The Obama Years- A GOP love story

[CRedskinsRule]

G1 you are a perfect example of what some would call a flock of sheeple. Yes lots of what I reference has been going on the past 30 it so years. That's why I said it was not a political jab at Pres Obama. I was trying to emphasize the march of world culture, that there are political tides with undercurrents that are hundreds of years strong, and when you transition from one strong unchallenged state (the US in this case) to a hegamony of near equal competing states you either find balance and understanding of the conflicting powers ie 1960s to 90s between the USSR and USA, or you find a multitude of powers where an inadvertent action can lead to great calamities, ie the world leading to WWI. I think we are very close to the WWI model right now when you throw the following players together:
China, Russia, Japan, Iran, the. US, and the EU, and a Muslim substate that exists in multiple facets throughout the middle east. You take powder keg zones like Israel /Syria/Gaza, NK/SK, and the Urals around Ukraine, and we either find a new balance or one of the powder kegs goes off.

My point in referencing our President is mainly that he fits in the mold of Woodrow Wilson or Neville Chamberlain in that regard. His ideals are valid but they may lead us right where he desparately wants to avoid.

[Giantone]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

G1 you are a perfect example of what some would call a flock of sheeple. Yes lots of what I reference has been going on the past 30 it so years. .

LOL, I have heard that before and it is always the saying of the young .I'm almost 12 years older than you .I understand what it is you are getting at I just want to tell you that as time goes on and like it or not it happens to everyone you views do change .Just a note the things I pointed out as you said going on for 30 years, well it's more like 50 or 60 .

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by Giantone

LOL, I have heard that before and it is always the saying of the young .I'm almost 12 years older than you .I understand what it is you are getting at I just want to tell you that as time goes on and like it or not it happens to everyone you views do change .Just a note the things I pointed out as you said going on for 30 years, well it's more like 50 or 60 .

It's actually more like all of human history. You don't really get the point if you think that we aren't at an epochal moment in history. We have gone from a bipolar power center in the world to a momentary unipolar one, and what we are seeing now is the emergence of a multipolar world structure, one that our government initiated somewhere during the 2nd Iraq war. Historians will look back better than we do now, and be able to define the point at which US power shifted.

I had to laugh loudly at the "almost 12 years older" comment. I'm not 9 and you 21 or some distinctive note like that. Being 47, with my fair share of world travel, college and military training, and life events, I am pretty confident that my view won't undergo drastic revisions in the next 10 years. Maybe yours will, and I seriously hope so from most of your off-topic discussions, but I feel confident that you will hold on to your sheeplistic attitude and continue to defend that which is by common sense indefensible, argue that the status quo is simply acceptable because it's been the status quo, and so on. Feel free to have the last word if you choose, because I won't continue this engagement with you.

[tshile]

Originally Posted by Giantone

I still don't think they lied ,one hand does'nt know what the other has said or done a total FU but I don't believe they are lying .

On #5) I agree with you but again this has been going on for years and nobody from either party has or will do a damn thing about it .

Well, we have quite a bit of proof that they at least lied to the american people for a few weeks, presumably to avoid what may have been significant bad PR on the foreign policy front for a president running for re-election at the time.

I have a hard time using your excuse for #5 because there are a lot of problems like that and I don't think "well no one else has fixed it either" is a very good excuse. I think majority of the problems (real problems) we face in this country are decades old and still exist because no one has taken the time to actually fix them, and because the general public refuses to hold anyone accountable outside of crafting nicely-worded talking points when it's the other team's guy in office.

To name a few: multiple different infrastructure issues, education issues, poverty, immigration, and any real progress on race issues since the 60's.

[tshile]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

I think we are very close to the WWI model right now when you throw the following players together:
China, Russia, Japan, Iran, the. US, and the EU, and a Muslim substate that exists in multiple facets throughout the middle east.

The problem with that point of view is it ignores the significant progress made in relations between us and China in terms of trade and cooperativeness. There are many that view China as a communist-in-name-only country that's on the verge of officially moving into a more democratic state. The idea that we're constantly on the brink of war with China is one that seems to be about a decade or two out of date.

The middle east is an interesting and complex issue to say the least.

[Chico23231]

its crystal clear to everyone that obama's foreign policy has made this world alot more dangerous place. The instability in the world is directly related to Obama and his staff's policy.


