Failed Completions

[GTripp0012]

Aaron Schatz, over at football outsiders, released this list today of failed completions, which is designed to measure how frequent a quarterback ineffectively dumps the ball off, and not enough yardage is gained to constitute a "successful" play.

As I'm sure a bunch of people (myself included) suspected, Jason Campbell is on the list of top ten quarterbacks in failed completions. He's actually tied for ninth with Peyton Manning with 79 "unsuccessful" completions (24% of his total completions). What's more interesting, to me at least, is some of the players higher up on the list.

[53Fan]

If a pass is thrown to a RB for example to avoid a sack, is that considered a failed completion if it doesn't get the desired yardage? Even though it saved a loss? My guess would be yes. So line protection would also play into this stat correct?

[freddyg12]

very interesting stat. JC isn't in the top10 in rate though, neither are brees or farve.

I would like to see this stat compared w/sack & penalty plays. If a qb is more often facing 3rd & long he'll have more of these of course.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by 53Fan

If a pass is thrown to a RB for example to avoid a sack, is that considered a failed completion if it doesn't get the desired yardage? Even though it saved a loss? My guess would be yes. So line protection would also play into this stat correct?

Yep. Excellent point.

[over the mountain]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Aaron Schatz, over at football outsiders, released this list today of failed completions, which is designed to measure how frequent a quarterback ineffectively dumps the ball off, and not enough yardage is gained to constitute a "successful" play.

As I'm sure a bunch of people (myself included) suspected, Jason Campbell is on the list of top ten quarterbacks in failed completions. He's actually tied for ninth with Peyton Manning with 79 "unsuccessful" completions (24% of his total completions). What's more interesting, to me at least, is some of the players higher up on the list.

i dont know how relevant this is but more than 2,000 of JCs 3600 yds passing came after the catch. that means something like 67.8% of his yards were YAC..... by far the most in the NFL last year.

i dont know how to interpret that 67.8 stat b/c YAC is a good thing, especialy in a west coast type offense. the part that gets me is just how much higher JC's percent of passing yds came YAC compared to any other qb. i would think leading teh league in YAC would be indicative of a proficient offense but after seeing this season im starting to think to much YAC has to be a negative indication of something, too many check downs? i dont know.

[GhettoDogAllStars]

Originally Posted by over the mountain

i dont know how relevant this is but more than 2,000 of JCs 3600 yds passing came after the catch. that means something like 67.8% of his yards were YAC..... by far the most in the NFL last year.

i dont know how to interpret that 67.8 stat b/c YAC is a good thing, especialy in a west coast type offense. the part that gets me is just how much higher JC's percent of passing yds came YAC compared to any other qb. i would think leading teh league in YAC would be indicative of a proficient offense but after seeing this season im starting to think to much YAC has to be a negative indication of something, too many check downs? i dont know.

Well, when you yac too much it makes your stomach hurt.

Good article GTripp, I just don't know how to apply it to come to any conclusions.

[rbanerjee23]

Now let's compare offensive lines...Jason Campbell had the worst in the NFL. You can't judge him as being mediocre in stats that don't tell the whole picture. What is more fundamental to a football team, a quarterback or the five men protecting him?

[Paintrain]

That was really interesting to see the company that he was in. Let's see what the whole 'all he does is dump off' crowd has to say about that.

[over the mountain]

^^ he does dump off alot, even for a WC style offense imo. check the other qb stats on football outsiders and see where he ranks compared to other nfl qbs there. 13th to 23rd-ish in most of football outsider's weighted stats.

[steveo395]

Look at the rate of failed completions. I think that stat tells you more than the total number. Just look at the bums that made that top 10.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by over the mountain

i dont know how relevant this is but more than 2,000 of JCs 3600 yds passing came after the catch. that means something like 67.8% of his yards were YAC..... by far the most in the NFL last year.

i dont know how to interpret that 67.8 stat b/c YAC is a good thing, especialy in a west coast type offense. the part that gets me is just how much higher JC's percent of passing yds came YAC compared to any other qb. i would think leading teh league in YAC would be indicative of a proficient offense but after seeing this season im starting to think to much YAC has to be a negative indication of something, too many check downs? i dont know.

I can verify the validity of this. Campbell led the league in YAC from his receivers.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by GhettoDogAllStars

Well, when you yac too much it makes your stomach hurt.

Good article GTripp, I just don't know how to apply it to come to any conclusions.

It might not mean anything. Next year's top ten list could be void of 7 or 8 names on this list, including Campbells.

Or it might mean a lot about players who "check down" a lot. It's anyones guess really.

[saden1]

That's some great analysis. JC is really a good QB and I am miffed at how much hate he gets. I wonder sometimes if these people are watching the same game.

[saden1]

Originally Posted by GhettoDogAllStars

Well, when you yac too much it makes your stomach hurt.

Good article GTripp, I just don't know how to apply it to come to any conclusions.

It means he is a capable reader of what defenses are doing and makes the necessary adjustment. He's not great at it but he is good at it contrary to popular belief. When he dumps it off a high percentage of his dump offs go for a modest gain at the very least and when he passes it to a receiver that receiver is wide open and gets mad YAC. He has done a pretty good job despite not having a decent offensive line, a capable running back, and good play caller for much of the year.

With better personal, coaching, and play calling the sky is the limit for JC.

[NYCskinfan82]

Originally Posted by saden1

It means he is a capable reader of what defenses are doing and makes the necessary adjustment. He's not great at it but he is good at it contrary to popular belief. When he dumps it off a high percentage of his dump offs go for a modest gain at the very least and when he passes it to a receiver that receiver is wide open and gets mad YAC. He has done a pretty good job despite not having a decent offensive line, a capable running back, and good play caller for much of the year.

With better personal, coaching, and play calling the sky is the limit for JC.

I agree