Don's Crystal Ball Week 1 Picks

[D'BOYZ]

Sorry guys there will be some misspells the article hasn't gone through editing and I was running close to the deadline. Season predictions will be up Saturday at the latest.

Thxs

WEEK 1 LEAGUE PICKS

By TheDon
Analyst/Godfather
Staff Writer for http://www.cowboysaddicts.com

CONGRATULATIONS TO THE 2012 DON’S PREDICTION LEAGUE CHAMPIONS

*** eRandall38 from 49ers Message Board Community ***
*** Charlie Brown from Cowboys Addicts - Dallas Cowboys Forum, News, Games, and More - Latest Articles***

Quick Hits

• For the past 13 years at least two teams with losing records make it into the playoffs and surprise everyone. This year I see two teams that could continue that streak going: New Orleans and Kansas City.
• Last year five teams started the season with a rookie quarterback only one won his debut: Robert Griffin III. This year we have three teams starting either a rookie or a quarterback with zero experience.
• For the past six seasons home teams average 10 wins on week 1, last year it was nine.
• Remember every year at least four new teams get into the post season. Which are the teams that are going to make it this year and which teams will fall short?
• I hope I can see the day that another position other than Quarterback or Running Back wins the MVP if not they should change the name of the award.
• Since is week 1, expect several upsets. Jim Mora said it best "you think you know, but you don't know"

On to the games

Baltimore at Denver -8 Ovr/Und 48.5

Everyone is underestimating the reigning champions because they went into a complete overhaul during the offseason. What people tend to forget was that team had one of the worst defenses during the season filled with players that had past their prime. On the other side everyone are almost already giving the AFC Championship to the Broncos without even playing one game. Everyone is looking at the Denver’s offense but ignoring their defense, a defense that’s missing both of their premier pass-rushers and their best corner. I expect the Broncos to win at home because is a huge advantage to start the season but I also expect a closer game that the line suggest. Also take the over on this game.
Straight: DEN
Spread: BAL
Ovr/Und: OVR


New England at Buffalo 10.5 Ovr/Und 49.5
A few days ago the starting quarterback for the Buffalo Bills was undrafted free agent QB Jeff Tuel. Since then the Bills have announced rookie QB EJ Manuel will start the game. Everyone was worried about New England’s offense with all that happened in the offseason but people forget that as long as the Patriots have Tom Brady and Bill Belichick on that team there’s really nothing to worry. What I’ve been very excited about the Patriots actually is their defense. I actually have them in several of my fantasy teams. This is a unit that has made changes the past few years from being a liability to being strength. They’re one of the unit’s that generate the most turnovers in the NFL and that’s what wins games. Take the Patriots and the points but go with the under.

Straight: NE
Spread: NE
Ovr/Und: Und

Tennessee at Pittsburgh 7 Ovr/Und 41.5
This game has the making of an upset special. Both teams have a bad 2012 season. Pittsburgh is entering the year with a lot of question marks on offense and defense so they’re really hard to figure out right now. I like how the Titans upgraded their offensive line this offseason and their defense is underrated but, I still have a hard time trusting Jake Locker. I suggest to stay away of this game but if you’re going to bet go with the points.

Straight: PIT
Spread:TEN
Ovr/Und: Und

Atlanta at New Orleans -3 Ovr/Und 54
UPSET OF THE WEEK
A lot of people in the media believe that Sean Payton will comeback from his suspension and bring this team back to their glory days and really ignore the holes this team has. Not only this team is switching to a 3-4 defense this season they brought Rob Ryan to run it a coordinator that’s well known for overcomplicating his system and this team he’s doing it to an unit that wasn’t built to be a 3-4 defense. The superdome is one of the hardest venues to play in the NFL specially this being the first game of the season and the return of Payton. Still I expect the Falcons to overcome this and take the victory. Bet the over on this game both teams have high-scoring offenses and not the best defenses.

