P. Diddy Says Redskins Make the Playoffs

SmootSmack · 09-09-2005, 01:39 AM

Actually, it's not P. Diddy but rather some formula called P. Diff compiled by the Wall Street Journal. Below is the article (I pasted it here for those that don't have a WSJ subscription):

The Divine Dozen
September 9, 2005; Page W8

The concept is simple. An NFL team's won-lost record is related to how many points it scores and allows. But each season, a few teams experience a disconnect between the victory and points ratios that can result from a few lucky or unlucky bounces of the pigskin.

That disconnect is a reason why a team can be seen as a surprise -- or a disappointment -- in any given year. And often the next year, that team's points tally and number of wins fall back into balance, and expectations are once again satisfied.

To quantify this, we'll use P-wins, or Pythagorean wins, a concept first applied to baseball by Bill James. Doing the math requires a trip back to high-school algebra: Take the square of the number of points a team scores, then divide it by that same number added to the square of the number of points they allow. Multiply that number by the number of games the team plays, and you get P-Wins. Subtract actual wins from P-Wins, and you get P-Diff. And if that's not complicated enough, to compensate for the higher scoring in a typical NFL game, Daryl Morey, formerly of sports analysis firm Stats Inc. suggests raising them to an exponent of 2.37.

A negative P-Diff means you're playing over your head. A positive P-Diff would mean your team is better than its win-loss record would indicate. For example, the 2003 Carolina Panthers went 11-5 despite outscoring their opponents by only 21 points, for a -2.36 P-Diff. Last year, they went 7-9, despite an almost identical +16 points gap, for a +1.44 P-Diff.

Here, with P-Diff in mind, are our playoff picks for each conference (in alphabetical order).

AFC:

Buffalo Bills: The 2004 Pittsburgh Steelers outscored their opponents by 121 points and went 15-1. The Bills had a scoring advantage of 111 points, but at 9-7, missed the playoffs. Their +1.98 P-Diff suggests that they could give the New England Patriots a run for their money in the AFC East.

Cincinnati Bengals: Last year's 2004 Bengals (+.05 P-Diff) had the same 8-8 record as the '03 squad, but went from scoring 38 points less than their competition to scoring two points more. Expect a wild card or better.

Indianapolis Colts: Since the arrival of Tony Dungy, architect of the fearsome Tampa Bay defense, the Colts (-.49 P-Diff) have allowed more points each year, though the offense makes up for it. This could be the year that the Colts defense steps up, and Indy takes a great leap forward.

Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs weren't as good as their 13-3 record in '03 -- or as bad as their 7-9 record last year, when they outscored their opponents by 48. Their +1.99 P-Diff shows that a little luck could nab them the AFC West title.

New England Patriots: Their -1.62 P-Diff seems ominous -- but it's almost a game better than their 2003 P-Diff (-2.62). Still, losing defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel and offensive coordinator Charlie Weis could turn their quest for another AFC East title into a dogfight.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Their -3.52 P-Diff suggests they'll have their work cut out for them holding off the Bengals and Ravens (.57 P-Diff).

NFC:

Arizona Cardinals: Last year was only coach Dennis Green's second losing season, but the Cards (+.82 P-Diff) improved. In 2003, they were outscored by 227 points. In 2004, it was just 38. The difference: better defense. An uptick in quality from their Kurt Warner-led offense, and they're in the playoffs.

Carolina Panthers: The Panthers stumbled early last season, but won six of their last eight, posting a 1.44 P-Diff. Look for a 10-win season, as the Falcons (an NFC-worst -2.92 P-Diff) fall back to earth.

Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings (+.24 P-Diff) are the Colts Lite: Great offense, little defense. P-wins suggests that they'll close the gap on the Green Bay Packers (-.97 P Diff).

Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles are fighting both their -1.51 P-Diff and history: Four of the last five Super Bowl runners up had a losing record the following year.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Bucs' 2.91 P-Diff suggests they'll slug it out with the Panthers for the division, earning at least a Wild Card.

Washington Redskins: True or False: The Redskins (1.06 P-Diff) allowed fewer defensive yards than the Patriots. If you said true, you know why Joe Gibbs's team is far better than their 6-10 record indicated.

RedskinRat · 09-09-2005, 02:03 AM

All the best information comes from the WSJ.

Thanks for the article.

MTK · 09-09-2005, 09:25 AM

Guys, it's just Diddy now, he dropped the P.

He did it for us, the fans!

kingerock · 09-10-2005, 11:29 AM

I think i saw this last season and it's supposedly one of the more accurate predictors out there...

hmmm...

GoSkins! · 09-10-2005, 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingerock

I think i saw this last season and it's supposedly one of the more accurate predictors out there...

You mean it's more accurate than Dr. Z???:frusty:

kingerock · 09-10-2005, 11:51 AM

lol, my son at 3 was more accurate in the bathroom that Dr. Z

skinsguy · 09-10-2005, 02:27 PM

I certainly hope we don't need complicated math to get into the playoffs...just win at least 10 or more games.....certainly that's the gameplan I'm going for!

NM Redskin · 09-10-2005, 03:52 PM

Awww man I was SO ready to start talkin crap about P Diddy.

