competition. That’s attacking inflation

We don’t need stimulation like federal student loan handouts, which shocker:

https://twitchy.com/sarahd-313035/20...middle-finger/

In fact, 73% of anticipated recipients say they expect to spend their debt forgiveness on non-essential items, including travel, dining out and new tech, according to a recent survey from Intelligent.com.

Thanks middle class for bailing out the people who need help the least!

STFU