Om Field: Taking Free Agency in Context

[-Om-]

Taking Free Agency in Context
February 26, 2009

I had been treating myself to a break the past couple of weeks ... figure even obsessed fans need some kind of offseason.

That all ended the minute the web started buzzing with Albert Haynesworth (hereinafter AH)-to-the-Redskins rumors.

One minute I had both feet firmly on the ground, it was mid-February and I was focused on family, my day job and the general pursuit of happiness.

The next, as the AH thing picked up steam, I was transported to early September ...


There’s Albert Haynesworth, collapsing a 3rd-and-long pocket in Dallas QB Tony Romo’s face.

Romo knows he needs an extra second to let his receiver clear the first down marker. He can’t step up, so he starts to bail right ... but encounters Jason Taylor, closing fast with evil intent. He glances left, but there’s Andre Carter bearing down, a fiendish grin on his usually corporate face.

Romo ignores the alarm bells in his head–he’s a playmaker after all. He flicks his eyes beyond the line of scrimmage, spies a flash of white jersey ... and smiles inside his head. Only losers need to throw on rhythm; only robots need 3.2 seconds to throw to the right spot on this play--3.0 will do just fine.

Two tenths of a second before becoming a burgundy and gold sandwich, Romo flicks a sweet sidearm job toward the sideline ...

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[Ruhskins]

Very good article.

[SBXVII]

Nice. Your 100% correct. The problem is we are 50/50 in these sort of FA moves. I hope it's one in which we can all look back and say this year was the difference maker and all the stars fell into line at the right moment with a smile on our faces watching the Skins battle for the Lumbardi.

[CRedskinsRule]

Let us raise a glass, then, to the start of the "real" offseason, but resolve to keep our wits about us as it unfolds.

No doubt in a New Years resolution kind of way. By tomorrow morning there will be posts galore either bemoaning or shouting SB XLIV Bound Baby.

I probably will be the latter

Good read thanks!

[BigHairedAristocrat]

Om only paints half the picture. Om has fallen victim to the same delusions that Vinny Cerrato and Daniel Snyder fall victim to every year - the thinking that making splashes in free agency equates to success in the regular season. every year, fans imagine how a few small changes, a few additions here and there, and we are competing for the Lombardi the following season.... thats not how it works. Thats the same recipe we've followed for years, and it hasnt worked. Yet every year, fans like Om fall into the same trap.

Being "50/50" in free agency is not good enough. 50/50 is a very good record for the draft, but its an utterly horrible one in free agency. When you miss, the effects last YEARS. We're still carrying a 5M cap hit for brandon lloyd for petes sake. Imagine what we could do with an extra 5M now? Looking back and just doing a cursory glance through our past free agent signings and bad extensions to our own players, we'd be sitting around 30M under the cap right now if we had made better moves... while having fewer needs to fill. If you look at Redskins Free Agency in Context, its not a pretty sight. Optomism is one thing, but lets not forget the track record of the men running this team.

[-Om-]

Nice speech, BHA, but you're in the wrong thread. I believe you were looking for one in which someone actually suggested that "big splashes in free agency equates to success in the regular season."

[Ruhskins]

Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat

Om only paints half the picture. Om has fallen victim to the same delusions that Vinny Cerrato and Daniel Snyder fall victim to every year - the thinking that making splashes in free agency equates to success in the regular season. every year, fans imagine how a few small changes, a few additions here and there, and we are competing for the Lombardi the following season.... thats not how it works. Thats the same recipe we've followed for years, and it hasnt worked. Yet every year, fans like Om fall into the same trap.

Being "50/50" in free agency is not good enough. 50/50 is a very good record for the draft, but its an utterly horrible one in free agency. When you miss, the effects last YEARS. We're still carrying a 5M cap hit for brandon lloyd for petes sake. Imagine what we could do with an extra 5M now? Looking back and just doing a cursory glance through our past free agent signings and bad extensions to our own players, we'd be sitting around 30M under the cap right now if we had made better moves... while having fewer needs to fill. If you look at Redskins Free Agency in Context, its not a pretty sight. Optomism is one thing, but lets not forget the track record of the men running this team.

