ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by rbanerjee23

Trent Dilfer actually mentioned on NFL Live not to say that he had a hand in it -- verbatim, "If people know I was involved, they wouldn't respect it"

Interesting. My only concern with the rating is its is verifiability or reliability (not sure which element of the scientific method). IE if another statistician was reviewing the exact same tape could they produce the exact same rating, or at least a rating within a small margin of error. Seems like two or three people could study the same game and come up with two or three different ratings using the same system.

Either way the ratings main problem is how long it takes to compile. I can always see a players QB rating seconds after a play. This new system seems like it'll take a day or two to see how someone did. Of course in the end it is nice to take scrambling, fumbles, and throw aways into account.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag59

Interesting. My only concern with the rating is its is verifiability or reliability (not sure which element of the scientific method). IE if another statistician was reviewing the exact same tape could they produce the exact same rating, or at least a rating within a small margin of error. Seems like two or three people could study the same game and come up with two or three different ratings using the same system.

Either way the ratings main problem is how long it takes to compile. I can always see a players QB rating seconds after a play. This new system seems like it'll take a day or two to see how someone did. Of course in the end it is nice to take scrambling, fumbles, and throw aways into account.

My only problem with the splitting up credit thing has to do with it's in-game purpose. If you're going to drop a players single game TQBR in the middle of a football broadcast, the context for that is going to be nearly impossible to have correct during the broadcast.

The denominator for this stat (EPA) is strong. But an EPA rate stat would be about 1,000 times more simple and more predictive than TQBR. And more than that, it was easily available four years ago on the internet. So if ESPN can't use TQBR as a replacement for passer rating during it's broadcasts, then it has no practical value.

To have value, TQBR must flat replace passer rating during all broadcasts to the point where we, as fans, will look at networks like Fox and CBS and be embarrassed to be fed passer rating during a live broadcast.