FACT

You cant dispute it.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by tshile

The problem with that point of view is it ignores the significant progress made in relations between us and China in terms of trade and cooperativeness. There are many that view China as a communist-in-name-only country that's on the verge of officially moving into a more democratic state. The idea that we're constantly on the brink of war with China is one that seems to be about a decade or two out of date.

The middle east is an interesting and complex issue to say the least.

Ok, But you do know the following have all taken place in the last 9 months:
1) Major China/Russia troop maneuvers
China, Russia start joint naval exercise | South China Morning Post

2) Chinese exertion of territorial rights over disputed territories with Japan
China's New Air-Defense Zone Is a Creeping Effort to Assert Sovereignty | TIME.com

3) Chinese fighter jets entering Taiwan air space:
China Fighter Jets Enter Taiwan's Airspace - Businessweek

4) China Russia oil pipeline agreement
Russia, China Sign $400 Billion Gas Deal After Decade of Talks - Bloomberg

5) Brazil, Russia, India and China have formed an alliance a la IMF
BRICS Bank Viewed as IMF Competitor

Again, the point being that we moved from the dual power of USSR/USA, which hung ever on an edge but had two main actors, neither were ultimately willing to go that last step, to the Sole power of the USA, but the US is not set up to go it alone as a sole world power, so we have relinquished a lot of the authority/responsibility we shouldered from the late 80's to the mid 2000's. Now the world is moving back to a set of tentative alliances, as you say China likes our money, but might like Russia's oil more. Russia might feel emboldened by China's backing and feel like the two of them together could put Europe on it's heels. There are a lot more uncertainties in a multipolar world, and a lot more chance for miscalculation, which sort of brings me back to my rant and what set it off. When the head of the US is repeatedly saying publicly, we didn't know, or we sent our forces in, but the intelligence was bad, or it was due to xyz failure, it opens the door to opponents thinking that they might slip one by, or make a miscue. If you remember, the start of the first Iraq war - the invasion of Kuwait, has been ascribed to the US seemingly give an offhand approval of the absorption of Kuwait. With one power, you just squash it and go on, like Iraq 1, but in a multi polar world, where Russia and Iran for instance might together not like the idea of a US led invasion of Iraq, the lines become blurrier.

Like I said at the outset, this is my rant. I get that I see things through a certain prism, and I'm not suggesting, as maybe G1 thought I was, that I could do a single bit better, only that it is distressing/discouraging to see us muddle into this new phase, and look cloddish doing it. I like the life the US presents not just me, but my kids, and one day, I hope my grandkids. and to that end I see us on the brink of a turning point, which may very well not have the joyful ending that some seem to imply is an obvious conclusion.

[tshile]

Yeah I get it, and I respect your rant and opinion

I don't think China is trying to make enemies with Russia... but if forced to pick between the USA and Russia, I think China is going to pick the USA. And I don't think it'll be close. I think in 10 years people will look at China in a much different way than they do now. And they'll probably still be a decade behind

[CRedskinsRule]

The question isn't really whether China "picks" Russia or US, it's at what point do they think they can bully the smaller nations around them enough to get what they want, and in that bullying, do they miscalculate the response of their neighbors, which triggers a rise that becomes self fulfilling. We see that right now, with Russia and Ukraine, Russia clearly is living in a realpolitik frame, and the question is do they miscalculate. Going further, and this is like an ant telling an aardvark it better be ready for a fight, but Canada of all countries proclaimed that "[they are] ready for confrontation with #Russia if the country expands its ambitions in the #Arctic region." Who do you think Canada would rely on to back them up? (http://rt.com/news/182992-canada-sov...arctic-russia/) Or when Poland sends aid to the Ukrainian Army, who underwrites the ties?

Or when the Japanese mull building a new era fighter jet, Japan mulls building its own fighter jets - Channel NewsAsia, do you think they will fail to protect their interests if China miscalculates? and do you think the US would disown Japanese protection if it got down and dirty fast?

Simply pointing out that compare pre-WWI world, with the current criss cross of political alliances, public and secret, and it's pretty crazy. And if the US leaders think like Wilson, Chamberlain, Carter, I think the US could be in for a rude surprise.

