NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

I ran a regression on the college statistics of players who figure to be considered in the first two or three rounds of the NFL Draft at the quarterback position. Factors I looked at included: career completion percentage, college victories, college starts, career value progression (i.e. did he improve in every year, or was he best as a sophomore), expected draft position (as not to have Pike and Bradford on the exact same scale), and career passing attempts.

The order of the comparables are somewhat arbitrary. I ran a bunch of two variable regressions, and then had to eyeball the closest to the line on two or three different graphs. Anyway, this is what I found in the purely statistical sense, so keep in mind that if Jimmy Clausen doesn't remind you of Byron Leftwich, it's not because I think they look exactly the same out there. Just that there are similarities in the draft profiles.

[U][B]Jimmy Clausen
[/B][/U]1. Matt Leinart
2. Jason Campbell
3. Byron Leftwich
4. Drew Brees
5. Aaron Rodgers
6. Matt Stafford
7. Ben Roethlisberger

[U][B]Sam Bradford
[/B][/U]1. Ben Roethlisberger
2. Matt Leinart
3. Rex Grossman
4. Brian Brohm
5. Jason Campbell
6. Matt Ryan
7. Aaron Rodgers

[I]*--Interestingly, Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen are more similar to each other than they are to any of the comparables I listed for either, with the exception of Leinart for Clausen.[/I]

[U][B]Jake Locker
[/B][/U]1. Marques Tuiasosopo
2. Joey Harrington
3. Quincy Carter
4. Rex Grossman
5. Mark Sanchez
6. JaMarcus Russell
7. Drew Henson

[U][B]Tony Pike
[/B][/U]1. Charlie Batch
2. Joe Flacco
3. Drew Brees
4. Kellen Clemens
5. Matt Ryan
6. Mark Sanchez
7. Tom Brady

[U][B]Tim Tebow[/B][/U]
(he's kind of fascinating...a lot of these QBs have something in common that Tebow does not)
1. Daunte Culpepper
2. Pat White
3. Alex Smith
4. Troy Smith
5. Tim Couch
6. Kevin Kolb
7. David Carr

[B][U]Colt McCoy
[/U][/B]1. Chad Pennington
2. Philip Rivers
3. Drew Brees
4. Tim Couch
5. Brian Brohm
6. Vince Young
7. Chad Henne

[U][B]Dan LeFevour
[/B][/U]1. Jay Cutler
2. Brady Quinn
3. Donovan McNabb
4. Chad Pennington
5. Philip Rivers
6. Kevin Kolb
7. John Beck

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

if I picked based on that assessment, I'd go with Colt McCoy

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

[quote=diehardskin2982;636659]if I picked based on that assessment, I'd go with Colt McCoy[/quote]As would I. McCoy has legitimate questions about his arm strength, but so did Pennington (and I didn't put Matt Schaub in the system, but he had the same arm issues), and he (they) turned out alright.

If he's there in the second, he's a major steal.

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

not sold on mccoy becoming a good pro. clausen is the guy id want hands down if we had to go qb

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

The other interesting thing is that you can see system players in the comparables: Alex Smith's numbers look a lot like Tebow's numbers, and Vince Young had a season (2005) just like Colt McCoy's 2009. IMO, it's good that this system reflects the similarities in the numbers between guys who played in the same system.

It also suggests that Jimmy Clausen and Brady Quinn are very, very different players. I still think Quinn is bound to be the better pro, if he ever can get free of Cleveland, but Clausen comes with a degree of accuracy that Quinn didn't have. I just don't think Clausen will ever have the patience to be a Manning/Brady/Rivers/Pennington type, who will take what the defense gives him, but that Brees comparable is the best case scenario.

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

Dan LeFevour is most appealing to these eyes.

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

[quote=Angry;636673]Dan LeFevour is most appealing to these eyes.[/quote]I should point out that with the LeFevour input, I used his completion percentage in the 12 games he started in his career against BCS conference opponents: 57.4%, as opposed to his career percentage of 66.7% in the MAC. Crediting him for the full array of experience, he's right up there with that group of solid first rounders who rarely get intercepted, but have minor accuracy issues.

Lower down his list are the guys who posted ridiculous numbers against inferior competition.

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

Based on that assessment, i'd stick with Campbell and, if necessary, draft a QB in 2011.

