Don's Crystal Ball Week 1 Picks

[D'BOYZ]

THE DON'S
Crystal Ball

2010 SEASON
WEEK 1 PICKS

By DonCanabis/TheDon
Analyst/Godfather

Well we survived the 5 months without football and the month of preseason right now everyone is undefeated and with a chance to make it to the Superbowl, well lets get real almost every team it’s not like Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Cleveland and St. Louis are really striking any fear to the rest of the NFL.

Quick Hits

• Some people say week 1 doesn’t matter and in some extent I can agree a lot of team make the playoffs after losing their first game heck some have made it with even a 0-3 record but, if you’re talking about winning it all, week 1 really matters. Superbowl winners have a 36-7-1 week 1 record so not to put pressure but it your team loses this week it has a 15% chance of winning the Superbowl not great odds to start the season.
• That’s the thing I personally love about football and why I don’t like the Idea of an 18 game season, Football is the only sport when every game truly matters. In Baseball, Hockey, Basketball you can go into a 10 game losing streak and still have a shot, here a 3 game losing streak and you can almost call it a day and start planning for the next season.
• There are 4 teams that I consider could be this year’s biggest surprises if they play not only at their potential but show the little extra. Each year we see at least 2 teams come out of nowhere and make the playoffs and even a run for the Superbowl. In 2006 was the Saints, 2007 the giants, 2008 Arizona, 2009 New York Jets. This year I see Miami, Oakland, Carolina and Detroit as teams that might surprise us.
• I really believe this is the year Favre should actually retired, I don’t see him repeating a perfect season like last year, I see him defeated before the season started, his injury is really serious and he doesn’t have the same weapons

On to the games

Minnesota at New Orleans -4.5 Ovr/Und 49

The Rematch of the 2008 NFC Championship, this will be bloodbath both teams have it against each other and will come after each other no better way to start the season. The only person that I believe that didn’t want this game this week is Brett Favre. Expect high scoring.

Straight: NO
Spread: NO
Ovr/Und: Ovr

Cleveland at Tampa Bay -3 Ovr/Und 37

Brown Fans look at this week very carefully because this will be the only time this year that your team will have a winning record.
Straight: Cle
Spread: Cle
Ovr/Und: Und

Miami at Buffalo 3 Ovr/Und 38.5
To Franchise going in different directions, if Miami’s young defense and QB can play to their potential this could be a very difficult team.
Straight: Miami
Spread: Miami
Ovr/Und: Und

Cincinnati at New England -5 Ovr/Und 44.5
UPSET OF THE WEEK
If the Bengals can exploit all their weapons and put pressure on Brady I can see them getting this win. New England has many question marks but at the end of the day they still have Brady, Moss and Welker should this be enough? Not this week.
Straight: Cin
Spread: Cin
Ovr/Und: Ovr

Indianapolis at Houston 2.5 Ovr/Und 47
UPSET OF THE WEEK
Houston has always put up a fight against the Colts just to fell flat at the end, Houston now has a team to compete against the Colts and though Peyton takes every game serious this game means a lot more to the Texans I expect an upset this week.
Straight: Hou
Spread: Hou
Ovr/Und: Ovr

Denver at Jacksonville -2.5 Ovr/Und 39.5
Both teams enter the season with big question marks, but injuries makes the biggest in this case the home team and the under.
Straight: Jac
Spread: Jac
Ovr/Und: Und

Atlanta at Pittsburgh 3 Ovr/Und 38

There isn’t such a thing like a sure victory in the NFL, but this is as close as you’ll ever get. Dixon didn’t show anything during the preseason so I don’t expect him to impress me now. The only good thing about this game is 1 less game before Ben is back.

Straight:Atl
Spread:Atl
Ovr/Und:Ovr

Oakland at Tennessee - 6.5 Ovr/Und 41
Campbell’s and Bush injuries worry me for this game if it wasn’t for it I would expect it to be closes match. But taking it that it’s week 1 on the road with key injuries I’ll have to go with the Home team.

Straight: Ten
Spread: Ten
Ovr/Und: Und

Carolina at New York Giants -7 Ovr/Und 41
New York has many weapons for that defense to cover, Moore will be getting pressure for everywhere and I expect Steve Smith to shine that’s S. Smith 2.0. It’s a great test to see if having so many weapons at the front 4 can actually stop Carolinas running game.
Straight:NYG
Spread: NYG
Ovr/Und: Ovr

Detroit at Chicago -6 Ovr/Und 43
This is a closer match than the line Suggests Detroit’s front four will be putting a lot of pressure to Cutler against that oline it’s just a matter of who makes more plays and this game could come up to the last play.
Straight: Chi
Spread: Det
Ovr/Und: Ovr

Arizona at St.Louis 4 Ovr/Und 39

Even with Derek Anderson as the QB Arizona should win this game, Bradford will notice the difference between pre and regular season.

Straight: Ari
Spread: Ari
Ovr/Und: Und

Green Bay at Philadelphia 3 Ovr/Und 47

Not the best way to start a career against a Superbowl contender. Expect a lot of pressure to Kolb early they’ll try to see how he handles it. This should be a high scoring game.