09-09-2005, 01:39 AM	#1
SmootSmack Uncle Phil Join Date: Feb 2004 Posts: 45,256	P. Diddy Says Redskins Make the Playoffs Actually, it's not P. Diddy but rather some formula called P. Diff compiled by the Wall Street Journal. Below is the article (I pasted it here for those that don't have a WSJ subscription): The Divine Dozen September 9, 2005; Page W8 The concept is simple. An NFL team's won-lost record is related to how many points it scores and allows. But each season, a few teams experience a disconnect between the victory and points ratios that can result from a few lucky or unlucky bounces of the pigskin. That disconnect is a reason why a team can be seen as a surprise -- or a disappointment -- in any given year. And often the next year, that team's points tally and number of wins fall back into balance, and expectations are once again satisfied. To quantify this, we'll use P-wins, or Pythagorean wins, a concept first applied to baseball by Bill James. Doing the math requires a trip back to high-school algebra: Take the square of the number of points a team scores, then divide it by that same number added to the square of the number of points they allow. Multiply that number by the number of games the team plays, and you get P-Wins. Subtract actual wins from P-Wins, and you get P-Diff. And if that's not complicated enough, to compensate for the higher scoring in a typical NFL game, Daryl Morey, formerly of sports analysis firm Stats Inc. suggests raising them to an exponent of 2.37. A negative P-Diff means you're playing over your head. A positive P-Diff would mean your team is better than its win-loss record would indicate. For example, the 2003 Carolina Panthers went 11-5 despite outscoring their opponents by only 21 points, for a -2.36 P-Diff. Last year, they went 7-9, despite an almost identical +16 points gap, for a +1.44 P-Diff. Here, with P-Diff in mind, are our playoff picks for each conference (in alphabetical order). AFC: Buffalo Bills: The 2004 Pittsburgh Steelers outscored their opponents by 121 points and went 15-1. The Bills had a scoring advantage of 111 points, but at 9-7, missed the playoffs. Their +1.98 P-Diff suggests that they could give the New England Patriots a run for their money in the AFC East. Cincinnati Bengals: Last year's 2004 Bengals (+.05 P-Diff) had the same 8-8 record as the '03 squad, but went from scoring 38 points less than their competition to scoring two points more. Expect a wild card or better. Indianapolis Colts: Since the arrival of Tony Dungy, architect of the fearsome Tampa Bay defense, the Colts (-.49 P-Diff) have allowed more points each year, though the offense makes up for it. This could be the year that the Colts defense steps up, and Indy takes a great leap forward. Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs weren't as good as their 13-3 record in '03 -- or as bad as their 7-9 record last year, when they outscored their opponents by 48. Their +1.99 P-Diff shows that a little luck could nab them the AFC West title. New England Patriots: Their -1.62 P-Diff seems ominous -- but it's almost a game better than their 2003 P-Diff (-2.62). Still, losing defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel and offensive coordinator Charlie Weis could turn their quest for another AFC East title into a dogfight. Pittsburgh Steelers: Their -3.52 P-Diff suggests they'll have their work cut out for them holding off the Bengals and Ravens (.57 P-Diff). NFC: Arizona Cardinals: Last year was only coach Dennis Green's second losing season, but the Cards (+.82 P-Diff) improved. In 2003, they were outscored by 227 points. In 2004, it was just 38. The difference: better defense. An uptick in quality from their Kurt Warner-led offense, and they're in the playoffs. Carolina Panthers: The Panthers stumbled early last season, but won six of their last eight, posting a 1.44 P-Diff. Look for a 10-win season, as the Falcons (an NFC-worst -2.92 P-Diff) fall back to earth. Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings (+.24 P-Diff) are the Colts Lite: Great offense, little defense. P-wins suggests that they'll close the gap on the Green Bay Packers (-.97 P Diff). Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles are fighting both their -1.51 P-Diff and history: Four of the last five Super Bowl runners up had a losing record the following year. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Bucs' 2.91 P-Diff suggests they'll slug it out with the Panthers for the division, earning at least a Wild Card. Washington Redskins: True or False: The Redskins (1.06 P-Diff) allowed fewer defensive yards than the Patriots. If you said true, you know why Joe Gibbs's team is far better than their 6-10 record indicated. __________________ You're So Vain...You Probably Think This Sig Is About You

09-09-2005, 02:03 AM	#2
RedskinRat Franchise Player Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: I'm in LA, trick! Posts: 8,700	Re: P. Diddy Says Redskins Make the Playoffs All the best information comes from the WSJ. Thanks for the article.

09-09-2005, 09:25 AM	#3
MTK \m/ Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: NY Age: 52 Posts: 99,511	Re: P. Diddy Says Redskins Make the Playoffs Guys, it's just Diddy now, he dropped the P. He did it for us, the fans!

09-10-2005, 11:29 AM	#4
kingerock Special Teams Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Killeen, TX Age: 48 Posts: 360	Re: P. Diddy Says Redskins Make the Playoffs I think i saw this last season and it's supposedly one of the more accurate predictors out there... hmmm... __________________ Redskins fan lost in Texas for 20 years. Need a ride to D.C.

09-10-2005, 11:51 AM	#6
kingerock Special Teams Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Killeen, TX Age: 48 Posts: 360	Re: P. Diddy Says Redskins Make the Playoffs lol, my son at 3 was more accurate in the bathroom that Dr. Z __________________ Redskins fan lost in Texas for 20 years. Need a ride to D.C.

09-10-2005, 02:27 PM	#7
skinsguy Pro Bowl Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Greensboro, North Carolina Posts: 6,766	Re: P. Diddy Says Redskins Make the Playoffs I certainly hope we don't need complicated math to get into the playoffs...just win at least 10 or more games.....certainly that's the gameplan I'm going for! __________________ "Fire Up That Diesel!"

09-10-2005, 03:52 PM	#8
NM Redskin The Starter Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: New Mexico Posts: 1,014	Re: P. Diddy Says Redskins Make the Playoffs Awww man I was SO ready to start talkin crap about P Diddy.

P. Diddy Says Redskins Make the Playoffs

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