Our WRs in 2009... My Thoughts

[SC Skins Fan]

Originally Posted by 44Deezel

Roddy White didn't contribute until the Falcons got a legitimate QB and CJ had 756 yards his rookie year... and we all know what DeSean Jackson and Eddie Royal did this year and guys like Colston have done in previous years.

WR and RB are actually the positions where rookies DO tend to contribue right out the shoot. However, the best way to guarantee they won't contribute is to keep them on the sidelines, as evidenced by the Skins coaching staff.

I think if you look at the history it does suggest that wide receivers take time to develop. Everyone knows that. The problem comes in merely taking that truism and spouting it reflexively to explain the lack of production from the Redskins rookie pass catchers. Again, thinking about past precedent, Devin Thomas' numbers this year suggest to me that he will never be a very productive player in the NFL. Wide receivers don't just emerge from absolutely no where and then suddenly "get it" in year three. There is some progression. Just take the case of Roddy White. Sure he was relatively unproductive his first two seasons, but he had 446 and 503 yards receiving respectively. He also had two 100 yard receiving games and two 90+ yard receiving games over that span.

If you look at every wide receiver drafted in the first two rounds since 2000, here is a list of every player who failed to catch 30 passes his rookie year (a mark chosen by me as a sign of basic competency):

R. Jay Soward (14, 154, 1), Todd Pinkston (10, 181, 0), Freddie Mitchell (21, 283, 1), Santana Moss (2, 40, 0), Reggie Wayne (27, 345, 0), Robert Ferguson (0, 0, 0), Javon Walker (23, 319, 1), Tim Carter (2, 37, 0), Reche Caldwell (22, 208, 3), Charles Rogers (22, 243, 3), Taylor Jacobs (3, 37, 1), Bethel Johnson (16, 209, 2), Tyrone Calico (18, 297, 4), Reggie Williams (27, 268, 1), Michael Jenkins (7, 119, 0), Rashaun Woods (7, 160, 1), Devery Henderson (0,0,0 [22, 343, 3 second year]), Mike Williams (29, 350, 1), Roddy White (29, 446, 3), Mark Bradley (18, 230, 0), Roscoe Parrish (15, 148, 1), Terrance Murphy (5, 36, 0), Vincent Jackson (3, 59, 0), Chad Jackson (13, 152, 3), Sinorice Moss (5, 25, 0), Robert Meachem (0, 0, 0), Craig Davis (20, 188, 1), Dwayne Jarrett (6, 73, 0), Steve Smith (8, 63, 0)

I have highlighted those players that you can point to if you want to cling to hope that Thomas will turn into a decent player (with Wayne and White being Pro Bowlers; Moss is a different case since he is hurt and compares better to Malcolm Kelly if we want to hope for the very best). But most of the players who went on to become even basic contributers had stats that dwarfed Thomas' (15, 120, 0). The basic point that I take from this exercise is that while receivers often take time to develop they also don't start out life completely clueless (as Thomas clearly was many many times this year). Those who do start out clueless and fail to contribute usually never ever end up contributing. So you can say that it is "too soon to judge" but I think on Thomas we can actually look at past precedent and determine that he will never become a significant contributer in the NFL. He had enough time on the field to do something. He wouldn't have magically become Eddie Royal or DeShaun Jackson if only he had landed in another city.

Kelly is a different case since he was injured most of the year. It really is difficult to get a read on him. As I said above, the best we can hope for with him is a career trajectory that looks something like that of Santana Moss. Apart from Moss there is not much precedent in the past decade of a receiver missing a whole year due to injury and then becoming an important contributer to the team.

Here is a sampling of some other receivers and their rookie statistics:

Larry Fitzgerald (58, 780, 8), Roy Williams (58, 817, 8), Braylon Edwards (injury shortened, 32, 512, 3), Santonio Holmes (49, 824, 2), Greg Jennings (45, 632, 3), Calvin Johnson (48, 756, 4), Dwayne Bowe (70, 995, 5) ... and that is leaving out obvious guys like Royal, Jackson, Andre Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Randy Moss, etc.