When is Enough ,Enough?

[Buffalo Bob]

Originally Posted by BaltimoreSkins

We trust experts because it is their job not their hobby like a politician. I love how you say the "experts" are "incorrect" about the coronavirus when we are literally learning about this on the fly. Real world scenarios are difficult to model and predict precisely because there are too many variables to control and predict their interactions. This is precisely why we use null hypotheses in order to validate correlations. If you are looking for absolutes in science you are not going to get it (there are even times when carbon has more than four bonds). The only absolutes are natural laws and that is not something that is used lightly.

In terms of weather forecasting a 7 day forecast accurately predicts the weather 80% of the time and a 5 day forecast accurately predicts the weather 90% of the time that is pretty damn good If those were batting averages they aren't even possible.

I will take a wild guess that your definition of accurate is different than most people's. Your average Joe does not consider the weatherman to even be accurate 50% of the time. Since you admit your science is not exact why do most "scientists" constantly belittle people who question them?

I am pretty sure the only 80-90% accurate weatherman works in the lower elevation areas of Southern California where the weather rarely makes any measurable changes from day to day. I know how wildly inaccurate the weatherman is here as I am constantly duped into using weather forecasts to plain my work schedule if I am not that busy. I work in an uninsulated shop and my HVAC system in winter is portable heaters and in summer I just use fans.

Since even in a 1,000 square foot shop heating costs up to $5 an hour if I see warmer days forecast a day or so out if I am not busy I take a day off. Even 5-10 degrees warmer makes a big difference in how many heaters I have to fire up. Cold weather seems to last longer than predicted in winter 90% of the time.