Football Outsider win predictions

[redskins1974]

Originally Posted by skindeep

@NYG L
STL W
@DET W
TB W
@CAR W
KC W
PHIL W
-BYE-
@ ATL W
DEN W
@DAL L
@ PHI L
NO W
@OAK W
NYG W
DAL W
@ SD L

Thats how I see it. I split the east because its always a toss up. 11-5

whens the last time we went undefeated at home at Fed Ex? lol never?

[44Deezel]

Originally Posted by redskins1974

whens the last time we went undefeated at home at Fed Ex? lol never?

It does feel like this could be a good year. Lots of positives to point to - Burress and TO gone and not a lot of flashy off-season moves by the rest of the NFC East, favorable schedule for the Skins, defense looks like it could be all-world. With 8 wins last year, it's not unreasonable to expect more this year... maybe 10-6?

Just got to hope that the 2-6 finish and 12 point per game average wasn't a true indication of Zorn's ability to run an offense.

[GMScud]

I disagree with several of these. IMO: Atlanta will win more than 6 or 7 for sure. Minny will get to 10 wins, not 8 or 9, Indy will finally have a down year and won't get to 11 or 12 wins, maybe more like 8 or 9. Buffalo will win more than 5, Philly will win more than 9, and Carolina and Baltimore will win more than 8. The Giants won't win 10, the Lions won't win 6. And the Redskins will win 10. Also, Chicago won't win 10 or 11, and Green Bay will win more than 7.

And last but not least, picking the NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals to be the worst team in the NFC West is just dumb. They can use all the cute little metrics and formulas they want; this list is pretty weak.

PS- I'm also going to bookmark the permalink to this post and see where I stand in January.

[djnemo65]

At least Football Outsider's have an actual methodology informing their predictions and aren't just pulling random records out of thin air like pretty much everyone else on the internet machine. I believe they have a decent track record too, although they sure missed on Arizona last year. Anyway, all this list means is that according to their formulae this is where the teams will end up. I think the Skins will be better than they allow but we'll certainly see.

[MTK]

I've got no problem with a prediction of 8-8. However I can easily see 10 wins with an improved passing game and a defense that could be special.

[44Deezel]

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

I've got no problem with a prediction of 8-8. However I can easily see 10 wins with an improved passing game and a defense that could be special.

I agree. The passing game can't possibly be any worse. 10 wins is absolutely conceivable. I'm excited to see what the D can do this year.

[GTripp0012]

Read through the Redskins chapter last night and, well, it didn't explain the projection very well.

The Redskins were given basically an even spread between being a 10-win team and a 6 win team, so this prediction really isn't saying that much.

The 11% chance of winning 11+ games does seem about half as much as it should be. In the article, Doug Farrar went at length to tell us how Haynesworth makes us a much better defense, and the offense should be better in the second year under Zorn, and then cites the competitiveness of the division as a reason to expect another average season, but we never really get a concrete reason that the projections don't have us as an improved team. I was disappointed in that.

One thing they said was that we didn't get unlucky with injuries last year, at least less more so in the first half of the season than the second, but their reasons for our two worst performances as a team coming in the last three weeks include, "golly gee, there was probably a reason there." So I think that is reflected in the projections.

So it comes down to this: if you think the last three games was a small sample aberration from our true team last year, they are probably under projecting us by at least a game and a half. If you think those games show legitimate problems with our offense and defense that were only mitigated by our offseason, then this is probably an 8-win team.

I'm doing an interview with them, so I'll have more to say later.

[GTripp0012]

The really fascinating thing is here.

They did a DVOA update, and the Redskins more than doubled in efficiency from last year. Only the Jaguars benefited more from the new system. Mostly, that change is seen in our rushing offense, which then now have ranked sixth.

All in all, I see very little reason to believe that we aren't an improved team, and furthermore, very little reason to believe that DVOA wouldn't see it that way.

[GTripp0012]

The other thing is: Pythagerous and Jim Zorn are not good friends.

