All things Middle East related

[over the mountain]

really good conversation guys. I agree with most.

I agree w Joe that we cannot expect Iran to think and make decisions in the same manner we think and make decisions. I read a good article which had a quote that China's diplomatic approach to us is that everything we do is reasonable and rational. Most "reasonable and rational" people have a bend but dont break approach to disagreement. china knows that we wont do anything rash or in haste and uses this to their advantage. basically we are very predictable.

i agree w that guy in that Iran is not full of death to america thinking people. i have never been there but ive had a few friends from iran. they are a very young population and like most young people, they want to be in touch with the world. the avg age is 27.1 years old. with that said, i dont think they necessarily want Mcdonalds at every corner. i view Iran as a very proud and historically a very influential culture. i think there is a power struggle to an extent of wanting to respect the ayatollah while wanting to be modern and connected to the world.

iran and saudi arabia are the 2 power groups and i respect iran a lot more than saudi arabia. the 9/11 guys were from saudi arabia. SA has a small population, shitty army and has shown its true colors by publicly flirting with russia in retaliation for us negotiating with iran.

fuck SA. (sorry to bring the intelligent discussion down)

i apologize if i misrepresented what anyone's points were.

-------------------------------------

big picture for me = we need to respect regional powers to have some sway over their regions - china, russia, iran, EU - all should be able to exert some control over their regions. we just need to keep our military modern and ahead of anyone else bc we are they Super Power.

[CRedskinsRule]

I agree that Iran is not going to just one day turn around and nuke us. That said, all global wars start locally. And there are a LOT of local tensions building up in 3 distinct areas, China/south sea, Russian western border, and specific to here the Saudi Iranian tension. And because in Russia and Iran specifically there is the government sanctioned propaganda that demonizes the US, its not hard to imagine scenarios where a client state or entity misinterprets or actively pushes upper limits of the major regional powers into irrational actions.

When, for example, Iran takes billions of dollars from the release of sanctions money and feeds it to non state organizations that seek the destabilization or destruction of Israel, and that entity decides attacking us interests is a means to that end. Would Iran acknowledge and take appropriate actions or would we have to respond.

I know that is a hypothetical but my point is that in regional conflicts tensions and missteps are far more likely than on a global scale. And Iran having an influx of money, power and status reminds me a lot of Chamberlains thinking that by appeasing a state that has intents on regional domination you create an environment for peace.

I think you just foster a more dangerous world.

Sent from my S6 Edge

[Hog1]

Originally Posted by That Guy

read the speech from today, it addresses these things. we've got international backing from a lot of nations for these sanctions specifically to halt advancement on nuclear weapons. if we back out, those sanctions fall apart and it makes it harder to get people to agree the next time we want to push something else (whether iran related or not) because they'll be less trusting of our ability to keep our commitments.

also, the inspection window is 24 hours to 24 days, no country is going to allow unlimited zero notice inspections.

also the gulf states military budgets FAR exceed iran's.

it's all been addressed pretty much point by point.

Ill check it out

[Hog1]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

I agree that Iran is not going to just one day turn around and nuke us. That said, all global wars start locally. And there are a LOT of local tensions building up in 3 distinct areas, China/south sea, Russian western border, and specific to here the Saudi Iranian tension. And because in Russia and Iran specifically there is the government sanctioned propaganda that demonizes the US, its not hard to imagine scenarios where a client state or entity misinterprets or actively pushes upper limits of the major regional powers into irrational actions.

When, for example, Iran takes billions of dollars from the release of sanctions money and feeds it to non state organizations that seek the destabilization or destruction of Israel, and that entity decides attacking us interests is a means to that end. Would Iran acknowledge and take appropriate actions or would we have to respond.

I know that is a hypothetical but my point is that in regional conflicts tensions and missteps are far more likely than on a global scale. And Iran having an influx of money, power and status reminds me a lot of Chamberlains thinking that by appeasing a state that has intents on regional domination you create an environment for peace.

I think you just foster a more dangerous world.

Sent from my S6 Edge

As you are pointing out, it is a ridiculous thought to imagine Iran would curtail rather than expand it's vast terror agenda with the flood of NEW "sanction" money......

