Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice

[NC_Skins]

Originally Posted by biffle

The real world doesn't work that way. Griffin has virtually nothing in common with Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell, whether you're looking at backgrounds, education, skillset, production, character or temperments. Not to mention, Griffin will be stepping into a situation that will likely bear little resemblence to what the other 2 walked into.

So, to suggest the former's chances of success decline by some percentage because of the failures of the latter two is really wrongheaded, at absolute best.

Numbers are what they are. Since 1998 (till 2009), there is a 41% success chance of landing a very good QB in the top 5 of the NFL draft.

Griffin or Luck chances at becoming a successful draft pick are still the same. They still have a 41% chance. It is what it is. I would imagine that there is a high probability that one of the two is going to bust.

[diehardskin2982]

Let me clarify... I was asking to choose between Manning as a free agent with the health questions but only paying cash.

or

RGIII but paying a 1st 2nd a 1st next year and a 3rd plus some other late round picks

Not manning 100% healthy (no matter what that won't happen) or some dream scenario where RGIII falls to us at 6 and we don't lose picks. I want to know who would want the ransom to get the young arm or take a risk on a legend.

[NC_Skins]

Originally Posted by diehardskin2982

Let me clarify... I was asking to choose between Manning as a free agent with the health questions but only paying cash.

or

RGIII but paying a 1st 2nd a 1st next year and a 3rd plus some other late round picks

Not manning 100% healthy (no matter what that won't happen) or some dream scenario where RGIII falls to us at 6 and we don't lose picks. I want to know who would want the ransom to get the young arm or take a risk on a legend.

When you calculate all those other players (that would be used to get RGIII) along with Peyton, it's a no brainer for me. Now if our team were a bit more solid, I would have no issues with giving up the picks if I thought he was that guy.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by diehardskin2982

Let me clarify... I was asking to choose between Manning as a free agent with the health questions but only paying cash.

or

RGIII but paying a 1st 2nd a 1st next year and a 3rd plus some other late round picks

Not manning 100% healthy (no matter what that won't happen) or some dream scenario where RGIII falls to us at 6 and we don't lose picks. I want to know who would want the ransom to get the young arm or take a risk on a legend.

It's a good question, but it's probably early to ask it because the draft is a considerable distance away, and Manning's availability for the Redskins is nothing more than a rumor at this point.

If Manning is released by the Colts on March 7 and signs with the Colts for two years/$25 million (backloaded - $18 mil in year two) the next day, then he was never planning on leaving Indy to begin with. Then we're targeting someone else who (probably) doesn't adequately solve the need to draft a quarterback.

[biffle]

Originally Posted by 30gut

Where did I suggest Griffin chances of success decline?

I also missed the part of my post where I made any comparison of Griffin to Leaf or Jamarcus?

I'll chalk it up to an honest mistake.

Cheers-

If you're using a percentage of what previous QBs did as the chances of a current QB succeeding, then that is exactly what you're doing. The chances of Griffin or anyone else working out don't have anything to do with what players they had nothing in common with did or did not do.

There's a reason some organizations draft better than others. It's because you're not throwing names into a hat and you have an x percent chance that it wil turn out to be a good player.

Leaf and Russell are good examples because they are QBs who were drafted extremely high and didn't work out, therefore-by what ever standard you're using - the 'chance' Griffin works out is supposedly much lower because of them. And those are two players we now know were doomed by horrible attitudes and work ethics, whcih makes them about as similar to Robert Griffin as Danny Devito is.

[GTripp0012]

I would submit that the risky play here isn't RG3, it's Manning. Once you get past the fact that the reported asking price for the no. 2 pick is obscene and fictitious, and that only time elapsing towards the draft plus the ability of the Vikings to join the trade talks is going to make the Rams join reality, the draft becomes a well-established efficient market.

You're not losing value in a trade up for RG3. You're not gaining value in a trade up for RG3 (unless of course you are stealing it from the Rams). You're franchise is worth the same it was before and after an RG3 trade, if it's a fair deal. So trading up for Griffin isn't more or less optimal than staying put and keeping the picks.

Manning though, is inherently a gamble. There's a cap cost, a financial burden, and an opportunity cost to signing Peyton Manning on your team. The only way you can win that gamble and avoid 2012 as a lost year is to have Peyton healthy for a majority of the season, and playing at a high level. Otherwise, signing Manning burns you in the end.

Still, if you can get him, and you have the testicular fortitude to bet your job on it, Mike Shanahan has to get Manning, right? I mean, how could he pass up that chance to win big, even with his job on the line if it doesn't work? If Manning is willing to come here, that's a once a decade acquisition staring you in the face.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by NC_Skins

Numbers are what they are. Since 1998 (till 2009), there is a 41% success chance of landing a very good QB in the top 5 of the NFL draft.

Griffin or Luck chances at becoming a successful draft pick are still the same. They still have a 41% chance. It is what it is. I would imagine that there is a high probability that one of the two is going to bust.

Missing on Griffin isn't any different than missing on Reilly Reiff, et al. Your chance of salvaging your 2012 draft in the face of an misevaluation at the top of the first round is much greater if you don't make the trade, but it's kind of silly IMO to think of the draft as a proposition where you try to do the least harm.

You get to draft the most valuable assets in the NFL and sign them for 20%-30% of their market value. With that advantage, I wouldn't think of the trade up possibility for Griffin as a huge risk. Think of it as cost-benefit instead. You're not really risking anything of note.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by biffle

If you're using a percentage of what previous QBs did as the chances of a current QB succeeding, then that is exactly what you're doing. The chances of Griffin or anyone else working out don't have anything to do with what players they had nothing in common with did or did not do.

biffle, the percentage is the percentage.
You don't get to pick and choose (cherry pick).

