Redskins vs 49ers Defensive GT Review: A cold, hard reality

[GTripp0012]

One of the major problems, I guess, with spending so much time evaluating the Redskins as a whole this year, is that there seems to be a major discrepancy between how the national media perceives the Redskins defense to be, and how talented they actually are. The Redskins gave up 310 points in 2007. In 2008, they gave up 296. In the mind of those who don't follow the Redskins closely, that shows an improvement by the defensive side of the ball.

Of course, the 2007 Redskins defense also faced 16 more drives by opponents than the 2008 team did. That's basically two more games worth of drives in which the only difference was 16 points. Looking at it that way, it's clear that the Redskins defense has regressed from last year.

Thing was, for those following the team this year, it was already pretty clear that this wasn't the same unit last year. For one thing, this unit didn't have 8 games of the best free safety in football roaming the deep middle of the field preventing all sort of big plays. This unit didn't have a full season from Shawn Springs like last years did. While Carlos Rogers was active for all 16 games this year, he was inexcusably used far less in the month of December than counterparts DeAngelo Hall and Shawn Springs. Fred Smoot regressed from talented man coverage corner in 2007 to get-him-off-my-team corner in 2008.

And most noticeably, while Gregg Williams' unit last year was an excellent bend but don't break type of defense, Greg Blache's unit was notorious for poor efficiency in the red zone.

You know, now that the season was over, it seems unreasonable to have expected the defense to not have sustained any sort of drop-off after losing one of the most talented players in the league. But, I think, the way that this season started defensively made it pretty disappointing. At the beginning of the year, I predicted all the things that this season brought us: A career year from Portis. Continued development from Jason Campbell. Little impact from Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly. An 8-8 finish.

I didn't really expect to sit here and explain that we were outschemed by the Rams and the Bengals as we finished the year 2-6 in the final eight games. I definately did not expect to compile 16 games of data, only to find out that Shaun Hill and Ryan Fitzpatrick have the best numbers against our passing defense, especially when you consider that the Redskins were healthier on defense in December that at any point this year.

Nothing about this game really made sense. Look at the total defensive numbers for this game:

Vital Statistics
Total Adj Yards = 351 (54 plays)
Yards per play = 6.5 (prev. season high = 5.9 vs. Dallas both times)
Success Rate = 55.6% (prev. season high = 50.9% vs. Dallas wk 11)

I mean, that doesn't make any sense whatsoever. Is Mike Martz really a crazy genius, like his reputation suggests? Greg Blache didn't make that many schematic errors in this game, compared to the aforementioned Dallas game. This was just the 49ers offense, pathetic for most of the season (much improved since benching JT O'Sullivan), dominating the Redskins defense for four quarters. Run, pass, it didn't matter. The coverage chart and the tackle chart are equally as pathetic. The point is this: this was not only the worst production of the year from the defense only seven days after arguably the best, but it shattered the previous rock-bottom marks, and against an under-talented offense with everyone on the defense active and available

None of this is to excuse the offense, specifically the rush offense, from it's role in the Redskins' collapse in the second half of the year. Clinton Portis went into the midseason a hair shy of 1,000 yards, and finished with only 1,487. But there's a whole post still to come dedicated to what when wrong on offense in this one. The defenses issues appear to be way deeper and more confusing than the offenses.

Pass Defense

Vital Statistics
Total Adj Yds = 247
Yards per play = 8.0
Success Rate = 54.8% (17/31)

The Redskins have produced worse raw pass defense numbers this year, but that's always been against talented offenses, like the Giants, and with a game plan that was clearly about stopping the run first. They have no such excuse this week, as the run defense numbers are just as bad.

The Redskins gave up seven plays of 15 or more yards via the pass in this one. Seven. Last year, two would have represented a bad game.

Most of these numbers came from the second half. Greg Blache only blitzed once in the first half, and that was an intelligent backside safety fire on third and short that put Jason Taylor in perfect position to deflect the throw from Shaun Hill. Naturally, you may have guessed that when the 49ers were really tearing off chunks of yards in the air play after play, Blache was giving them man coverage mismatches against their running backs with our linebackers, because he was sending our safeties on blitzes.

