The official 2008 draft discussion thread

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Sheriff Gonna Getcha

GTripp,

Do you think we took Thomas because of the hype? Thomas is 6'2", has 4.4 speed, is very strong and agile, has good hands, is tough, and puts up excellent stats in 2007. It sounds like he's unpolished and it might not work out, but that's probably why we passed on him @ 21. We used our #2 pick to draft a boom/bust wideout.

From the information SmootSmack dug up, it sounds like we would have taken him at 21, had we not got the trade.

I do think we took Thomas because of the hype. Most of our draft week focus centered around Malcolm Kelly. I know we had met with Thomas, but we clearly weren't expecting him to be there, and took him because he was the most hyped player there.

That's not always a bad strategy. The Raiders would have been wise to snag Glenn Dorsey before he fell to the Chiefs, but they were locked into McFadden.

However, the statistical probability on Devin Thomas based on what he did in college (potential fluke year, left early), the chances he's just totally overmatched in the NFL is probably close to 50%. Of course that gives him a 50% chance of being average or better, so it is a glass half empty, half full kind of thing. I just feel that the 34th overall pick should be 80% or better to succeed.

I don't see Thomas as a boom or bust. I see him as a mediocre-or-bust type guy. His upside looks something like Eddie Kennison's career. His downside, something like Bobby Wade.

For us, a league average receiver who is 6'3" and fast isn't all that bad of a selection, but we certainly could have done better, and that's going to eat at me for awhile.

Sorry if I let my frustration with the pick influence my assessment of the player. He is a terrible selection though. Hopefully, he can beat the odds and become a starter for us in Washington. We really need it.

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

From the information SmootSmack dug up, it sounds like we would have taken him at 21, had we not got the trade.

I do think we took Thomas because of the hype. Most of our draft week focus centered around Malcolm Kelly. I know we had met with Thomas, but we clearly weren't expecting him to be there, and took him because he was the most hyped player there.

That's not always a bad strategy. The Raiders would have been wise to snag Glenn Dorsey before he fell to the Chiefs, but they were locked into McFadden.

However, the statistical probability on Devin Thomas based on what he did in college (potential fluke year, left early), the chances he's just totally overmatched in the NFL is probably close to 50%. Of course that gives him a 50% chance of being average or better, so it is a glass half empty, half full kind of thing. I just feel that the 34th overall pick should be 80% or better to succeed.

I don't see Thomas as a boom or bust. I see him as a mediocre-or-bust type guy. His upside looks something like Eddie Kennison's career. His downside, something like Bobby Wade.

For us, a league average receiver who is 6'3" and fast isn't all that bad of a selection, but we certainly could have done better, and that's going to eat at me for awhile.

Sorry if I let my frustration with the pick influence my assessment of the player. He is a terrible selection though. Hopefully, he can beat the odds and become a starter for us in Washington. We really need it.

Well I was getting a lot of info at once, so it's not entirely accurate to say they were going to take Thomas at #21. Thomas was their top guy on the board once the Bills and Eagles passed but taking him at 21 was really a last resort. Who was to know he'd even be an option though.

I don't know where you're getting your statistical probabilities from.