Rumor from Denver

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Originally Posted by celts32

haha...save the trouble all 45 are not needed! I said my theory is that the QB is more important recently...say since free agency started. Basically every super bowl winning QB since Aikman can be in the study. Since then with few exceptions you need a franchise QB to win a Super bowl.

Here's the data:
Super Bowl 27. Troy Aikman (MVP), 4 TDs
Super Bowl 28. Troy Aikman (Emmitt Smith), O TDs
Super Bowl 29. Steve Young (MVP), 6 TDs
Super Bowl 30. Troy Aikman (Larry Brown), 1 TD
Super Bowl 31. Brett Favre (Desmond Howard), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 32. John Elway (Terrell Davis), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 33. John Elway (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 34. Kurt Warner (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 35. Trent Dilfer (Ray Lewis), 1 TD
Super Bowl 36. Tom Brady (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 37. Brad Johnson (Dexter Jackson), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 38. Tom Brady (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 39. Tom Brady (Deion Branch), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 40. Ben Roethlisberger (Hines Ward), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 41. Peyton Manning (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 42. Eli Manning (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 43: Ben Roethlisberger (Santonio Holmes), 1 TD
Super Bowl 44: Drew Brees (MVP), 2 TDs

All but 2 SB winning QB's since free agency started were franchise QB's. And the 2 exceptions(Johnson & Dilfer) had ALL TIME great defenses. We can argue about how to get one whether it's waiting and hoping or being aggressive...but the main point to remember is that we are not winning a Super Bowl until we find one.

How many "franchise QBs" actually won the super bowl while playing at an elite level? The first three on the list qualify, I believe, but something has changed starting with Elway. Elway was out of his prime, Dilfer was on his second team, Brady didn't hit his prime until the middle of the decade. Roethlisberger hasn't achieved the elite level of play until just recently. Johnson was nearing the end of a journeyman career. Eli won it in a season where he wasn't even playing well.

I think there is no clear instance of the cause of winning super bowls being an effect of having a franchise quarterback. I think the correlation exists, but in a couple of cases, the opportunity to develop and achieve "franchise quarterback" designation came, oftentimes, seemingly as the result of playoff success. This happened in the recent cases of Brady, Roethlisberger, and Eli Manning. It also happened with Aaron Rodgers to an extent: even though he was already a pro-bowl level performer, he won his first playoff game and his first super bowl in the same year. Clearly now, Rodgers is a franchise QB, but even in his case, the super bowl he won was part of the cause of achieving franchise status, and not entirely an effect of having him.

I think when we start to adjust for revisionist history, there are only a couple instances of elite quarterbacks winning a super bowl. Manning in 06, Brees in 09, and then perhaps Brady in 04, Warner in 99, and Rodgers in 10 should also qualify. So that's what, 5 times in the last 14 years that the super bowl winning QB was also a regular season MVP candidate? Seems almost like the frequency has gone down in the last 15 years. Because in the early to mid 90s, it may have been an every year thing.