So while, on the most successful drive of the day for the 49ers, Martz owned Blache, it wouldn't be fair to Blache to say he didn't make the necessary adjustments, schematically at least. Ultimately, the Redskins just didn't cover the 49ers receivers down the field. Part of the problem was that, despite providing blanket coverage, and the only real defensive play of the game (a first half INT), Carlos Rogers watched two of the final three drives from the bench (both of which scoring drives), while Fred Smoot got toasted multiple times by someone named Jason Hill. Now, I may not be an expert on defense, but if Greg Blache thinks he has a better chance to win with Fred Smoot in the game than Carlos Rogers, then he obviously isn't either.

There has to be more than meets the eye here. I'm wondering if Blache offered up any post-game quotes in the media that might explain his decision. Obviously Blache doesn't think that Smoot gives the Redskins a better chance to win than Rogers. Perhaps Rogers is in the doghouse because of his performance in practice during the week (because he's been stellar all season in the games). Maybe it's as simple as that Blache wants to give Smoot more time on the field in order to evaluate whether or not he will be back next year. I'm just pointing out: if the primary goal was to play the players that give the Redskins the best chance to win, this was a failure of epic proportions. I think there's probably a much bigger story than this one is letting on through the game film.

Coverage
(Targets, Completions against, SR against, YPA)

Shawn Springs - 6, 5, 67%, 10.0
DeAngelo Hall - 5, 5, 60%, 7.0
Carlos Rogers - 4, 1, 25%, 2.3
Fred Smoot - 3, 2, 67%, 11.7
Marcus Washington - 3, 3, 67%, 6.0
Rocky McIntosh - 2, 2, 50%, 14.5
London Fletcher - 2, 2, 100%, 15.5
Kareem Moore - 1, 1, 100%, 24.0
Chris Horton - 1, 1, 100%, 28.0

Not enough has been made about the role of Chris Horton in the decline of the pass defense over the course of the season. He's still just an unbelievable tackler with legendary closing speed, but he's probably not as great in coverage as we all thought when he lead the team in INTs earlier this year. He's really a poor pass rusher as well, so there's not a whole lot of things you can do to hide him against the pass.

The Redskins' safeties as a whole have actually been terrible in coverage this year. LaRon Landry is the only Redskin Safety with fewer than 7 YPA allowed, but Landry also allowed a bunch of deep passes earlier in the season where he bit on a shorter route opening up man coverage on the outside between a much better receiver and an inferior corner. Think Fitzgerald's TD against Reed Doughty, or Donnie Avery's game winning reception against Leigh Torrence, or Nate Washington's long 50 yard catch against Fred Smoot. In all of those plays, Landry would have broken up the pass with a correct diagnosis, but he was out of position all those times. None of those counted against his YPA, but you know, Sean Taylor wouldn't have let that happen.

Run Defense

Vital Statistics
Total Adj Yards = 104
Yards per play = 4.5
Success Rate = 56.5% (13/23)

I'll start by saying that the San Francisco offensive line was better than the Washington defensive line in this one. Anthony Montgomery played a really good game. Corneilius Griffin played a really good game, but it could have been even better if he had made a few plays in the backfield that he had shots at. Demetric Evans and Kedric Golston were pushed around all day long. Montgomery and Griffin kept the 49ers DL away from Fletcher, Golston was on the ground too much, and allowed lineman to get on Fletcher, and make him less than effective.

TE Vernon Davis was the key cog in the running game for the 49ers as he has been all season. The man doesn't miss blocks. Considering the knock on him coming out of college was that he was too small to be an effective blocker at the next level, it's laughable how wrong the analysts were on that one. Davis isn't an elite TE, but he is an elite blocker, and could absolutely play LT in a pinch. When he got on a LB, he won the battle 100% of the time, unless the LB was HB Blades. Problem was, Blades only played on Nickel and Goal Line packages for the Redskins, and those 4 WR packages took Davis off the field for the 49ers.

HB Blades is going to be a superstar in this league. He's got coverage issues, but he's unbelievably instinctive against the run. Not that Rocky McIntosh doesn't have good instincts, but his knees are clearly an issue, and Blades is just better at this point in his career. Marcus Washington is still getting it done at SLB. He's no longer a pass rushing force, but I think his presence on the field still makes a big difference.

Bottom line: like every other team in the league, if you get a big body on Fletcher, you can run on the Redskins. If you can't, you won't run on the Redskins. Having Vernon Davis just makes life a heck of a lot easier.

The 49ers did not have a run over 20 yards. They just consistently got bodies to the second level and their backs run really, really hard. Except DeShaun Foster, who runs hard when he feels like it.