Our close margin of victory in a lot of the early season games makes us look like a worse team than we really were...but again DVOA accounts for this by showing that we won a lot of our early games by bigger margins than the score indicated.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

The other thing is: Pythagerous and Jim Zorn are not good friends.

Our close margin of victory in a lot of the early season games makes us look like a worse team than we really were...but again DVOA accounts for this by showing that we won a lot of our early games by bigger margins than the score indicated.

You are correct. Perhaps this year we can blow some folks out, leading to a better Pythagorean score as well as more relaxed, enjoyable fourth quarters for us watchers.

[GTripp0012]

They did mention that Campbell goes from an average quarterback from behind center, to a top five quarterback when the shotgun is used, to a historically awesome player when he gets zone blitzed. That I found interesting.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

They did mention that Campbell goes from an average quarterback from behind center, to a top five quarterback when the shotgun is used, to a historically awesome player when he gets zone blitzed. That I found interesting.

So how does that mesh with JZ liking his QB to start under center? Do you, or they, think that JZ sees it the same way, and is flexible enough to use Campbell differently?

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

So how does that mesh with JZ liking his QB to start under center? Do you, or they, think that JZ sees it the same way, and is flexible enough to use Campbell differently?

I'm thinking we won't see more shotgun than last year, because there's a certain amount of game theory there that suggests that Campbell is effective in part because defenses don't see him there all the time. I do think Zorn will use shotgun situations more when calling passes on traditional rushing downs (1st and 2nd). I think the overall effect on the offense will be positive.

When you really talk about the Redskins on a play-by-play basis, Zorn does an excellent job at making sure he uses his entire gameplan while going back to the plays that worked the best in the fourth quarter. The only thing he needs to do more frequently is throw in a trick play or two designed at attacking downfield. All of Zorn's out of the box plays from last year were more along the "keeping the defense honest" lines rather than making them pay for over-aggression.

[44Deezel]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I'm thinking we won't see more shotgun than last year, because there's a certain amount of game theory there that suggests that Campbell is effective in part because defenses don't see him there all the time. I do think Zorn will use shotgun situations more when calling passes on traditional rushing downs (1st and 2nd). I think the overall effect on the offense will be positive.

When you really talk about the Redskins on a play-by-play basis, Zorn does an excellent job at making sure he uses his entire gameplan while going back to the plays that worked the best in the fourth quarter. The only thing he needs to do more frequently is throw in a trick play or two designed at attacking downfield. All of Zorn's out of the box plays from last year were more along the "keeping the defense honest" lines rather than making them pay for over-aggression.

And would it kill him to work in a little no-huddle from time to time and perhaps some Wildcat formation now that he's had the off-season to study it I agree that some more trickeration might have been in order, especially if our O-line was really as bad as some say it was, and find a way to make some big plays in the passing game using the running backs and roll cambell out once in a while or even run some intentional running plays for Campbell, especially near the goal-line. JC impressed me with his wheels last year, so much so that I couldn't understand why they didn't roll him out on goal-line plays or run some QB sneaks/draws more often. But I digress. Definitely looking for a little more creativity next year. I think we'll see it.

[skins89moss]

Originally Posted by 44Deezel

And would it kill him to work in a little no-huddle from time to time and perhaps some Wildcat formation now that he's had the off-season to study it I agree that some more trickeration might have been in order, especially if our O-line was really as bad as some say it was, and find a way to make some big plays in the passing game using the running backs and roll cambell out once in a while or even run some intentional running plays for Campbell, especially near the goal-line. JC impressed me with his wheels last year, so much so that I couldn't understand why they didn't roll him out on goal-line plays or run some QB sneaks/draws more often. But I digress. Definitely looking for a little more creativity next year. I think we'll see it.

I agree 100% with your observation of the offense. We have ARE who could be used for the wild Kat formation especial on short yardage and goaline situations which would give other teams more to prepare for.