Updated: Hightower Torn ACL/Moss Out 5-7 Weeks

[SirClintonPortis]

Originally Posted by SBXVII

SirClintonPortis,

Your just guessing. No different then everyone "thought" Beck would start and light it up proving that Grossman was as bad as everyone says he is and the savior Beck would change everything and this team would be back in the play off hunt.

Yeah.... that didn't happen, especially against probably the worst defense. So although you can make predictions off of old stats... no one really knows what he will do for us. All I was pointing out is that Hankerson is not doing any better and that considering other teams still might double him up that would leave someone else open or T.O. one on one. I'm not saying bring in T.O. cause he will change everything and he will set this team right. Heck I wouldn't even say that about Moss if he was healthy. No one player makes a whole team.

No different then I said Beck would be just as bad because of the WR's and because the coaching staff would not probably use him to the best of his abilities. Would T.O. come in and solve everything putting up a ton of yrds catching? I don't know, and honestly you really don't know. If the team used him for what he can do now, short to intermediate routes as a possession WR, then AA and Gaffney can go long with their speed. Could he start right away? he's been in the league long enough to know the routes. It would be more about terminology. Coaching staff gets him up to speed on 10 to 15 plays he might be helpful especially on 3rd downs just for starters.

Just like actuaries guess about the accident rate when calculating insurance premiums. Guessing the expected utilty from buying something is quite prevalent in a lot of subjects.

Descriptive statistics can be used to form ballpark estimates on data. This "guessing" is done by analysts for many more important things than football, biology and finance being two of the subjects that employ such things. I may not know exact values of the stats, but I can try to make a guess that is close.

Beck has had 2 years to learn the offense but he had absolutely no data whatsoever to form any projections "stat-based" projections. The only projections that could be made for John Beck is from empirical analysis, aka looking at tape, and even that was limited.

T.O, on the other hand, has data to work with. My high prediction on his performance is not far off from the average of his touchdowns(approximately 5) and yards(approximately 62) for the past three years. The standard deviation for his yards is 9.59. Most likely, he will contribute anywhere between 820 yards and 420 yards, and between 2 to 8 touchdowns.
So, far this is all just basic statistics. Now, one can delve even further and look into aspects of T.O's game to further narrow that range on what could be his "real" production here, but you can get some sense on what T.O's "outer limits" of production are. Then, the matter is about whether it's worth getting this kind of production over banking on unknowns that have no data to hint either way on how they are going to play both in the present and the future.

Leonard Hankerson has done nothing, hence no descriptive statistics can be used for analysis on what he might do production-wise. My point is why he is on the roster despite his giant goose-egg, and why he and every other prospect deserves a roster spot for US over a hedge like T.O. He is only on the roster because there's a small chance(VERY SMALL) he can provide a 7000+ yards in 7 years and provide many touchdowns in his career. Essentially, he is like an IPO stock you add to a portfolio to make big increases to your returns. Of course, he should not be the only "big gamble" on the roster since he is so likely to fail. What we should be doing is stuffing the roster full of other high-risk, high-reward prospects(up to a reasonable level, of course) so at least one of them sticks. What we need are players with huge returns, not hedges like T.O. Hankerson is just one of many attempts we should be trying to get a true #1. If he fails, so be it. Cut his ass and find another prospect, not hedges like T.O. The Draft and FA occurs every year. There is always opportunity to restock from those sources.

Besides, I highly doubt we need T.O to be the Wide Receiver Buddha for our young kids. Less athletic and successful WRs could also serve as a teacher and mentor to our young'uns since teaching football(or anything else, for that matter) is a whole different animal from playing football, and T.O is nutty enough that I'd stay away from him. Moss isn't going to IR yet; he could still be giving pointer on the sideline.

People love to mention how he drops balls. Hello, we are not seeing anything different out of AA, Gaffney, Stallworth, Hankerson...etc. etc. So basically all I suggested was the team going out to see how healthy he is, if healthy then think about bringing him in as a replacement for Moss until he gets healthy. Stallworth has a hamstring injury for which he was out last week. Is he healthy? Is AA completely healthy? Hightower is out for the season. If T.O. looked good I'd think about bringing him in to fill Hightower's spot and play WR until Moss is healthy. Depending on how well or bad he did the team can decide what to do with him later. Cut him. Keep him. Whatever.

One of your points is that he is to play the role of possession receiver. One of the qualities a possession receiver must have is sure hands since that helps move the chains. Being in a bromance with your QB is also required(this is a joke). Having a high frequency of drops(over 20 in some years) is one sign that a player is not suitable for a possession type role. He might contribute elsewhere, but not in a possession receiver role.