Are we running out of oil?

[BaltimoreSkins]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

As Monty Python would say -


This isn't a climate change thread, or a political thread at all really. Just a real good article on oil supply and the oil age.

Are we running out of oil?
I remember growing up in the 70's and 80's with lots of doom and gloom around the world running out of oil. This Penn State article does a nice job walking through those predictions, and then summing up where we are at.

I thought it was a good read, hope you guys do too.

Part of that doom and gloom was due to energy crisis in 70s and early 80s. As well as the decline of peak oil in the US fields. I teach environmental science so I have to read reserach journals on everything in the environmental, human health and engineering fields as well as the soft sciences such as economics and law. One thing to note is when people say we will run out of a particular reserve it is based on current technology, economic ability and current growth in consumption. When we here oil reserves will be depleted between 40-60 years etc it is based on fixed data. In the 70s and 80s we knew we would be doing horizontal drilling at some point in the future and that would significantly open up places like the Bakken in North Dakota and Montana, but they were not considered part of our reserves.

I won't get into my personal opinions about internalizing environmental and human health costs in oil consumption and keep the discussion on reserves.

Two things that I am interested in with regards to climate change and oil reserves: As the Greenland ice sheet melts it will open up huge reserves that are currently undiscovered or economically unviable. I have read that Greenland is interested in pursuing these reserves and ask for independnce from Denmark. In Antarctica we have the the Antarctic Treaty that prohibits resource and militray activity on the continent. However I have a hard time believing that if vast amounts of oil there become reserves that a country won't exploit that treaty. My guess is Argentina.