Wft quarterback of the future

[mooby]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

Between 2000 and 2019 there were 56 qb's drafted in the first round. Here is a good article ranking them: https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/...k1gnhl9iqrp2pg

Of the 7 you listed as elite: 4 were 1st rounders, 3 were outside of the first round, and adding in that Rodgers was selected at pick 24, where we almost certainly will be picking before, that means half the qb's you list elite available would theoretically be available when we pick, and also 53 selections that the teams got wrong.

My point is that what is important is that you pick the right qb, and that comes down to Front Office - GM, Scouting and Coach. Now, with the WFT you have the added question of whether the owner will nose around in the selection, and that is where success this year gives RR the extra credibility to keep Dan Snyder at bay.

As for Alex, he is one of those 53 1st rounders, and he certainly is above game manager level. He has that knack to lead winning teams.

I wholeheartedly agree, who you draft at qb is way more important than where you draft, and you can't just go picking a qb if you're gonna ignore all the red flags in hopes that you can be the team that straightens them out.

But Alex Smith this year (as much as I love him and his inspiring comeback story) is barely even game manager level. Maybe he's still knocking the rust off? I give him the benefit of the doubt. But let's look at the numbers of his compadres around the league.

I made this table (thanks AnonEmouse) to compare the stats of the league leaders at the position, here's your top 12:

A couple things: I didn't include fumbles because ESPN and NFL.com and Pro Football Reference all make tracking fumbles difficult thanks to how they sort it. Other than the exceptions noted most elite qb's only have 1-2 fumbles (not sure how many lost since ESPN doesn't specify except in cases of rushing fumbles). So their TD/TO ratio is mostly based off passing td's/int's, except in cases where rushing is a feature of their style.

For draft position I put a star on Tannehill because he had to escape the Dolphins to revitalize his career and ascend to the next level. Kirk could have a star too as he had to sit for 3 seasons and study/wait before he got PT, then it took half a season of playing terribly and going down 24-3 at the half to the Bucs before he finally said fuck it and decided to play like he had nothing to lose. But for most of these qb's they are still with the team that drafted them and playing well.

Now we scroll down to Alex. I love Alex's redemption story and would be happy rolling with him next year while we find someone to groom, but I also believe planning around a 37 year old qb coming off a gruesome leg injury that is apparently having some sort of issue would be a terrible career move for Ron.



My key takeaways from this: You don't have to draft a qb at the top of the 1st to find a stud. You do need a qb with a minimum of 2/1 TD/TO ratio just to compete. If you draft a guy in the later rounds, the odds are that he's going to need more time to sit and develop are higher. Turning someone else's trash into treasure (R. Tannehill) is not impossible, but it is improbable.

And finally, there are guys that aren't even mentioned here still having above-average seasons, but they aren't making any noise for whatever reason.

Kyler Murray 23/10 td/int (plus 10 rushing td's)
Matt Stafford 22/9
Phillip Rivers 20/9
Drew Brees 18/3 (small sample size obv)
Lamar Jackson 18/7 (plus 6 rushing td's)

I think we might be a bit jaded because last time we traded up for a qb in the draft, it set this franchise back about 4 years. But let's say we finish with a draft pick between 16-32, would you trade 2022's first to move up a few spots to draft a guy you like (assuming he's available on draft day?)

Right now we have a quality defense (could use some help at LB/maybe a corner/safety if they want better play from Everett). Assuming we get another quality target at WR/TE next year we might be looking at a 2-3 year window (while we still have key guys on rookie contracts) where we can try to contend. Do we really want to waste next season letting more young guys develop? No. Alex Smith might expect to roll into the offseason as the starter for next year, but that doesn't mean we should be complacent with who we have on the roster at qb. We gotta start looking for the next guy, if Ron & co. aren't already.