Good lord the Wizards have the worst luck.

[an23dy]

If you look at the probabilities our odds were not that bad. It was about 50-50 whether we would get a top 3 pick. The Kings had even worse luck than us. And you never know about any of those top picks. You never know how players will turn out. Last time we took Devin Harris when we had the 5th pick, didn't keep him, but he's an all-star now.

[jsarno]

Originally Posted by an23dy

If you look at the probabilities our odds were not that bad. It was about 50-50 whether we would get a top 3 pick. The Kings had even worse luck than us. And you never know about any of those top picks. You never know how players will turn out. Last time we took Devin Harris when we had the 5th pick, didn't keep him, but he's an all-star now.

Well, if you're talking about the first pick, 22 picks were all stars from 79-04. Only 4 weren't all stars. (pervis ellison, joe smith, michael olowokandi, and kwami brown...although 96-97 Smith was snubbed when he averaged 18.7 points, and 8.5 rebounds a game, and pervis ellison was snubbed in 91-92 when he averaged 20.0ppg, and 11.2 rpg!...which makes Olowokandi and Brown the worst picks in the past 3 decades...funny how one was from the dysfunctional clippers, and the other from the wizards led by Jordan.)
The last 4 years, none have made it...YET.
08- Derrick Rose (certainly will make the all star some day)
07- Greg Oden (will make the all star team some day as well)
06- Andrea Bargnani (had a break through this year, also logged the most minutes in his career...scored over 15 points per game...might make it some day if he continues to progress)
05- Andrew Bogut (had over 10 rebounds per game, but might have seen his most productive season. If he can add 5 more ppg, he'll be an all star)

Also, so far 13 1st picks are hall of famers, and at least 7 more will be, which totals 20.
So I'd have to say the first pick is of utmost importance. I understand you wouldn't have had the first pick if there was no lottery...just pointing out that you do know how a player will turn out if it's the first pick most of the time.