[Giantone]

Originally Posted by tshile

Yeah I get it, and I respect your rant and opinion

)

As do I ,I just don't agree with all of it .

[JoeRedskin]

Originally Posted by tshile

The problem with that point of view is it ignores the significant progress made in relations between us and China in terms of trade and cooperativeness. There are many that view China as a communist-in-name-only country that's on the verge of officially moving into a more democratic state. The idea that we're constantly on the brink of war with China is one that seems to be about a decade or two out of date.

The middle east is an interesting and complex issue to say the least.

Sorry, anyone buying into the "China is moving into democracy" line is, IMHO, sadly and dangerously deceived. China may be moving away from the failed economic system that is communism but that does not mean it is moving towards democracy. Central to any democratic govt. is the respect for and observance of the Rule of Law. The Chinese elites do not, have never and are unlikely ever to buy into that concept. From a recent article on China by the UK (which has labeled the China a "Country of Concern"):

CHINA Latest Update: 30 June 2014 The second quarter of 2014 saw ongoing restrictions on civil and political freedoms in China. The climate for human rights defenders (HRDs) and civil society was particularly poor. There was a marked increase in the number of human rights and civil society activists arrested or detained in the weeks before the 25th anniversary of the violent suppression of popular protests on 4 June 1989.

More:

Restrictions on freedom of expression persisted. Journalist Gao Yu, who disappeared in April, and detained citizen journalist Xiang Nanfu, were shown on state television confessing to leaking state secrets and public order offences respectively. Beijing film-makers Shen Yongping and Shi Zhangkai were detained after making a documentary about constitutionalism. In May, central authorities announced a crackdown to remove “illegal and harmful information” from instant messaging apps such as WeChat.

New government regulations came into force in May banning people from petitioning central authorities without first going through local authorities. Officials said that this was intended to improve the efficiency of the petitioning system. Rights activists expressed concerns that it would restrict the channels available for citizens to raise grievances.

And ...

Restrictions on freedom of religion or belief persisted. Sanjiang Church in Zhejiang Province was forcibly demolished in May, reportedly as part of a campaign against illegal structures, while other churches in the province were reportedly ordered to remove crosses from their buildings. Henan pastor Zhang Shaojie was tried in April on public order and fraud charges. Diplomats were refused access to his trial.

https://www.gov.uk/government/public...e-30-june-2014

From Amnesty International:

East Asia

In China, serious human rights violations continue to be committed. This includes torture, execution (in which China is world leader), excessive use of force in public order policing, repression of dissent and forced repatriation of asylum seekers without recourse to a refugee determination procedure.

Foreign governments continue to fail in challenging China's disastrous human rights record, however, the recent award of the Nobel Peace Prize to the Chinese human rights defender, Liu Xiaobo, may lead to some positive change in that regard.

Asia and the Pacific | Amnesty International USA

Some specifics:

Justice system

The state continued to use the criminal justice system to punish its critics. Hundreds of individuals and groups were sentenced to long prison terms or sent to Re-education Through Labour (RTL) camps for peacefully exercising their rights to freedom of expression and freedom of belief. People were frequently charged with “endangering state security”, “inciting subversion of state power” and “leaking state secrets”, and were sentenced to long prison terms, in many cases, for posting blogs online or communicating information overseas that was deemed sensitive.

Lawyers who took on controversial cases faced harassment and threats from the authorities and, in some cases, the loss of professional licences, severely curtailing people’s access to justice.

Criminal defendants faced routine violations of the right to a fair trial and other rights, including denial of access to their lawyers and family, detention beyond legally allowed time frames, and torture and other ill-treatment in detention. The use of torture to extract confessions remained widespread.

Revisions to the Criminal Procedure Law, adopted in March to be effective 1 January 2013, introduced strengthened protections for juvenile criminal suspects and defendants, and those with mental disabilities. However, for the first time, the revisions authorized police to detain suspects for up to six months for certain types of crimes, including “endangering state security”, without notifying the suspect’s family of the location or reasons for detention. The revisions therefore potentially legalized enforced disappearance.

Arbitrary arrests and detentions

Police arbitrarily deprived hundreds of thousands of people of their liberty by placing them in administrative detention, including RTL camps, without recourse to independent courts.

