Cap Implications of Josh Norman

[Schneed10]

Whenever a huge deal is signed like this the fan base is right to be concerned about the impact on the salary cap and our ability to retain our own players. But there's almost no information out there, so all you get is consternation and fear. I'm in corporate finance and understand how the salary cap works, so I can help. Here in this thread I'm going to put a series of posts addressing this:

A) How much cap room do we have in 2017 as things stand today, including an estimate for Norman

B) Which players are included on that roster, where are the holes

C) Estimate how much it will cost to resign our own

D) Estimate the cap room after resigning our own

I'll continue adding posts here. Stay tuned.

2017 Cap Space

2016 NFL Salary Cap: $155.3M
Projected 5% Increase (conservative): $7.8M
2017 Projected NFL Salary Cap: $163.1M

2017 Redskins Cap Total: $107.0M
Assumed 2017 Cap Hit, Josh Norman: $13M
2017 Redskins Cap Total with Norman: $120M

Projected 2017 Cap Space: $43.1M

[Schneed10]

Who is on the 2017 roster, and where are the holes?

Offensive Line:

LT Trent Williams
LG Shawn Lauvao
C Kory Lichtensteiger
RG Brandon Scherff
RT Morgan Moses

T Depth Takoby Cofield
G/C Depth Spencer Long, Arie Kouandjio, Austin Reiter

Players up for Free Agency: Ty Nsekhe

We're pretty good here. We'll see what we do in the 2016 draft at center. I like Nsekhe as depth, he shouldn't be expensive to resign.

[Schneed10]

Who is on the 2017 roster, and where are the holes?

Quarterback:

QB 1
QB 2 Colt McCoy
QB 3

Players up for Free Agency: Kirk Cousins

Duh. Let's assume Cousins is deemed worth of a long term deal, next season signing a deal worth $22M per season over five years, just for the purposes of estimating a cap impact. Projected 2017 cap hit: $15.0M.

QB 3 will probably get addressed in the 2016 draft.

[Schneed10]

Who is on the 2017 roster, and where are the holes?

Running Backs:

RB 1 Matt Jones
RB 2
RB 3
RB 4

Players up for Free Agency: Chris Thompson

Position of significant need, this season and big time next year. Hard to project cap impact, but look for McLoughan to draft RBs this year and next. Also keep an eye on Pierre Thomas.

[Schneed10]

Who is on the 2017 roster, and where are the holes?

Wide Receivers:

WR 1
WR 2
WR 3 Jamison Crowder
WR 4 Ryan Grant
WR 5
WR 6

Players up for Free Agency: Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson, Rashad Ross

Note: Andre Roberts is actually currently under contract for 2017, but I'm going to just assume he is cut.

This is obviously a spot where big decisions need to be made. Ross will be exclusive rights, so the cost to resign him would be very low. What the Skins decide to do here at WR depends largely on what they do in the 2016 draft. For these purposes let's assume they resign both Jackson and Garcon.

Cutting Andre Roberts clears: $4.0M
Signing Jackson and Garcon (estimated): ($15.0M)
Net Cap Hit: ($11.0M)

[Schneed10]

Who is on the 2017 roster, and where are the holes?

Tight Ends:

TE 1
TE 2 Niles Paul
TE 3
TE 4

Players up for Free Agency: Jordan Reed, Vernon Davis, Logan Paulsen

Reed is a must keep. I'm actually going to assume he gets our franchise tag in 2017, since I think it's likely McCloughan will have consternation about giving a huge deal to a player with big injury history. But he's a stud and they won't want to lose him. I think that negotiation follows the Cousins pattern, prove it one more time.

Vernon Davis and Paulsen, I don't know, what would you do? Again depends on the 2016 draft. This time I'm going to assume they let Davis walk and keep Paulsen on a low salary deal.

Franchising Reed: ($10.0M)
Paulsen: ($1.0M)
Total Cap Hit: ($11.0M)

[Schneed10]

Who is on the 2017 roster, and where are the holes?

