fantasy projections

[MTK]

I was flipping through a few fantasy mags tonight and I must say I'm impressed with how many Redskins are highly ranked.

Guys like Moss, Portis, Cooley, are all ranked pretty high. Even Randle El and Lloyd had some nice projections but then I came across Mark Brunell.

It seems like the entire fantasy world is down on our boy, MB. I saw two mags that predicted less than 2600 yards for him, and both predicted 15 starts for him. So that's on average 173.33 yards per game for him.

What do you guys think, is MB our weakest link? Will one year make a huge difference in the right or wrong way for Brunell??

I say he's a lock for 3200+ and 24 TDs with the weapons we have now if he plays a full 16 games.

[hooskins]

thats a big if

[SmootSmack]

What sort of numbers did they project for Moss, Cooley, Randle El and Lloyd? Because it wouldn't make sense to predict high numbers for them but then say less than 2600 for Brunell.

Unless they're saying Campbell or Collins will throw for like 600 yards in the one game Brunell won't start.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

I say he's a lock for 3200+ and 24 TDs with the weapons we have now if he plays a full 16 games.

No doubt. I think the one guy who we have that will be overrated by fantasy standards will be Moss. Randle El, Patten, and Lloyd need to get their stats somewhere (well, maybe they wont, but still) and its not going to cut into Cooley's totals at all. Cooley is the second or third option on a lot of his receptions, and you can be sure that Al will have some plays drawn up to get Cooley the ball in the red zone.

Moss is still top 10, but with all the offensive additions, I would pass on him in drafts this year, unless he slips.

[mooby]

I agree with you Matty, if Brunell stays healthy all year long, i have no doubts he will have a good season by fantasy standards. All the same, that's a big if because we all know Brunell isn't injury free anymore.

[MTK]

Originally Posted by TAFKAS

What sort of numbers did they project for Moss, Cooley, Randle El and Lloyd? Because it wouldn't make sense to predict high numbers for them but then say less than 2600 for Brunell.

Unless they're saying Campbell or Collins will throw for like 600 yards in the one game Brunell won't start.

Yeah that's what didn't make sense. They were predicting numbers like 1300 yards from Moss, 800 from Randle El, 600 from Lloyd, and 700 from Cooley. Right there is 3400 yards.

[TheMalcolmConnection]

I think most people are predicting that he will get hurt. The injury he sustained last year wasn't something that was extremely pansy, I mean his knee got hit pretty hard.

[Schneed10]

2600 seems low to me. But I wouldn't go expecting much more than 200 per game (on average) from Brunell. If he starts all 16 games, that'd be 3200 yards. I'll say 3400 if he starts all 16, with 3000 being the realistic projection for injury time (so the sub would throw for 400 yds or so while MB is out).

I don't see Santana Moss duplicating last year's performance. I think he gets 1000-1200 this year because now there are other WRs in the system. ARE, Lloyd and Patten are probably good for 700, 500, 200 (which gets which, I have no idea). Cooley probably gets 700 or so. And the rest gets spread around to Portis, Sellers, and Fauria.

I have all the respect in the world for Al Saunders, but folks, this is a new offense. There will be growing pains. I think we have delusions of grandeur if we think Brunell is going to throw for 4000 yds.

Where the offense is going to pick up steam is in the running game, IMO. Portis will break last year's rushing record. Saunders is going to bring this big play mentality, but I betcha a million dollars that when it comes down to crunch time, Gibbs will make the call to lean on Portis.

[MTK]

I agree Schneed. I can see the offense struggling a bit early on to find it's rhythm, but once they do watch out!

I see big things in store for Portis, and Cooley as well. With all the attention the WRs will face, the underneath stuff should be wide open for Cooley. And with the way Saunders utilizes his TEs, I can definitely see another big season for Cooley. 60+ catches and 10 TDs.

[ArtMonkDrillz]

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

Yeah that's what didn't make sense. They were predicting numbers like 1300 yards from Moss, 800 from Randle El, 600 from Lloyd, and 700 from Cooley. Right there is 3400 yards.

I feel like fantasy mags do this sort of thing a lot. It's like they don't compare positions within a team.

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

Yeah that's what didn't make sense. They were predicting numbers like 1300 yards from Moss, 800 from Randle El, 600 from Lloyd, and 700 from Cooley. Right there is 3400 yards.

Maybe they have Randle El throwing for a few hundred yards on option passes.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

I agree Schneed. I can see the offense struggling a bit early on to find it's rhythm, but once they do watch out!

I see big things in store for Portis, and Cooley as well. With all the attention the WRs will face, the underneath stuff should be wide open for Cooley. And with the way Saunders utilizes his TEs, I can definitely see another big season for Cooley. 60+ catches and 10 TDs.

Yeah I can see Cooley doing the majority of his damage in the red zone, for sure. And you touch on a good point...

Adding these WRs isn't just about getting more production from the WR position. It's about creating more ways to threaten a defense. If ARE and Lloyd don't come in and put up 800-1000 yards each, I'll bet a lot of people will be disappointed and the media will be screaming that we way overpaid. But really, their presence is designed to open up the entire field, more than anything. If they come in and put up 500-600 yards each, but allow Portis and Cooley to do more damage on the ground and on underneath routes & screens, then the new WRs will have fulfilled their expectations.

The best offenses in history have always been able to threaten a defense in multiple ways. An offense of just Moss, Cooley & Portis like we had at the end of last season can do some damage. But it's a lot harder to shut down 5 or 6 threats than it is to shut down 3.

For fantasy football, Mark Brunell should not be a starting QB in a 12-team league, IMO. But in real life, when he's healthy, I can't think of 10 QBs I'd rather have than him. The NFL is about avoiding turnovers, maintaining possession of the ball, and scoring effectively when you have the chance (red zone TD %). Brunell won't take lots of risks to get himself up to 4000 yards, which is exactly what we want. Efficiency is the key, not statistics. And these two new WRs will make Brunell more efficient. That's how you win ballgames.

[scowan]

Hey guys, while we are on the topic of fantasy projections, what would you do with this "Keeper League" situation...... Let's say you could keep either Cooley TE or Anquin Boldin at WR. Knowing you have to start 2 WRs and 1 TE, do I keep Boldin and throw Cooley back, or keep Cooley and shop for WRs. Those of you with magazines what are the projections for Boldin?

[Biff Tannen]

Originally Posted by scowan

Hey guys, while we are on the topic of fantasy projections, what would you do with this "Keeper League" situation...... Let's say you could keep either Cooley TE or Anquin Boldin at WR. Knowing you have to start 2 WRs and 1 TE, do I keep Boldin and throw Cooley back, or keep Cooley and shop for WRs. Those of you with magazines what are the projections for Boldin?

Anybody home?

[dmek25]

schneed, i agree 100%. when it comes down to crunch time, with the game on the line, good ole mr portis is definitley getting the ball. the one difference i could see is portis catching a ton more passes. the few times they threw the ball to him, his hands looked pretty damn good