Straight: ATL
Spread: ATL
Ovr/Und: Ovr

Tampa Bay at New York Jets 3 Ovr/Und 40.5
I wish I had something nice to say to all my New York Jets followers but they know as well as I do that their team is a complete mess. The only bright side I can see, is that they get a chance to see Geno Smith play for the start of the season and that could end up determine, if next year this team draft one of the future franchise quarterbacks or they stick with Smith. The Buccaneers are starting the season with questions to their o-line and pass-rush but still I see a better unit and a stronger locker room.

Straight:TB
Spread: TB
Ovr/Und: UND

Kansas City at Jacksonville 3.5 Ovr/Und 41

Another game that could turn into an upset, it’s no secret that I believe the Chiefs will be one of the surprise teams of the 2013 season. They have an underrated defense that was one of the best last season that got overlooked, because of how bad their offense was. Alex Smith has been a lot better the past few years and I truly believe he will have a good chemistry with Andy Reid. I expect the Jaguars to be better than most people think but in this case I have to go with my surprise team.

Straight: KC
Spread: KC
Ovr/Und: OVR

Seattle at Carolina 3 Ovr/Und 45.5

Seattle is a team that usually doesn’t travel well east but being that this is the first game of the season I wouldn’t be putting too much into it. The Seahawks are one of those teams that look even better than they did last season where they were only five yards away of the NFC Championship. They are one of the teams with the most depth in the NFL. I really like Caroline’s defense Luke Kuechly can be the DMVP of this year and I don’t know if there’s a team with a better front-four in the NFL. Both rookie defensive tackles looked great during preseason and I have Star Lotulelei penciled as this year Defensive Rookie of the year. Expect a low scoring game with the visiting team taking the win.

Straight:SEA
Spread:SEA
Ovr/Und:UND

Cincinnati at Chicago 3 Ovr/Und 42.5

This could be one of the best games of week 1. I like how good Chicago’s offensive line looked during the preseason but they’ll have to survive the test of the new $50 million dollar man on the Bengals defense Geno Atkins this weekend, if they do then you can call me a believer. I have the Bengals as one of my favorite teams in the AFC this season and I expect them to start gun blazing from week one. Take the Bengals and Over on this one.

Straight: CIN
Spread: CIN
Ovr/Und: OVR

Miami at Cleveland 1 Ovr/Und 40.5
Count me as one of the people that didn’t bought the stock of the free agency winners Miami Dolphins. Yes they brought some offensive weapons for Tannenhill but they lost All-Pro tackle Jake Long and didn’t replace him with anybody. Lamar Miller won the running back starting position by default and they lost tight end Dustin Keller for the season. On the other hand, count me as one that’s drinking the Cleveland Browns Kool-aid. The browns signed Norv Turner to handle the offense and use his magic on Weeden and they also brought Ray Horton to handle the defense. This team is one year away of being a serious playoffs contender but they could sneak this year in a really average AFC conference.
Straight:CLE
Spread: CLE
Ovr/Und: OVR

Minnesota at Detroit -4.5 Ovr/Und 47
These two teams worry me a lot this season. On one part, I consider Minnesota’s playoffs appearance last year a fluke based on one of the best season a running back has ever had but in reality is an average team with a below average quarterback. On the other hand Detroit has a really good d-line but still suffers from the same problems in secondary. The addition of Reggie Bush was good but this team will always go as far as Calvin Johnson can take them. Take the home team on this one but I wouldn’t bet my Benjamin’s on this game.

Straight: DET
Spread: DET
Ovr/Und: UND

Oakland at Indianapolis -9.5 Ovr/Und 47

I stated on my season predictions that the Raiders this season could end up being the worst team ever in the NFL if that’s even achievable. I haven’t seen a worst assembled team in the NFL in all the years I’ve been following. What Raiders fans should be asking is: Will the Raiders draft a franchise quarterback with the first overall pick next year or a one in a lifetime defensive end?
The Colts had really easy schedules last year that help them propel to the playoffs. This year they are a better year but could end up missing the playoffs if that makes any sense. Anyway take the Colts to win and cover this week.

