A New Look Offense or the Same but Better?

[Monkeydad]

Originally Posted by HailGreen28

To my untrained eye, Kyle's offense changed to more rollouts/bootlegs when Beck briefly replaced Grossman last season. Looking forward to seeing a much more wide-open offense with RG3.

That's because Beck could actually run well. Rex was the master of the "step into a defender for a sack fumble".

I expect the offense to adapt to RGIII's mobility. They'd be stupid not to tailor the playbook to his talents.

[GTripp0012]

The baseline on these DVOA stats is against both runs and passes. So first round run calls are being compared to all first and ten plays leaguewide. Etc. These are the Redskins rates and ranks from the 2011 season.

The Redskins are still pretty dreadful on third downs, but the third down conversion percentage improved from 2010 because they were a lot better on first down this year, so they weren't in quite as many third and longs (and in third down less often altogether).

1st down pass
36.5% (7th)

1st down run
-2.2% (20th)

All first downs
13.6% (10th)

2nd down pass
-8.6% (25th)

2nd down run
-10.0% (30th)

All 2nd down
-11.6% (28th)

3rd/4th passes
-23.6% (27th)

3rd/4th runs
53.2% (4th)

All 3rd/4th down
-18.9% (26th)

All downs (passing)
3.5% (22nd)

All downs (rushing)
-0.5% (17th)

All Downs
-2.1% (19th)

[30gut]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

The baseline on these DVOA stats is against both runs and passes. So first round run calls are being compared to all first and ten plays leaguewide. Etc. These are the Redskins rates and ranks from the 2011 season.

Thanks G, very interesting.

What is the percentage in the figures?
Is it the percentage chance of converting for a 1st down?

Can you post or link the complete data set?

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by 30gut

Thanks G, very interesting.

What is the percentage in the figures?
Is it the percentage chance of converting for a 1st down?

Can you post or link the complete data set?

The percentage is simply this:

Outcome value of the play/baseline

A 30% play was 30 percent more valuable than the expectation for the down and distance.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

The percentage is simply this:

Outcome value of the play/baseline

A 30% play was 30 percent more valuable than the expectation for the down and distance.

Thanks,
Do you have the 1st down stats for the Texans?
I wonder how we compare to a good running team.

Personally I don't think Kyle is gonna make significant or meaningful changes.
I think the offense we saw last year is gonna be the offense we see this year.
But, I'm filled with hope and eagerness to be proved utterly wrong.
Because if they harnessed the talent of Griffin and really altered the offense around his skillset he could have a huge impact.
But, at the end of the day I think Robert Griffin is a 'coach proof' talent.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by 30gut

Thanks,
Do you have the 1st down stats for the Texans?
I wonder how we compare to a good running team.

Personally I don't think Kyle is gonna make significant or meaningful changes.
I think the offense we saw last year is gonna be the offense we see this year.
But, I'm filled with hope and eagerness to be proved utterly wrong.
Because if they harnessed the talent of Griffin and really altered the offense around his skillset he could have a huge impact.
But, at the end of the day I think Robert Griffin is a 'coach proof' talent.

For the 2011 Texans:

1st down passing
59.2% (3rd)

1st down rushing
-0.6% (16th)

All 1st downs
20.3% (5th)

2nd down passing
8.2% (17th)

2nd down rushing
9.3% (10th)

All 2nd downs
4.9% (16th)

3rd/4th down passing
7.5% (15th)

3rd/4th down rushing
30.3% (8th)

All 3rd/4th downs
13.2% (12th)

All passing
27.3% (9th)

All rushing
7.9% (10th)

All offense
13.3% (9th)

If you look at the trends, the Texans are really similar to us (I suppose thats not the most surprising thing). They're a lot better on offense, sure, but the down/distance splits break down almost exactly identical.

[InsaneBoost]

Better:

In all honesty, I feel our offense was good enough last year. Not saying it was elite or anything along that line, but good enough to compete with "the best" (which they still did, damn Giants). The problem naturally, was QB, and that's what it's going to boil down to this year.

Defenses stacked the box to force the ball into Rex Grossmans hands for the simple fact he didn't scare anyone. Granted he did get some wins, but 9/10 times it's going to work for you.

If Robert Griffin III can come out and shine and cause defenses to respect us, then were finally going to see this offense come together, we'll be able to mix things up a lot better and hurt defenses both in the air and on the ground.

So I guess in a sense, it all boils down to RGIII. Not saying we can't use better players at certain positions and add better depth, but the main reason we failed last year was because nobody feared Grossman.

[MTK]

I think we'll see RG3 rolling out a ton. Play-action off the stretch zone will be deadly.

[REDSKINS4ever]

Originally Posted by Mattyk

I think we'll see RG3 rolling out a ton. Play-action off the stretch zone will be deadly.

Those types of plays will work effectively in the short passing game. Expect a lot of high percentage completions to the fullback in the flat, the tight end in the middle of the field, or the half back in the flat.

[Monkeydad]

Originally Posted by REDSKINS4ever

Those types of plays will work effectively in the short passing game. Expect a lot of high percentage completions to the fullback in the flat, the tight end in the middle of the field, or the half back in the flat.

Bubble screen!

(Anyone who heard the commentary during the OK State game will understand...)

[REDSKINS4ever]

Originally Posted by Monkeydad

Bubble screen!

(Anyone who heard the commentary during the OK State game will understand...)

The Baylor Bears ran that particular play a lot last season. If Kyle Shanahan incorporates that play into the Redskins passing game, I wouldn't be at all surprised.

[CultBrennan59]

Originally Posted by REDSKINS4ever

The Baylor Bears ran that particular play a lot last season. If Kyle Shanahan incorporates that play into the Redskins passing game, I wouldn't be at all surprised.

Garcon is deadly at 4 routes. Screens, slants, drags, and go/9 routes. I would be shocked as well if KS didn't have Griffin throwing bubble screens this year.

[los panda]

show me some shades of the 1998 vikings offense

[Monkeydad]

Originally Posted by los panda

show me some shades of the 1998 vikings offense

Why not the 1991 Redskins?

[los panda]

Originally Posted by Monkeydad

Why not the 1991 Redskins?

fast/slender qb with an accurate/rocket arm (the arm sleeve tops it off) is why 1998 vikings offense. setting the record for points scored would be the cherry on top.

wouldn't mind some shades of the 1991 redskins offense, either