Data Post #2...

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

How different do you think the Dolphins would look today if they had taken Matt Ryan instead of Jake Long? Sure Jake Long is a top tier tackle but last I checked their second round QB has been benched multiple times and the only reason the Dolphins were able to make the playoffs back in 2008 was because they lucked out with an out of date offensive formation and a QB who probably should have never been a free agent that late in the offseason. Until that team gets a franchise QB they will be nothing more then a flash in the pan.

Anyway the point of this cautionary tale is if we have the chance to draft a franchise QB lets pull the trigger. Not take the safe pick and hope that we can find a guy in the 2nd or 3rd round which at best will turn into a one year wonder in Shanahan's system a la Brian Griese of course odds are on us finding Charlie Frye instead.

It's time to be a Falcon not a Dolphin.

This is intentionally not a complete picture (it's point is for utmost simplification), but:

Matt Ryan, career -> 60.8% complete for 6.9 Y/A
Chad Henne, career -> 61.3% complete for 6.6 Y/A

Basically, the difference between the Dolphins and the Falcons in these respective eras is absolutely NOT passing efficiency. And the largest difference in the passing efficiencies is not the quarterbacks, it's a first round WR pick in his prime (Roddy White) vs. an undrafted third year slot receiver (Davone Bess) as the most dependable target each team offers.

It's been a significant special teams advantage, and playing in the NFC South vs. the AFC East.

If you are going to model a winning team, the Falcons are absolutely not the team to model. That model would be "have a ridiculously good draft where all your picks hit, and play a soft regular schedule while disappointing in the playoffs."

I like the Bears model (win without an offense), the Chargers model (value trumps everything), the Titans/Jags model (everything comes from the ground game and pressure on the quarterback), and personally, the Gregg Williams secondary-first model. The Falcons model is 1) hard to duplicate, and 2) still lacking in long-term results.

I might, in hindsight, have recommended Matt Ryan over Jake Long. But Ryan still hasn't had a signature season, while Long's had the better career to date. I don't know how long that will hold, as it seems like a matter of time until Ryan is a perennial pro-bowler.