Straight:IND
Spread: IND
Ovr/Und: UND

San Francisco at Green bay -4.5 Ovr/Und 49

What a waste of a game for a week one matchup. This is the type of games we all want to see during November when the games matter a lot more. This will be a game of inches that either side can win. Forget about the Divisional game last year where Kaepernick completely humiliated the Packers defense that won’t happen this time around. I expect a close game that could end up being decided by three points.

Straight: SF
Spread: GB
Ovr/Und: OVR

Arizona at St. Louis : -4.5 Ovr/Und 41
Don’t count me as a Carson Palmer believer; I feel that everyone got stuck with the image of Palmer before his knee injury in their head and either ignore or forget what he has done since then. Palmer is an above average quarterback that turns the ball over way too much for my liking. I don’t expect the Cardinals to do great this year and I do expect them drafting his replacement next year. On the other hand I have been high on the Rams since they hired Jeff Fisher. I liked what he has done to fix the team; I loved the RGIII trade that is bringing all the pieces that will make this team good for years to come. Take the Rams to win this game and don’t be surprised if they sneak into the playoffs this year.

Straight: STL
Spread: STL
Ovr/Und: UND

New York Giants at Dallas: -3 Ovr/Und 49

Last year I picked the Cowboys as an upset to beat the 2011 champions and break the streak of Super Bowl Champions winning the first game of the season. This year I’m picking the Cowboys to break another streak, and that one is the 4-0 record that Eli Manning and the Giants have at what’s now called AT&T stadium. It’s not like the games have been one-sided, last year’s game literally came down to three fingers. If Dez Bryant gets that hand inside this record would had been already broken. The Giants are coming into this game with even more question marks in their offensive line than the Cowboys if that’s even possible and their defensive line is not what it used to be. Take the Cowboys and the over on this one.

Straight: DAL
Spread: DAL
Ovr/Und: OVR

Philadelphia at Washington : -3.5 Ovr/Und 50.5
UPSET OF THE WEEK
I’m sorry, I’m a believe it when I see it type of guy. Yes, RGIII is an exceptional athlete but, I don’t expect him to come from an ACL injury suffered in January and be the same type of explosive player he was last season seven months after. I would have felt better about this game if Kirk Cousins was healthier, but for this week I’m not taking the Redskins. I expect Chip Kelly’s offense to catch the Redskin’s off guard just like they did last year to the rest of the NFL with the pistol offense. I don’t like the Eagles defense and that’s a reason why I don’t have them going far this year but this week I would take the Eagles and the over.
Straight: PHI
Spread: PHI
Ovr/Und: Ovr

Houston at San Diego: 3.5 Ovr/Und 44

San Diego is a team that missed their window; Phillip Rivers has completely lost his mojo. He just last confidence and can’t make the throws he used to make. I’m worried about that offensive line and secondary I just see a team that completely lost their way. Houston is entering the season with some question marks but they still have one of the best defenses in the game. Take the Texans to win and cover.

Straight: HOU
Spread:HOU
Ovr/Und: OVR


The Hot Picks

Baltimore (league)
New England (league)
St Louis (league)
Dallas
Atlanta
Seattle

[CRedskinsRule]

You lost me when Baltimore had to play twice (I get typo's, but wrong team names, it's definitely NOT bonafide)

You have your right to your opinion, but you say you are a believe it when you see it guy then dismiss a team with a Head coach who has a 15-4 season opener record for a team that has a head coach who has never played, coached or won at the NFL level. Color me unimpressed. The Skins win on MNF may be on the back of Morris, like when we beat the Cowboys to win the division, but make no mistake that Griffin will be in game shape and ready to play 4 quarters of football.

[calia]

He lost me when he made refence to Kelly's offense catching folks off guard last year like our pistol offense did the NFL last year. Uh, we were 3-6 through 9 games, dude. Yeah we put up points, but it's hard to say we overwhelmed our opponents -- indeed, we didn't start doing that until the 7 game winning streak. Chalk this up to yet another pundit who thinks that unless RGIII can run, he cannot win -- not exactly high praise despite RGIII's passing abiliity -- 20 TDs, 5 INTs, 3200 yards, and high completion percentage as a rookie.

