Redskins trade for Alex Smith

[SkinzWin]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

There's not as much of an opportunity to be in situations where a comeback is needed to win when you play with a dominant defense. This stat is meaningless.

Originally Posted by BaltimoreSkins

I guess that was my point to the 4th quarter meaningless stats posted, anyone can pick and choose stats to fit their narrative.

Ask Tom Brady if 4th quarter comebacks are a meaningless stat. He does it all the time and is one of the greatest ever, with multiple championships to prove it. I don't understand how the stat is meaningless. If you can't perform in crunch time, then you aren't going to go far.

And I specifically chose those three stats because I feel like they are the most critical. Cousins is better with overall yardage and TDs, but to me they are less important than what you do in the red zone, the 4th quarter, and when you are playing from behind.

[BaltimoreSkins]

Originally Posted by SkinzWin

Ask Tom Brady if 4th quarter comebacks are a meaningless stat. He does it all the time and is one of the greatest ever, with multiple championships to prove it. I don't understand how the stat is meaningless. If you can't perform in crunch time, then you aren't going to go far.

And I specifically chose those three stats because I feel like they are the most critical. Cousins is better with overall yardage and TDs, but to me they are less important than what you do in the red zone, the 4th quarter, and when you are playing from behind.

Then why did you ignore the number of come from behind wins in the 4th quarter during the same period? KC has more than AS, but to piggy back on what Schneed was alluding to, AS had less opportunities for 4th quarter comebacks because of a better defense that holds leads and a team with a better recent track record over all. KC would have to run frequent come from behind drives in the 4th when the defense would know he was throwing in the 4th quarter. Don't you think that skews stats? A more conservative offense will have less opportunities for QB turnovers and high completion percentage passes.

[SkinzWin]

Originally Posted by BaltimoreSkins

Then why did you ignore the number of come from behind wins in the 4th quarter during the same period? KC has more than AS, but to piggy back on what Schneed was alluding to, AS had less opportunities for 4th quarter comebacks because of a better defense that holds leads and a team with a better recent track record over all. KC would have to run frequent come from behind drives in the 4th when the defense would know he was throwing in the 4th quarter. Don't you think that skews stats? A more conservative offense will have less opportunities for QB turnovers and high completion percentage passes.

I understand your point, but I would argue that the volume of come back’s does not matter when looking at a QB. How you perform as a QB when you do need to come back is what matters. If you only have three opportunities as a QB to come back you should put up good stats. If you have 20 opportunities you should still put up a good stats as a good QB. Example Tom Brady. The quarterback can’t control how good or bad his defense is. But if he’s a good enough quarterback he should put up good stats when they need to come back.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by SkinzWin

I understand your point, but I would argue that the volume of come back’s does not matter when looking at a QB. How you perform as a QB when you do need to come back is what matters. If you only have three opportunities as a QB to come back you should put up good stats. If you have 20 opportunities you should still put up a good stats as a good QB. Example Tom Brady. The quarterback can’t control how good or bad his defense is. But if he’s a good enough quarterback he should put up good stats when they need to come back.

The comparison between Cousins and Smith is meaningless. I didn't say that come from behind victories are a meaningless statistic completely.

What you really want to measure, if you're trying to figure this out, is the number of times a QB led a drive that resulted in a go-ahead score, in the 4th quarter or overtime. And take that number and divide by the number of drives where the QB started it in the 4th quarter or later in a down-by-one-score situation.

What you can't do is say Kirk has 7, Alex has 5, so Kirk must be better at it. It makes no sense. Alex may have done it 45% of the time he had the opportunity to, and Cousins may have done it 33% of the time. It depends upon opportunities.

I'm in data analytics for a living. If you want to measure this, you want a rate statistic, not a counting statistic.