[That Guy]

Originally Posted by Hog1

As you are pointing out, it is a ridiculous thought to imagine Iran would curtail rather than expand it's vast terror agenda with the flood of NEW "sanction" money......

also covered:
Full text: Obama gives a speech about the Iran nuclear deal - The Washington Post


a lot of the money would be going towards infrastructure and social programs where they have shortfalls now, but there's no doubt some of it would end up with the military or going towards groups we'd rather it not go to. but you've got to take care of the first order problems first.

the general jist is we're not naive, this doesn't solve every problem, don't trust - verify, we're not taking other options off the table if this doesn't work, but we've got to at least try.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by That Guy

also covered:
Full text: Obama gives a speech about the Iran nuclear deal - The Washington Post


a lot of the money would be going towards infrastructure and social programs where they have shortfalls now, but there's no doubt some of it would end up with the military or going towards groups we'd rather it not go to. but you've got to take care of the first order problems first.

the general jist is we're not naive, this doesn't solve every problem, don't trust - verify, we're not taking other options off the table if this doesn't work, but we've got to at least try.

I think Pres. Obama's foreign policy throughout his tenure has been naive. There is no reason to believe that under this agreement Iran's actions regarding there nuclear intentions will change. And their spending while sanctions have been in place shows where their priorities are, and it isn't social infrastructure. Sure they will spend a portion for of the released money on it+ but they also will have easier access and ability to fund organizations that intend to do harm to the Iraq, Saudi and Israeli states.

My concern is that this open the region to a very dangerous non nuclear arms race. And that will be very bad.

Sent from my S6 Edge

[Chico23231]

I think the nuclear deal with Iran is not tough enough...but there is some good things in there. Folks tend forget past deals with Iran, and that frankly is quite stupid. Would u continue to do business with an entity that continues not to follow thru or flat out work against you? Folks this isn't rocket science, these guys r our enemy. Miseducation of our voting public is disturbing.

Oh and chuck schumer is coming out against the deal. Is that big? Let's just say is massive. Black eye for Kerry and Obama

[JoeRedskin]

Originally Posted by Chico23231

I think the nuclear deal with Iran is not tough enough...but there is some good things in there. Folks tend forget past deals with Iran, and that frankly is quite stupid. Would u continue to do business with a business or entity that continues not to follow thru or flat out work against you? Folks this isn't rocket science, these guys r our enemy. Miseducation of our voting public is disturbing.

Oh and chuck schumer is coming out against the deal. Is that big? Let's just say is massive. Black eye for Kerry and Obama

Winner, Winner, Chicken Dinner.

You can parse it any which way you like, but the bolded statement is the bottom line.

[Giantone]

Originally Posted by JoeRedskin

Winner, Winner, Chicken Dinner.

You can parse it any which way you like, but the bolded statement is the bottom line.

With out a doubt I agree with the highlight statment but there are some good things , very good things in this agreement,when do you take a chance?

[Hog1]

Originally Posted by That Guy

read the speech from today, it addresses these things. we've got international backing from a lot of nations for these sanctions specifically to halt advancement on nuclear weapons. if we back out, those sanctions fall apart and it makes it harder to get people to agree the next time we want to push something else (whether iran related or not) because they'll be less trusting of our ability to keep our commitments.
ives
also, the inspection window is 24 hours to 24 days, no country is going to allow unlimited zero notice inspections.

also the gulf states military budgets FAR exceed iran's.

it's all been addressed pretty much point by point.

That does not appear to be the case as any party in the agreement can open a dispute at their discretion.
Maybe Obama forgot that in his speech?
It appears to give great latitude (and potentially months of "dispute process") to resolve. Not enough teeth and way to much BS to allow the PL Iranians to hide behind.

Negotiating with terrorists.....be damned, WTF are we doing letting this deal go down with 4 American hostages in Iranian prisons?
We should not have agreed to these terms. Perhaps we would have fared better if the Israeli's had negotiated our end.
This country is our enemy and as made no attempt to hide it. They have stated daily...hourly they will only rest when Israel, the West and specifically the U.S.A. have been wiped off the earth.
We treated it like a meeting at Ford motor with the UAW
WTF are we doing allowing any country to gain control of the assets that will be released to these maniacs to be subsequently...........used on us?