I'd much rather have Suh than take a chance on any of those guys. I'm just not that impressed.

On a side-note, i was surprised Tebow was not compared to Vince Young. It seems that most OC's would try to use them similarly in the NFL.

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

Sorted by College Victories:

1. McCoy 45
2. Tebow 34
3. LeFevour 33
4. Bradford 24
5. Clausen 16
6. Pike 16
7. Locker 7

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

[quote=BigHairedAristocrat;636678]Based on that assessment, i'd stick with Campbell and, if necessary, draft a QB in 2011.

I'd much rather have Suh than take a chance on any of those guys. I'm just not that impressed.

On a side-note, i was surprised Tebow was not compared to Vince Young. It seems that most OC's would try to use them similarly in the NFL.[/quote]That's another similarity for Tebow, actually. The biggest difference was that Young was more efficient on a play-by-play basis in college than Tebow was, but Tebow's accuracy numbers were more steady. I could have easily used Young instead of Carr as the seventh comparable, and actually, probably should have.

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

[quote=GTripp0012;636681]Sorted by College Victories:

1. McCoy 45
2. Tebow 34
3. LeFevour 33
4. Bradford 24
5. Clausen 16
6. Pike 16
7. Locker 7[/quote]

not really a follower of college, so GTripp could you put games played next to that, or the winning percentage?

Thanks

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

[quote=CRedskinsRule;636685]not really a follower of college, so GTripp could you put games played next to that, or the winning percentage?

Thanks[quote=GTripp0012;636681]Sorted by College Victories:

1. McCoy 45/53
2. Tebow 34/41
3. LeFevour 33/53
4. Bradford 24/31
5. Clausen 16/34
6. Pike 16/20
7. Locker 7/28[/quote]
[/quote]^^^College Victories/College Starts

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

Thx, I figured Locker had a low number of starts that's really why I asked. That is an awful winning percentage though.

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

I'm a bigger fan of McCoy. Ulitmately though I think the quality of a QB is so tied into the system and players around him it doesn't much matter. Outside of Manning/Brady/Brees it's hard to see any QB currently in the league going to a bad offense and performing well. I still think with a rebuilt line JC can win us 10-12 games a year from and offensive stand point. But here are probably a dozen other QBs who could also.

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

[quote=CRedskinsRule;636693]Thx, I figured Locker had a low number of starts that's really why I asked. That is an awful winning percentage though.[/quote]Yeah. What shocks me with Locker is that with all of the hub-bub about Tebow being asked to play a new position, it's kind of crazy that Locker is behind mentioned as a first rounder. If they both came out this year, there's less than a 1% chance that Locker would make a better professional quarterback than Tebow. But he's definately athletic enough to play safety, or tight end, or fullback at the next level, in fact, he actually played some safety at Washington while also playing at quarterback.

I can't imagine that quarterback would be his best position at the next level, but he might as well go back for another year if he's going to try it. Personally, I don't think Sarkisian is going to let him walk after a 5-7 junior season, he will convince him to stay.

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

i've been saying it all year, and i'll say it again, i want pike, he has the size, the arm, the accuracy, and vision, and i think we could pick him up late second round which would allow us to go o line first round

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

Add in Zac Robinson and Jevan Snead...and John Skelton :)

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

^and by saying that i want to point out i want jc back next year i don't want a rookie qb next year behind a rebuilding line and new system

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

[quote=SmootSmack;636699]Add in Zac Robinson and Jevan Snead...and John Skelton :)[/quote]I can do Robinson and Snead. If I put Skelton/Randolph in this system without translating their numbers for competition, it would just spit out ridiculously great comparables for two guys who might end up being 4th or 5th round picks. Sure, they might be the next Peyton Manning/Philip Rivers/Ben Roethlisberger, but then, I really hope they don't slip to the 4th round and never get a chance.

[U][B]Zac Robinson
[/B][/U]1. Kellen Clemens
2. Matt Ryan
3. Josh Freeman
4. Byron Leftwich
5. Drew Stanton
6. John Beck
7. John David Booty

[U][B]Jevan Snead
[/B][/U]1. J.P. Losman
2. Joey Harrington
3. Quincy Carter
4. Jim Druckenmiller
5. Marques Tuiasosopo
6. Kyle Boller
7. Kyle Orton

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

Don't worry about Randolph. He's Chase Daniel 2010-meaning he won't be drafted (I don't think)

So are you going to share how you got to these results?