Defensive Line:

DL
DL Ricky Jean Francois
DL Stephen Paea

Depth: Trent Murphy

Players up for Free Agency: Chris Baker, Kendall Reyes, Ziggy Hood, Kedric Golston

This group obviously needs a ton of investment. I think we all know McCloughan will come out of the 2016 draft with a DL capable of starting by 2017, if not two of them.

Baker will be 29 next year. What do you do? Impossible to call it now, but let's just assume they resign him for a cap hit of $5.0M (a slight raise). The other departing guys are vet min types, so it's a wash as to whether you replace them with draft picks or resign them.

[Schneed10]

Who is on the 2017 roster, and where are the holes?

Linebackers:

Edge: Ryan Kerrigan, Preston Smith, Houston Bates
Middle: Mason Foster, Martrell Spaight

Players up for Free Agency: Junior Galette, Perry Riley, Will Compton, Adam Hayward, Terence Garvin

You can't have enough edge rushers, I'm going to assume Galette earns a pretty big deal from McCloughan. I think they let Riley Hayward and Garvin go, and resign Compton. The rest is filled in via the draft.

Resigning Galette: ($8.0M)
Resigning Compton: ($4.0M)
Total Cap Hit: ($12.0M)

[Schneed10]

Who is on the 2017 roster, and where are the holes?

Defensive Backs:

Corners: Josh Norman, Baushad Breeland, Chris Culliver, Will Blackmon, Quinton Dunbar, Deshazor Everett
Safeties: DeAngelo Hall, David Bruton, Kyshoen Jarrett

Players up for Free Agency: Greg Toler (like we care), Duke Ihenacho

Suddenly corner is nice and crowded. Safety is a need. Everett may convert, and I think it's highly likely McCloughan does something at safety in 2016's draft.

I'm actually going to assume that by 2017 Culliver is gone, mostly because I think Dunbar will develop some, and Jarrett provides the flexibility to come down and cover the slot. You just shouldn't pay Culliver that much to be your #3 CB, doesn't make sense. I like him, but resources. The rest I think is just draft, I see us letting the pending free agents walk.

Cutting Culliver frees: $6.8M

[Schneed10]

Who is on the 2017 roster, and where are the holes?

Specialists:

P Tress Way
K Dustin Hopkins
LS

Players up for Free Agency: Nick Sundberg

Need a long snapper. Give Sundberg a million, he's good.

[CRedskinsRule]

Nice breakdown but looks like that 40+M cap room gets used fast

Sent from my S6 Edge

[Schneed10]

So in conclusion, we start with 43M in space. We shed the contracts of Culliver and Roberts, creating another 10.8M in space. Then all the resignings I listed total up to (59M).

So yes, it uses all that space to keep EVERYBODY.

But here's the reality, somebody will disappoint us this year. McCloughan will let somebody go because they got hurt or performance dropped or something. That's just basic portfolio theory.

And I'm not even counting other cap saving moves. I have Lichtensteiger on this roster. And Lauvao. And Paea. Could they be replaced over the course of two drafts?

My point here is that keeping our core studs is not a problem. If you were worried about keeping Galette, Reed, and Cousins, don't. The space is there. The rest are decisions, do you keep Jackson and Garçon or do you find other options? If you really want to keep them it can be done.

The space goes fast, for sure. But holes will also be filled as McCloughan drafts twice. So, you get your cake and eat it too, Norman does not mean we lose our studs. But this is probably our big free agent move for the next couple seasons. Over the next two years it's draft and resign our own, just how McCloughan likes it.

[Schneed10]

I'm done, discuss away. I hope this was helpful.

[CrazyCanuck]

Good stuff.

[That Guy]

i think 8m in the first year for dj/jg/pg is probably a bit optimistic (well, maybe not pg). i know norman is getting that, but he's counting 20m/17m in the next two years. we'll still need mid level guys and a draft class next year, which eats up ~15m or so.

so technically you might be able to keep everyone and bump the bigger parts of their contracts into 2017/2018, but realistically, norman probably ends up costing us PG or galette (as well as culliver, but meh).