[That Guy]

Originally Posted by Hog1

That does not appear to be the case as any party in the agreement can open a dispute at their discretion.
Maybe Obama forgot that in his speech?
It appears to give great latitude (and potentially months of "dispute process") to resolve. Not enough teeth and way to much BS to allow the PL Iranians to hide behind.

Negotiating with terrorists.....be damned, WTF are we doing letting this deal go down with 4 American hostages in Iranian prisons?
We should not have agreed to these terms. Perhaps we would have fared better if the Israeli's had negotiated our end.
This country is our enemy and as made no attempt to hide it. They have stated daily...hourly they will only rest when Israel, the West and specifically the U.S.A. have been wiped off the earth.
We treated it like a meeting at Ford motor with the UAW
WTF are we doing allowing any country to gain control of the assets that will be released to these maniacs to be subsequently...........used on us?

great, when do you propose we start dropping nukes?

also, again, if we don't follow through, the sanctions fall apart and china and russia can start doing business as usual with them.

Russia was our enemy when the salt treaties etc were signed, somehow we managed to make it work and now no one is worried or practicing hiding under their desk to protect themselves from russian nukes. the solution that our enemies are our enemies and can never be anything besides our enemies is circular and self-fulfilling. If things don't work out they don't work out, but if you never try, you're guaranteeing a result you don't like.

[Chico23231]

Originally Posted by That Guy

great, when do you propose we start dropping nukes?

also, again, if we don't follow through, the sanctions fall apart and china and russia can start doing business as usual with them.

Russia was our enemy when the salt treaties etc were signed, somehow we managed to make it work and now no one is worried or practicing hiding under their desk to protect themselves from russian nukes. the solution that our enemies are our enemies and can never be anything besides our enemies is circular and self-fulfilling. If things don't work out they don't work out, but if you never try, you're guaranteeing a result you don't like.

How many times has Iran backout and straight up not followed through with past deals?

And why does the media and this administration feel that if a deal wasn't reached that we had some how failed? If negiotiations failed, the pressure and stress was clearly on Iran and its economy. U don't make a deal to make a deal to check a box off in your presidency. This dumb shit president is really amazing. Take a look around the world...things are so effed up it ridiculous. There is absolutely no defense of his incompetence and his administration in foreign affairs. Kerry did a poor job and gave into to the Iranians losing several key points within the last days of the negiotiations.

Drop nukes, that typical response from the left when u got nothing.

[That Guy]

Originally Posted by Chico23231

How many times has Iran backout and straight up not followed through with past deals?

And why does the media and this administration feel that if a deal wasn't reached that we had some how failed? If negiotiations failed, the pressure and stress was clearly on Iran and its economy. U don't make a deal to make a deal to check a box off in your presidency. This dumb shit president is really amazing. Take a look around the world...things are so effed up it ridiculous. There is absolutely no defense of his incompetence and his administration in foreign affairs. Kerry did a poor job and gave into to the Iranians losing several key points within the last days of the negiotiations.

Drop nukes, that typical response from the left when u got nothing.

what would you do then? blind rage with no answers, typical trolling. when exactly was our last deal with iran that they backed out of? cause i sure can't remember it.

[Chico23231]

Iran has broken and backed out of multiple deals with us and allies abroad multiple times on multiple things; human rights, nuclear, weapons etc. To think Iran will abide by this deal is very naive.

I wouldn't accept this deal and I would continue to neigotiate and keep the sanctions in place until we get what we want. A complete dismantling of their nuclear weapon program. Period. These dropping oil prices are helping our cause

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by Chico23231

Iran has broken and backed out of multiple deals with us and allies abroad multiple times on multiple things; human rights, nuclear, weapons etc. To think Iran will abide by this deal is very naive.

I wouldn't accept this deal and I would continue to neigotiate and keep the sanctions in place until we get what we want. A complete dismantling of their nuclear weapon program. Period. These dropping oil prices are helping our cause

Continue negotiations, keep sanctions in place. Are you nuts? The only other option was to drop nukes, that's what we were told.

This treaty, IMO, is simply Pres Obama's misguided attempt at etching his Nobel prize winning legacy. That it could just as easily destabilize an entire region is a small risk for that ultimate goal.

Sent from my S6 Edge