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

[quote=SmootSmack;636729]Don't worry about Randolph. He's Chase Daniel 2010-meaning he won't be drafted (I don't think)

So are you going to share how you got to these results?[/quote]The actual formula outputs, not yet at least. I am serious when I say I did not use any variables that were not accounted for in the original post. I used one regression for completion percentage vs. college starts, another for completion percentage vs. college wins, and a third for performance in QBs best year vs. performance in the worst year, expressed as a ratio (the value metric was completion percentage times the percentage of career attempts thrown in that year...McCoy for example scored 12.92, 16.47, 19.79, and 21.15 in his four years...appreciating value).

The next step is to try to develop a way to deviate the comparables from the lines of best fit. Like I said, the comparables listed here was just me eyeballing the outputs, no math involved. That makes it more arbitrary than I would like, but again, it's December, and accuracy in the general sense is a good start in my book.

I'll probably have to steal a similarity scores formula from somewhere, and that will alter the results just a bit.

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

Did you use these same variables for your projections on Rattay, Quinn, and Gradkowski

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

[quote=SmootSmack;636755]Did you use these same variables for your projections on Rattay, Quinn, and Gradkowski[/quote]No. Quinn's college statistics are one of the 45 reference points I'm using to make the regression however. Gradkowski stats aren't, currently, but I could add him fairly easily.

I don't think I've ever looked up Rattay's college stats, but thought that his NFL performance warranted a longer NFL shelf life.

My pre-2007 Quinn projection was based on the old football outsiders formula that used only completion percentage and college starts, plus a great deal of game tape reference. It's the growing inaccuracy of the old system that is driving me to design a better one.

As you would expect, most of this work is preliminary, and unrefined. I felt comfortable posting the comparables though, under the admission that I expect the accuracy to improve as we get closer to draft day (when projected draft position can be used as more than a binary "first-round, not-first-round")

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

[quote=GTripp0012;636743]The actual formula outputs, not yet at least. I am serious when I say I did not use any variables that were not accounted for in the original post. I used one regression for completion percentage vs. college starts, another for completion percentage vs. college wins, and a third for performance in QBs best year vs. performance in the worst year, expressed as a ratio (the value metric was completion percentage times the percentage of career attempts thrown in that year...McCoy for example scored 12.92, 16.47, 19.79, and 21.15 in his four years...appreciating value).

The next step is to try to develop a way to deviate the comparables from the lines of best fit. Like I said, the comparables listed here was just me eyeballing the outputs, no math involved. [B] That makes it more arbitrary than I would like[/B], but again, it's December, and accuracy in the general sense is a good start in my book.

I'll probably have to steal a similarity scores formula from somewhere, and that will alter the results just a bit.[/quote]
Did anyone else flashback to Star Trek IV when Spock had to guess at the variables to time warp back to the future earth?

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

I'm not really sold on any of these QB's. I just don't see a can't miss guy in this year's draft class. Some of them have nice stats but that really doesn't mean anything when it comes to the pro game. The only guy that really looks the part is Clausen.

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

[quote=mlmdub130;636698]i've been saying it all year, and i'll say it again, i want pike, he has the size, the arm, the accuracy, and vision, and i think we could pick him up late second round which would allow us to go o line first round[/quote]

Pike has come on this year but isn't this only good year? Plus he's too frail.

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

[quote=skinsfan69;636771]Pike has come on this year but isn't this only good year? Plus he's too frail.[/quote]

he had a good year last year, and he is frail thats why we need to draft oline and keep jc rebuild the line and have pike start in two years

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

[quote=skinsfan69;636767]I'm not really sold on any of these QB's. I just don't see a can't miss guy in this year's draft class. Some of them have nice stats but that really doesn't mean anything when it comes to the pro game. The only guy that really looks the part is Clausen.[/quote]

or John Skelton...just saying.

