Originally Posted by jdlea
We don't really disagree, but for the sake of argument, let's talk about the 4%. I don't think it's totally unreasonable to say a kicker will have 25-50 attempts per season. That's 1 or 2 more misses in a season, that's not an incredible amount, BUT what if they're big kicks? What if they're game winners? It's also the difference between being the 16/17th best kicker in the league vs. the 25th. I was trying to help Janikowski out because they trot him out for some ridiculous kicks.
Just because Janikowski can reach a 50 yarder, doesn't mean much, he only hit slightly above 50%, Suisham was 50%. I'm not saying that their leg strength is anywere near comparable, but I'm saying that a 50 yard field goal is probably 50/50 anyway. I don't think signing a guy just because he can get it there and sacrificing accuracy is worth while.
Also, the reason I removed the 50 yarders is because they were the majority of Janikowski's misses. He was 6/11 last season from 50+. I thought that would bring his 71% FG PCT up a bit, but it didn't make it that much better.
The one thing we do disagree on is that FG% isn't that big of a factor. I want the kicker to make as many FG's as possible, just because he has a big leg, doesn't mean he'll make more and I just don't see kicking into the end zone to be that important. The difference between the 20 and 25 isn't that big of a deal, it's not even that different from 20 to 30. The kick coverage and defense have to do their job. I will say, however, that there is a pretty big difference when it's the 35 or 40.
Now, I will say that having a 50 yarder be out of the question for a kicker is a little ridiculous, but I'm not a huge proponent of trotting a guy out there for a 50 yarder. First of all, the greatest kicker in Redskins history (or at least the only one who made the 70 Greatest list) is probably Mark Moseley. For his career he made 12 of 42 from 50+ yards. Last year, in the NFL, 99 FG's of 50+ yards were attempted and NFL kickers made 47 of them that's 47.4%. Therefore, you have about a 50/50 shot (unless you have Kris Brown 5-5 from 50+...ridiculous) of gaining 3 points or putting your opponent on their own 40+ yard line.
I'm almost of the opinion that a 50 yard field goal is too risky of a play, if it doesn't pay off, you're almost screwed.
|