Ah well, everyone is entitled to his or her own opinion. Guess we'll see who is right on Monday.

[GTripp0012]

I don't even read D'BOYZ original post in these threads anymore, I just read the reactions. Which are great.

[skinsfaninok]

Your talking about the ultimate homer cowboys fan, who like the rest are never around here come week 10

[MTK]

lol love the RG3 doubt

[skinsfaninok]

Yeah it seems like everyone is doubting Griffin now. It's going to be great when we win the east again and make a run in January.

[Hog1]

Bless you Don for pickin' the Igg's...........

[Bucket]

[D'BOYZ]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

You lost me when Baltimore had to play twice (I get typo's, but wrong team names, it's definitely NOT bonafide)

You have your right to your opinion, but you say you are a believe it when you see it guy then dismiss a team with a Head coach who has a 15-4 season opener record for a team that has a head coach who has never played, coached or won at the NFL level. Color me unimpressed. The Skins win on MNF may be on the back of Morris, like when we beat the Cowboys to win the division, but make no mistake that Griffin will be in game shape and ready to play 4 quarters of football.

Yeah I apologize about that mistake was on the title like I said posted it before editing because of time constraints.

My decision has little to do with Shanahan's ability and more to do with the situation on both starting and backup QB. Do I expect the Redskins to have a good season yes. But do I believe they are entering week 1 with enough question marks to call an UPSET. yes

I know what's Shanahan's record in Opening day that's why I called it an UPSET and not a win because I believe the Eagles are better.

[D'BOYZ]

Originally Posted by calia

He lost me when he made refence to Kelly's offense catching folks off guard last year like our pistol offense did the NFL last year. Uh, we were 3-6 through 9 games, dude. Yeah we put up points, but it's hard to say we overwhelmed our opponents -- indeed, we didn't start doing that until the 7 game winning streak. Chalk this up to yet another pundit who thinks that unless RGIII can run, he cannot win -- not exactly high praise despite RGIII's passing abiliity -- 20 TDs, 5 INTs, 3200 yards, and high completion percentage as a rookie.

Ah well, everyone is entitled to his or her own opinion. Guess we'll see who is right on Monday.

And you don't believe that RGIII's threat as a runner makes him a better passer? The fact that you guys had the best running game and a QB that could scramble and destroyed you.

Not only sells the Option run but also the play-action, plus RG3 has a great accuracy throwing on the run.

All those abilities forced defenses to focus on him more and left a lot of WR wide open.

If he can't scramble you take away 1 of his weapons which stops part of the defensive guessing game.

[over the mountain]

don are you still watching games at the caliente in TJ? man i wish i was back on that side of the world.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by D'BOYZ

Yeah I apologize about that mistake was on the title like I said posted it before editing because of time constraints.

My decision has little to do with Shanahan's ability and more to do with the situation on both starting and backup QB. Do I expect the Redskins to have a good season yes. But do I believe they are entering week 1 with enough question marks to call an UPSET. yes

I know what's Shanahan's record in Opening day that's why I called it an UPSET and not a win because I believe the Eagles are better.

I guess it was your lead off statement about being a believe it when you see it guy that makes your picking the eagles odd. What has Kelly, Vick, or their revamped D done to make you believe they would be able to stop a pretty solid Skins rushing game, or not turnover the ball multiple times as Vick is prone to do. Just an odd basis for an upset pick.

[Green Monk Machine]

Listening to a cowboy fan downplay the current and future success of the Redskins and explain the Redskins, is laughable and as informative as Fox News.

[irish]

I wouldnt say what I have right now is RG3 doubt but I'm not completely sold on him being 100% for week 1. Sure he's ready to play but I think it will take him a week or two to get up to full speed and make sure the knee can hold up under game conditions. That said, I dont see Philly winning this game.