Seriously though, a lot will depend of course on who our next coach is (or if it's even Zorn)

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

Doesn't matter, we're not picking a qb period

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

[quote=rbanerjee23;636779]Doesn't matter, we're not picking a qb period[/quote]

you seriously think we won't draft a qb? and seriously don't think there is a chance it will happen in the first round? you have got to be joking right

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

[quote=mlmdub130;636781]you seriously think we won't draft a qb? and seriously don't think there is a chance it will happen in the first round? you have got to be joking right[/quote]

uh...yeah seriously, what do you think is the bigger problem, the line that just had its 10th starter of the year and the 5th guy playing right guard or the qb who has played behind the piece of s*** line and put up decent numbers all year?

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

I don't think a QB in the 1st is any sort of lock at this point. We'll have a better idea as soon as some other issues are sorted out after the season, mainly, who is going to be calling the personnel shots and who the HC is going to be.

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

That was a very interesting exercise.

If your list of pro QB's who are most comparable to Jake Locker wouldn't be enough to scare a GM away from drafting him, I don't know what would be.

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

[quote=SmootSmack;636776]or John Skelton...just saying.

Seriously though, a lot will depend of course on who our next coach is (or if it's even Zorn)[/quote]

Can you tell us more about why you are so high on Skelton?

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

[quote=rbanerjee23;636786]uh...yeah seriously, what do you think is the bigger problem, the line that just had its 10th starter of the year and the 5th guy playing right guard or the qb who has played behind the piece of s*** line and put up decent numbers all year?[/quote]

you said we wouldn't draft a qb period, i'm saying we will, i would hope it's not in the first round but it is very possible. we need to go line possibly trade down, but i doubt that will happen. but if you don't think we will draft at qb at all then i am saying you are wrong

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

Have comparables been created for College O-Linemen? We need new blood on the OL far more than a QB.

One thing I learned in college, is the creator of the comparables can skew the results any which way they want. I'm just saying............

:)

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

[quote=backrow;636835]Have comparables been created for College O-Linemen? We need new blood on the OL far more than a QB.

One thing I learned in college, is the creator of the comparables can skew the results any which way they want. I'm just saying............

:)[/quote]I don't think I could do a statistical system on left tackles. We'd be better off comparing them to celebrities based on their looks and then picking our favorites.

But seriously, no Vinny jokes ;)

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

[quote=Lotus;636833]Can you tell us more about why you are so high on Skelton?[/quote]

Ask WaldSkins, he saw him play live. Seen some (very little because there isn't much) footage of him. Heard scouts rave about him. Totally raw. Honestly think he could get drafted higher than he probably should based on his potential. Gets compared to Flacco because he's a tall, small-school QB. I see a little bit of Warren Moon in him.

Realistically, I think he's a strong back-up but maybe not franchise starter material. I probably wouldn't take a look at him before the 4th. If we're drafting a QB in the first round I'd look at Clausen or Bradford. 2nd-3rd I'd go with Robinson or Snead. Gun to my head I'd probably prefer Robinson or Snead over any other QB in the draft based on the assumption that means we can go OL first round, RB 4th round and then take our QB in either round 2 or 3 (understanding that we'd need to trade for a 3rd).

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

[quote=SmootSmack;636847]Ask WaldSkins, he saw him play live. Seen some (very little because there isn't much) footage of him. Heard scouts rave about him. Totally raw. Honestly think he could get drafted higher than he probably should based on his potential. Gets compared to Flacco because he's a tall, small-school QB. I see a little bit of Warren Moon in him.

Realistically, I think he's a strong back-up but maybe not franchise starter material. I probably wouldn't take a look at him before the 4th. If we're drafting a QB in the first round I'd look at Clausen or Bradford. 2nd-3rd I'd go with Robinson or Snead. Gun to my head I'd probably prefer Robinson or Snead over any other QB in the draft based on the assumption that means we can go OL first round, RB 4th round and then take our QB in either round 2 or 3 (understanding that we'd need to trade for a 3rd).[/quote]

There are worse things for a qb than having a bit of Moon...

I like your "gun-to-head" draft plan.

Re: NFL Comparables for 2010 Draft Prospects at Quarterback
 

[quote=SmootSmack;636776]or John Skelton...just saying.

Seriously though, a lot will depend of course on who our next coach is (or if it's even Zorn)[/quote]

Has anyone actaully seen Skelton play?? I mean if anyone is watching Fordum play then more power to them. lol. But I'm cool with drafting a guy like this as long as it's in the mid to later rounds.