Tackle Chart
(Tackles, Successful runs against, YPA)

London Fletcher - 7, 4, 5.3
Chris Horton - 4, 4, 9.8
Rocky McIntosh - 3, 2, 6.3
Demetric Evans - 2, 1, 2.5
DeAngelo Hall - 2, 1, 4.0
HB Blades - 1, 0, 1.0
Carlos Rogers - 1, 0, -1.0
Corneilius Griffin - 1, 0, 3.0
Shawn Springs - 1, 1, 4.0
Marcus Washington - 1, 1, 9.0
LaRon Landry - 1, 1, 9.0

Pass Rush

Alright. Martz offense, so pass protection schemes were usually just 5 or 6 guys. Shaun Hill is a guy that has a quick release and knows coverages well, so that gave the Redskins little chance to get significant pressure on him. When they started to bring blitzes in the third quarter, they were initially successful, because the pass protection schemes of the Niners did not account for the blitzes. Hill was errant on one ball, and sacked on another when he simply held the ball too long.

Martz countered by using his backs in the passing game, and it was game, set, match. No chance to get any significant pressure on the QB when he's throwing to his guys out of the backfield, who are superior receivers to the Redskins linebackers in coverage.

Three guys account for everything in the passing chart. These guys had good games rushing the passer, everyone else did not.

Sacks (1)
Andre Carter

QB Hits (1)
Andre Carter

Pressures (5)
Anthony Montgomery x2
Andre Carter x2
Jason Taylor x1

Deflections (1)
Jason Taylor x1

QB Flushes (3)
Jason Taylor x2
Andre Carter

Overall Defense

We have seen a spike in production since we got away from predictable blitzes in the game-changing plays category. But we've struggled against offenses who are willing to put 5 guys in patterns against us. We're fine against teams like Baltimore, who want to max protect everything and try to throw into tight windows against our lockdown coverage. Inevitably though, if you can spread the Redskins defense out, you'll find some gaping holes in our pass coverage.

For the season, the Redskins have done an outstanding job against opponents' number one receivers, but number twos and running backs have really hurt them. Tight Ends have been more of a factor recently.

Next year, I expect most of the run defense to remain intact. The Redskins have very strong run defenders at the tackle position, which no doubt will help extend the length of London Fletcher's career. They appear to be set at the safety position, especially so if Kareem Moore develops. Rogers and Hall figure to return as a starting duo at corner, but some serious decisions will have to be made on Shawn Springs and Fred Smoot as depth. Springs has too high of a cap number to keep around if he can't stay healthy for 4 months. With regards to Smoot: there's no where on a football field to hide a bad corner. Defenses must be balanced, and offenses will always exploit a weak matchup if they can get it. Therefore, if the front office doesn't think Smoot can be better than he was this year, you have to free up his roster spot for a guy who you don't already know is bad. Even Justin Tryon makes more sense as a No. 3 CB than Smoot at this point, simply because he's an unknown quantity. Hopefully I'm wrong on #27, but he appears to be a lost cause.

All the key decisions will be made at the defensive end and outside linebacker positions next year. Marcus Washington, Jason Taylor, and Phillip Daniels carry the high cap numbers. The defense is clearly in need of some veteran leadership, but not all of those guys are needed. Demetric Evans is a free agent, and he was somewhat exposed in the second half of the year as a weaker end player. Rocky McIntosh may never be the player the Redskins wanted when they traded up to get him in 2006. London Fletcher won't be the surest thing in the NFL forever, he's going to miss a game sometime. Does the FO trust HB Blades at MLB, or should they bring in the eventual replacement for Fletcher in the off-season?

Lots of questions to answer on the defensive side of the ball. On the offensive side, there's just clearly defined problems. On the defensive side: obscure questions. Is this mix the right mix for 2009?

[53Fan]

Good work GTripp! I'm glad to read Marcus is still a presense and I hope he'll somehow be back next year. Hopefully we'll have an improved pass rush in 2009 and Blache will rethink some of his blitzing schemes. I don't understand the reluctance to disguising the blitz or some of the personnel he brings on certain downs. Thanks for your reviews this year, they've been very informative.

[Paintrain]

One of my biggest gripes about Blache's defense is why is the most talented player on defense, your biggest playmaker - Laron Landry - playing 30 yards away from the ball? That's the only scenario that I'd like to see Springs returning is if he's our starting free safety and Landry is more of a rover strong safety in a position to make more of an impact a la Reed and Polomalu.