The authorities operated hundreds of places of detention, including “black jails” and Legal Education Training Centres where they held thousands arbitrarily, and where torture, sometimes leading to death, was an established method of “correction” or deterrence.

Annual Report: China 2013 | Amnesty International USA

China does not share our world view and will "pick" which ever power - gives its elites the most power & authority and permits them to extend there hegemony.

China's govt. is simply not bound by law or responsive to its populace.

[JoeRedskin]

And if you think the US/China trade is somehow encouraging China's "progress" towards democracy, I would suggest you are once again reading only that which you wish to believe. China is waging an economic war with the US in good old mercantile fashion ... and is winning.

We have a staggering trade deficit with China in large part b/c the govt. is pegging their currency at a value that undercuts the dollar. It is a trade war in the good old 19th century European fashion but China is the only one fighting it.

In 2012, the U.S. trade deficit with China was $315 billion. This was up significantly from the year before, when the trade deficit was $295.4 billion. Both were higher than any prior year.

The trade deficit exists despite the fact that U.S. exports to China were the highest in history. In 2012, the U.S. exported $110.6 billion in goods, an all-time record. Exports in 2011 were only $103.9 billion. However, imports from China also set a record -- $425.6 billion, more than the $399.3 billion imported in 2011.

...

Quite simply, China is able to produce goods that Americans want at the lowest cost. How does China keep prices so low? Most economists agree that China's competitive pricing is a result of two factors:
1.A lower standard of living, which allows companies in China to pay lower wages to workers.
2.An exchange rate that is partially set to be always priced lower than the dollar.

US China Trade Deficit Explanation

Currency manipulation is a major cause of the trade deficit

A major cause of the rapidly growing U.S. trade deficit with China is currency manipulation. Unlike other currencies, the Chinese yuan does not fluctuate freely against the dollar.2 Instead, China has tightly pegged its currency to the U.S. dollar at a rate that encourages a large bilateral trade surplus with the United States.

As China’s productivity has soared, its currency should have adjusted, increasing in value to maintain balanced trade. But the yuan has instead remained artificially low as China has aggressively acquired dollars and other foreign exchange reserves to further depress the value of its own currency. (To depress the value of its own currency, a government can sell its own currency and buy government securities such as U.S. Treasury bills, which increases its foreign reserves.) China had to purchase $337 billion in U.S. Treasury bills and other securities between December 2010 and December 2011 alone to maintain the peg to the U.S. dollar (International Monetary Fund 2012a). As of June 30, 2012, China held a total of $3.24 trillion in foreign exchange reserves (Bloomberg News 2012), about 70 percent of which were held in U.S. dollars. This intervention makes the yuan artificially cheap relative to the dollar, effectively subsidizing Chinese exports.

The China toll: Growing U.S. trade deficit with China cost more than 2.7 million jobs between 2001 and 2011, with job losses in every state | Economic Policy Institute

In addition to these currency manipulations, China has no respect for US trademark or patent law. China basically views intellectual property rights as a license to steal. It's a little dated but still a relatively accurate statement of China's views on IPR: World Trade Organization Adopts Panel Report in China - Intellectual Property Rights Dispute | Office of the United States Trade Representative

China is not our friend. China will "choose us" so long as they can manipulate the economic trade war to their benefit.

[JoeRedskin]

All of this is to simply buttress what CRed was saying - this is not a unipolar world anymore. The problem is, the US leadership and its populace have failed to figure that out and, instead, have assumed (under Obama) the western European/US mindset that liberal democracy (little l, little d) is something to which all countries aspire.

I am with CRed on this. In a world where Putin and China are power players, the potential for a huge f*** up leading to global inferno is a much larger threat then the current administration seems to understand.

[Giantone]

Originally Posted by JoeRedskin

All of this is to simply buttress what CRed was saying - this is not a unipolar world anymore. The problem is, the US leadership and its populace have failed to figure that out and, instead, have assumed (under Obama) the western European/US mindset that liberal democracy (little l, little d) is something to which all countries aspire.

I am with CRed on this. In a world where Putin and China are power players, the potential for a huge f*** up leading to global inferno is a much larger threat then the current administration seems to understand.

Ok ,then what is it the you think should be done ?

[tshile]

i love 'trade deficit' arguments.