The myth of the 'hot' coordinator/'hot' college coach

[Paintrain]

As we wait for Fassel to be named, to offset some of the 'why oh why didn't we hire a fresh new coach' foolishness, take a look at the records of the first time head coaches and college coaches since 2004. I'll admit I hijacked some of the stats from an ES thread that had a different topic but supported my point.

Buffalo Bills (2004) - Mike Mularkey (14-18)-No playoffs
Miami Dolphins (2005) - Nick Saban (15-17)-No playoffs
Miami Dolphins (2007) - Cam Cameron (1-15)-No playoffs
New York Jets (2006) - Eric Mangini (14-19)-1 playoff appearance, 0 wins
Cleveland Browns (2005) - Romeo Crennel (20-28)-No playoffs
Pittsburgh Steelers (2007) - Mike Tomlin (10-6)-1 playoff appearance, 0 wins
Houston Texans (2006) - Gary Kubiak (14-18)-No playoffs
Oakland Raiders (2006) - Art Shell (2-14)-No playoffs
Oakland Raiders (2007) - Lane Kiffin (4-12)-No playoffs
Chicago Bears (2004) - Lovie Smith (38-30)-2 playoff appearances, 3 wins
Detroit Lions (2006) - Rod Marinelli (10-22)-No playoffs
Green Bay Packers (2006) - Mike McCarthy (22-12)-2 playoff appearances, 1 win
Minnesota Vikings (2006) - Brad Childress (14-18)-No playoffs
Atlanta Falcons (2004) - Jim Mora Jr (26-22)-1 playoff apearance, 2 wins
Atlanta Falcons (2007) - Bobby Petrino (3-10)-No playoffs
New Orleans Saints (2006) - Sean Payton (17-15)-1 playoff appearance, 2 wins
Arizona Cardinals (2007) - Ken Whisenhunt (8-8)-No playoffs
St. Louis Rams (2006) - Scott Linehan (11-21)-No playoffs
San Francisco 49ers (2005) - Mike Nolan (16-32)-No playoffs

20 coaches, 8 total playoff appearances, 8 playoff wins (1 Super Bowl-'06 Bears)

As I stated in another thread, 9 of the last 11 Super Bowls were won by 'retread' coaches. Other 'retreads' Jon Gruden, Wade Phillips, Tom Coughlin, Norv Turner, Bill Belichek, Mike Holmgren, Tony Dungy and our own Joe Gibbs were 'retreads' or coaches on their 2nd go around all were in the playoffs this year..

The myth that the next best thing is a coordinator or college coach (Spags, Meeks, Schwartz, Carroll) just isn't reflected in the numbers..

[wilsowilso]

This is really telling info. Let's see what this guy can do. Fassel has an excellent resume compared to 95% of the available coaches out there.

[dixonc176]

Very good point. I also might add there is not anyone on that list with the exception of Mike McCarthy or Lovie Smith that I would consider as my head coach if I owned a team

[AlvinWalton'sNeckBrace]

I am beginning to soften towards Fassel...not that I think that he's that great of a prospect...but more because he has kind of a "best of the rest" feel. You're right about first time coaches though. Its a big gamble, and maybe one that Snyder wasn't willing to take with a team on the rise.

[skinsguy]

Some of those coaches have been dudes, but others have turned out to have some good success and right away. Such as Mike Tomlin and Sean Peyton. Romeo Crennel appears to be turning things around in Cleveland as well. Of course we can all agree Lovie Smith and Mike McCarthy are keepers. And for Ken Whisenhunt to get a team like the Arizona Cardinals to .500 is a tremendous feat. Brad Childress appears to be a coach on the rise as well. The problem with this is that the records don't really give much detail to the improvements these guys have brought to their teams. What it does tell is that th majority of the rookie coaches are going to have growing pains their first year. Year two and three usually tell the tale. If there is improvement in year two, and by year three the team is in the post season, then the coach is a keeper.

[davy]

What is Art Shell doing in that list?

[rypper11]

Nice stat PainTrain, but how much do you think it has to do with the team talent as well? Most "retread" coaches go to teams with a level of talent and a "win now" mentality (except for when Joe Gibbs came back). For example, the Dolphins, Falcons and Ravens are a few years from the playoffs and hired a "hot coordinator" to shape their future. As such, Sparano, Smith and Harbough will lose more than they win this year, and probably next. 8-8 would probably be out of reach for BB on any of these teams.
On the other hand, the Seahawks (5 straight years in the playoffs) want a "retread" to continue the level they are at. The same for last year's Chargers and Cowboys. Both wanted a retread to take the next step with.
So, a "young hot coach" will have his struggles with a team. If the fans and owners are impatient he will get fired and win elsewhere (see Belichick, Bill). If they are patient, and it is the right coach, they eventually win (Jeff Fisher didn't post a winning record until his 5th season. Sean Payton's sophomore season was less than a thing of beauty).
The question is, are we looking for a retread to take us to the next level? Or "the young hot name" that will have his struggles but eventually be a great HC? What is our team talent now?

[skinsguy]

Yeah, Art Shell is definitely a retread! Doesn't belong on the list at all.