But you can't also let this track record be the sole reason behind your opinion on moves that have not happened yet. If a person feels that the front office is going to screw things over and over again, or if they believe any move they make is going to end up in disaster, what's the point of being a fan.

Trust me, I know the bonehead/stupid moves the team has made, however they have also made some good moves (Fletch, Moss, Sellers, Washington, Hall, etc., etc.). I can't let past mistakes automatically make me believe that every single acquisition made by the FO is going to be bust, without looking at the circumstances around it. Also, let's not forget that a lot of these signings, like anything else in the NFL, is about taking chances and risks.

[53Fan]

Originally Posted by Ruhskins

But you can't also let this track record be the sole reason behind your opinion on moves that have not happened yet. If a person feels that the front office is going to screw things over and over again, or if they believe any move they make is going to end up in disaster, what's the point of being a fan.

Trust me, I know the bonehead/stupid moves the team has made, however they have also made some good moves (Fletch, Moss, Sellers, Washington, Hall, etc., etc.). I can't let past mistakes automatically make me believe that every single acquisition made by the FO is going to be bust, without looking at the circumstances around it. Also, let's not forget that a lot of these signings, like anything else in the NFL, is about taking chances and risks.

Excellent post Ruhskins!

[Bubba305-ST21-]

amen

[BigHairedAristocrat]

Originally Posted by -Om-

Nice speech, BHA, but you're in the wrong thread. I believe you were looking for one in which someone actually suggested that "big splashes in free agency equates to success in the regular season."

while you didnt specifically state it, your well-worded dream play with Landry intercepting the ball and Romo nearly getting killed in large part due to Haynesworth made me think you were in favor of such a move... my bad.

It was a well written article and a nice change of pace from the usual cynicism of JLC. I was just pointing out that your article focused on the potential positives. As SBXVII pointed out, the skins are 50/50 in their free agency moves. Theres just as good a chance that our moves will get us to 4-12 next year than there is we'll be 12-4. Truth is, if the skins do what they usually do, neither is a realistic. IMO, mo matter what is done in the offseason, its highly unlikely this team will ever be below 6-10 or above 10-6 as long as Snyder and Cerrato are running things.

Originally Posted by Ruhskins

But you can't also let this track record be the sole reason behind your opinion on moves that have not happened yet. If a person feels that the front office is going to screw things over and over again, or if they believe any move they make is going to end up in disaster, what's the point of being a fan.

Trust me, I know the bonehead/stupid moves the team has made, however they have also made some good moves (Fletch, Moss, Sellers, Washington, Hall, etc., etc.). I can't let past mistakes automatically make me believe that every single acquisition made by the FO is going to be bust, without looking at the circumstances around it. Also, let's not forget that a lot of these signings, like anything else in the NFL, is about taking chances and risks.

You prove my point. For every stupid move the team makes, there is also another really good one. I never said every move they make will be a bust. I agreed with SBXVII that its 50/50. History has proven that 50/50 isnt good enough.

and yes, the NFL, like any other busines, is about taking risks. But taking risks isnt about rolling the dice (atleast it shouldnt be). I work in the Enterprise Risk Management division of a responsible financial institution that made wise decisions to avoid contributing to the financial crisis that this country is in right now. It didnt stay out of trouble by not taking risks - you cant make money if you dont take risks - it stayed out of trouble by taking the right risks.

More often than not, Vinny Cerrato and Daniel Snyder do not take the right risks. To their credit, they do well in making decisions when theres not much risk involved (London Fletcher, low round draft picks). However, whenever they take an otherwise unaccaptable risk because the potential reward is high, more often than not, they make the wrong choice. Vinny Cerrato and Daniel Snyder are simply not good risk managers.