Originally Posted by biffle

Leaf and Russell are good examples because they are QBs who were drafted extremely high and didn't work out, therefore-by what ever standard you're using - the 'chance' Griffin works out is supposedly much lower because of them. And those are two players we now know were doomed by horrible attitudes and work ethics, whcih makes them about as similar to Robert Griffin as Danny Devito is.

Dude, c'mon.
You're inventing a point and making a comparison of your own choosing, then arguing against it.

And I'll repeat it here in case you forgot:

Notice again that my quote doesn't contain the comparisons you claim then argue against.

[The Goat]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

To me it's a no brainer. You take Peyton Manning and anyone who says otherwise is an idiot.

You get one of the very best quarterbacks in NFL history. You don't have to give up anything but money, so you still get to make all your picks and continue building the team through the draft in a sane fashion. And signing Manning buys you three years to find the QB of the long term future.

With Griffin, yes you get a very talented player who can make plays on the ground and in the air. But you sacrifice a ton of (high) picks to do so. This team still needs talent, we're not one player away, even if that single player is a potential franchise QB.

And in the end, Griffin is an unknown commodity. Sure he seems like he'll translate to the NFL, but so did Akili Smith and Jamarcus Russell and Tim Couch and Cade McNown and Ryan Leaf and on and on and on. To me, Manning's recovery is less of a question mark than whether Griffin will pan out. The stats don't lie, half of the QBs drafted in Round 1 become flops. So don't be so quick to dismiss that possibility with Griffin, I guarantee you the Bengals thought they had a good thing with Akili Smith, as did the Raiders with Russell.

If you want a precedent for this, look at Montana in Kansas City, they went to an AFC title game. Sometimes football is not that complicated. If the best player in NFL history (in my humble opinion) becomes available, you get him.

And think of it this way: if we miss on Griffin we're set back SIGNIFICANTLY in our efforts to return the team to the playoffs. If we miss on Manning and his neck doesn't pan out, at least we still will have filled our squad out with high picks. In the end, the downside with Manning is much less.

This.

Griffin is a (totally) unproven prospect. Hell, just a few months ago he was purportedly unsure whether he wanted to play in the NFL this year or go to law school...really?!

C'mon folks. You want your QB to eat, sleep and breath pro football. That's Peyton Manning. The only way he'll sign anywhere is if he believes in his own health/ability to lead his new team to a championship. If he's willing to play in Washington you sign him immediately and do everything you can to surround him with talent.

[biffle]

Originally Posted by 30gut

biffle, the percentage is the percentage.
You don't get to pick and choose (cherry pick).

Dude, c'mon.
You're inventing a point and making a comparison of your own choosing, then arguing against it.

And I'll repeat it here in case you forgot:
Notice again that my quote doesn't contain the comparisons you claim then argue against.

Statistics will only do you any good if you know how to use them.

Making decisions on what players to acquire based on 'odds' that are calculated by comparing them to completely dissimilar players is a textbook way to misuse them.

People who do things like that are the same people who come back years later and swear that stats are worthless and they can't believe anyone would be dumb enough to listen to them.

[diehardskin2982]

Right now I am leaning towards Manning because even if he is a lesser athelete than he was in the past he still has the smarts and knows how to play the NFL game. I think he will be able to compensate for his arm strength like Chad Pennington did as a QB. We can use our picks to build the team and draft a quality QB with 2013's number 1.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by biffle

Making decisions on what players to acquire based on 'odds' that are calculated by comparing them to completely dissimilar players is a textbook way to misuse them.

You know what would be great? If you could actually post/quote where I've compared Griffin to players that are dissimilar to him?
But, I'm sure you won't because I didn't make that comparison you did.

It would be nice to actually discuss the entire content of my post rather than your repeated false claims, especially since you completely gloss over the fact that I actually like Griffin as prospect.

Originally Posted by 30gut

I love Robert Griffin as a prospect.

The question for me is simple:
Do you think Peyton Manning will be back to 100% (or close) by training camp/Sept?

If yes then I don't see why/how anyone would be against singing PM.
You can always draft the next great QB prospect in a later draft, there will be other great QB prospects there always are.

[biffle]

Originally Posted by 30gut

You know what would be great? If you could actually post/quote where I've compared Griffin to players that are dissimilar to him?
But, I'm sure you won't because I didn't make that comparison you did.

It would be nice to actually discuss the entire content of my post rather than your repeated false claims, especially since you completely gloss over the fact that I actually like Griffin as prospect.

When you use the percentage of first round QBs who have worked out, you are using all of them, including Russell and Leaf, whom I used as examples of prospects who drag down that percentage.

Is that really so far beyond your ability to comprehend?

[biffle]

Originally Posted by 30gut

You know what would be great? If you could actually post/quote where I've compared Griffin to players that are dissimilar to him?
But, I'm sure you won't because I didn't make that comparison you did.

It would be nice to actually discuss the entire content of my post rather than your repeated false claims, especially since you completely gloss over the fact that I actually like Griffin as prospect.

When you use the percentage of first round QBs who have worked out, you are using all of them, including Russell and Leaf, whom I used as examples of prospects who drag down that percentage.

Is that really so far beyond your ability to comprehend?

[CultBrennan59]

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