Straight: GB
Spread: GB
Ovr/Und: Ovr

San Francisco at Seattle : 2.5 Ovr/Und 38
I expect Alex smith to have a good year just protecting the football not making tons of mistake I expect Hasselbeck to make many.
Straight: SF
Spread: SF
Ovr/Und: Ovr

Dallas at Washington : 4.5 Ovr/Und 40
Dallas start the season with some question marks after a forgettable preseason, injuries to the Oline could hurt them early on and if this team doesn’t find the endzone fast and click, could get frustrated easily and lose everything. McNabb isn’t 100% and this is the coaching staff first rodeo so even if I expect them to get better the first one isn’t always pretty.
Straight: Dal
Spread: Dal
Ovr/Und: Und

Baltimore at New York Jets : -2.5 Ovr/Und 36
This will be a great test for both teams. The Jets Defense has look great the Jets offense nonexistent. If Baltimore’s offense can score against this team we might have something here. Expect the Ravens to put the first Hard Knocks on the Jets season.
Straight: Bal
Spread: Bal
Ovr/Und: Ovr

San Diego at Kansas City : 5 Ovr/Und 45
The Chargers couldn’t ask for a better opponent to start the season. The chief don’t have the pressure to really test the Left tackle so I expect San Diego to score and start the season with a high note.
Straight: SD
Spread: SD
Ovr/Und: Ovr

The Hot Picks

Atlanta (league)
Green Bay (league)
New Orleans (league)
Miami
Dallas
Cincinnati

[Mechanix544]

wrong, carolina will beat the g strings, seattle will win vs 49ers, and the skins win at home.

YOU ARE WRONG!!!!!!!

[tootergray34]

please give me your action against the 49ers mechanix544 that is a striaght LOCK for San Fran.

and does anybody else really think peyton manning is going to lose hsi first game out after losing in the superbowl? I don't care if Houston has their number or not...peyton has won like what 12+ games a year for what seems like an eternity now? I'd play the colts and maybe tease it to 2 points. I just don't see how they lose that game


I also like Green Bay, those are my 3 big bets of the week

so in this order


49ers
GreenBay
Colts


3 team teaser and all by themselves. hopefully you will enjoy the cash!

[tootergray34]

miami doesn't look too bad of a bet either vs. buffalo

[D'BOYZ]

Originally Posted by tootergray34

please give me your action against the 49ers mechanix544 that is a striaght LOCK for San Fran.

and does anybody else really think peyton manning is going to lose hsi first game out after losing in the superbowl? I don't care if Houston has their number or not...peyton has won like what 12+ games a year for what seems like an eternity now? I'd play the colts and maybe tease it to 2 points. I just don't see how they lose that game


I also like Green Bay, those are my 3 big bets of the week

so in this order


49ers
GreenBay
Colts


3 team teaser and all by themselves. hopefully you will enjoy the cash!

tootergray I agree on you point with Peyton andt it's a huge risk but each week yu have to go with what you see rather than what you expect. Manning has lost the first game of the season before I'm just making a gamble based on what I saw last year and what I know of both teams

[artmonkforhallofamein07]

ovr not looking to good in tonights game!

[tryfuhl]

man you sure took the over in a lot of those

[D'BOYZ]

week 1 usually has a lot of Overs not a lot of tape for Defense to gameplan... only week were good offense has advantage over defense.

Yeah this game wasn't even close to over.. it had promise when the first drive went for a td but it want south after that

[tryfuhl]

also offenses struggling to meld

[Monkeydad]

NO vs MIN: Expect high scoring...





Example # 8978907890789 why never trust a Dallas fan's football predictions. They're supposed to go 14-2 and win it all every year...never even win a playoff game.

[over the mountain]

Don i respect the fact that you take football gambling serious, cut n paste your weekly predictions on a ton of football forums, the fact that you go down to the caliente to watch the games and TJ hookers but, serious question . .

have you ever picked the skins to win against the cowboys? im just wondering b/c you take gambling very seriously, seem to have your system for it but then when it comes to the skins v boys, you seem to turn into a typical fan picking your team.

for the past 3 years or so I have been on here, I cant remember a time when you picked the skins to win against the boys. do you just throw out your system and methods of deciding games when it comes to the skins v boys?

also i dont know about taking the over in the ravens jets game. i dont gamble much so Im going off gut feelings but I dont see a high scoring game unless both defenses cause serious tunrovers and scores for themselves.

[mlmpetert]

Originally Posted by D'BOYZ

week 1 usually has a lot of Overs not a lot of tape for Defense to gameplan... only week were good offense has advantage over defense.

Yeah this game wasn't even close to over.. it had promise when the first drive went for a td but it want south after that

Vegas knows theres not as much game planning defenses can do week one and adjust their over/under accordingly. In the last 2 years ive paid attention to week 1 over/under lines and ive been real reluctant to take the over in week one.

My thoughts are offense is more of a thinking man’s game and based more on timing, execution, and QB-WR relationships, while defense is more instinctual/reactionary. So I think when you have new plays, new players starting or a new system in place the learning curve on offensive is greater than the learning curve on defensive. Plus big changes like complete change in scheme or major personal don’t happen on defense nearly as much as they do on offensive. So that being said I think defense has the advantage in week one. I think Vegas also takes this in consideration, but in the last 2 years Im pretty sure if you took the under across the board you would have gotten more than 50% right.

[firstdown]

Originally Posted by over the mountain

Don i respect the fact that you take football gambling serious, cut n paste your weekly predictions on a ton of football forums, the fact that you go down to the caliente to watch the games and TJ hookers but, serious question . .

have you ever picked the skins to win against the cowboys? im just wondering b/c you take gambling very seriously, seem to have your system for it but then when it comes to the skins v boys, you seem to turn into a typical fan picking your team.

for the past 3 years or so I have been on here, I cant remember a time when you picked the skins to win against the boys. do you just throw out your system and methods of deciding games when it comes to the skins v boys?

also i dont know about taking the over in the ravens jets game. i dont gamble much so Im going off gut feelings but I dont see a high scoring game unless both defenses cause serious tunrovers and scores for themselves.

Dude just look at his screen name DBoys reminds me of the saying sausage fest.

[Monkeydad]

Originally Posted by firstdown

Dude just look at his screen name DBoys reminds me of the saying sausage fest.

He's Homo for Romo.

[firstdown]