Quote:
Originally Posted by SmootSmack
Did you use these same variables for your projections on Rattay, Quinn, and Gradkowski
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No. Quinn's college statistics are one of the 45 reference points I'm using to make the regression however. Gradkowski stats aren't, currently, but I could add him fairly easily.
I don't think I've ever looked up Rattay's college stats, but thought that his NFL performance warranted a longer NFL shelf life.
My pre-2007 Quinn projection was based on the old football outsiders formula that used only completion percentage and college starts, plus a great deal of game tape reference. It's the growing inaccuracy of the old system that is driving me to design a better one.
As you would expect, most of this work is preliminary, and unrefined. I felt comfortable posting the comparables though, under the admission that I expect the accuracy to improve as we get closer to draft day (when projected draft position can be used as more than a binary "first-round, not-first-round")