Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by biffle

When you use the percentage of first round QBs who have worked out, you are using all of them, including Russell and Leaf, whom I used as examples of prospects who drag down that percentage.

Is that really so far beyond your ability to comprehend?

Irrelevant point because the fact that they are high first round picks supersedes any perceived differences between Griffin and some more notable busts from that group.

NFL types, despite concerns about character makeup, valued Russell and Leaf as top picks. If Griffin gets valued as a top pick, it is because NFL types feel similarly about him.

[los panda]

between the two i chose rg3

[30gut]

Originally Posted by biffle

When you use the percentage of first round QBs who have worked out, you are using all of them, including Russell and Leaf, whom I used as examples of prospects who drag down that percentage.

Is that really so far beyond your ability to comprehend?

C'mon that's where you're gonna go with this?

For someone who suggests that others don't understand stats why is it hard for you to comprehend that when you look at a stat for an entire group you don't get to discard or exclude any subjects based on your whim?

By your logic the hit rate for all prospects at any position should be sorted to include only the prospects that 'biffle' thinks are similar.
Unfortunately that's not how it works and historically the success rate is right around 50/50 its even lower when using the 'franchise' QB or 'elite' QB label as the measure of success. or

Originally Posted by NC_Skins

Numbers are what they are. Since 1998 (till 2009), there is a 41% success chance of landing a very good QB in the top 5 of the NFL draft.

Griffin or Luck chances at becoming a successful draft pick are still the same. They still have a 41% chance.

And the larger point, which is lost on you, is that Peyton Manning has already proven himself to be what we hope Griffin will become.

[biffle]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Irrelevant point because the fact that they are high first round picks supersedes any perceived differences between Griffin and some more notable busts from that group.

NFL types, despite concerns about character makeup, valued Russell and Leaf as top picks. If Griffin gets valued as a top pick, it is because NFL types feel similarly about him.

Actually, Griffin will be drafted so high precisely because NFL teams don't listen to anything as silly as these percentages. Because they don't think Griffin has anything in common with the likes of Russell and Leaf.

This is how statistical analysis changed baseball. Teams figured out how to compare players by production and body type, among other things. They used that to project how players would produce in the future. Teams won titles by understanding how to use stats in context like that. What they didn't do was use something as laughably simplistic as "x percentage of players at y position don't work out."

[30gut]

Originally Posted by biffle

What they didn't do was use something as laughably simplistic as "x percentage of players at y position don't work out."

Citing the hit rate is much different then saying prospect X will fail because of the hit rate.

You understand that right?

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by biffle

Actually, Griffin will be drafted so high precisely because NFL teams don't listen to anything as silly as these percentages. Because they don't think Griffin has anything in common with the likes of Russell and Leaf.

This is how statistical analysis changed baseball. Teams figured out how to compare players by production and body type, among other things. They used that to project how players would produce in the future. Teams won titles by understanding how to use stats in context like that. What they didn't do was use something as laughably simplistic as "x percentage of players at y position don't work out."

Well, sure, there are a hundred ways to project Robert Griffin to the NFL better than historical bust rates, but that doesn't make your prior point any less irrelevant.

[iRepDMV]

Robert Griffin iii for the win!

[biffle]

Originally Posted by 30gut

Citing the hit rate is much different then saying prospect X will fail because of the hit rate.

You understand that right?

LOL. Really not worth my time to continue with you. Have a good night.

[biffle]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Well, sure, there are a hundred ways to project Robert Griffin to the NFL better than historical bust rates, but that doesn't make your prior point any less irrelevant.

My point was simply you can't assign some percentage chance of success on any player because of what other, completely different, players did. Both history and common sense should tell us that. I'm not sure how that is "irrelevant".

[30gut]

Originally Posted by biffle

LOL. Really not worth my time to continue with you. Have a good night.

That's too bad.
I thought that once you realized or stopped to trying to argue a point I wasn't making that we would actually talk about Manning vs Griffin.

anyhow, cheers
HTTR

[los panda]

next time i have to come in here i'm crackin' skulls

is it too late to add a poll? a poll would be a nice visual aid

[EARTHQUAKE2689]

Here's a question: We all agree that QB/WR/OL are the three biggest holes on the team right? So let's say we re-sign our main FAs Fletch/Davis. Now we have cap space. What if we go out and sign Dwayne Bowe, Eddie Royal, and Ben Grubbs. I think it's safe to say that makes our team better and fills two holes (RT is another story) NC Skins, would you still be against the 3 picks for 1 deal for RGIII? I think FA will have a big say in whether or not we trade up.

[Pigskins]

Originally Posted by biffle

My point was simply you can't assign some percentage chance of success on any player because of what other, completely different, players did. Both history and common sense should tell us that. I'm not sure how that is "irrelevant".

You could make a case for redskins free agent qb's too!!! Manning could be the next, Mcnabb, Jeff George, brunell, it's the nfl no one is a guarantee, if it were everyone would win the sb every year, it's a lot to do with "luck"

[skinsfaninok]

Originally Posted by EARTHQUAKE2689

Here's a question: We all agree that QB/WR/OL are the three biggest holes on the team right? So let's say we re-sign our main FAs Fletch/Davis. Now we have cap space. What if we go out and sign Dwayne Bowe, Eddie Royal, and Ben Grubbs. I think it's safe to say that makes our team better and fills two holes (RT is another story) NC Skins, would you still be against the 3 picks for 1 deal for RGIII? I think FA will have a big say in whether or not we trade up.

I think we will do some big things in FA, guys like bowe, Wayne and garcon could be guys to go get.. Vincent jax also. Add Manning or RG and we are in great shape

[44Deezel]

Originally Posted by skinsfaninok

I think we will do some big things in FA, guys like bowe, Wayne and garcon could be guys to go get.. Vincent jax also. Add Manning or RG and we are in great shape

Don't like Garçon. Average WR who Manning made look better than he actually was. He's a dime a dozen guy.