Alex Smith’s Amazing Comeback(?)

[Warthog]

Originally Posted by mooby

1. All this talk about Alex Smith was paid an insane contract is nonsense. He was paid the going rate for a NFL caliber starting quarterback at the time. You can put a lot of things on Bruce Allen, but this isn't one of them. It's standard practice to trade for a guy and then give up a long term extension to complete the deal, otherwise the player might not agree to the trade.



2. I'm not saying Alex Smith is doing this for the wrong reasons, his track record as a team player goes back to when Kaepernick was on the 49ers. He will absolutely be an asset for Haskins to have around. And I'm not disputing his mindset right now is "I want to go as hard as I can for as long as I can, and be the first quarterback to come back from an injury this severe."



3. I think it's a perfect storm of circumstance, we knew after he went down that we had to hold onto him for at least 2 years because of the cap implications. This gives him 2 years minimum to rehab his leg and hopefully worst case scenario be able to step away from the game with no long-term complications. Best case scenario he comes back from the brink of having his leg cut off and plays football again, whether as a backup or starter. But even in his best case scenario he would only be competing for a starting spot on a team, most likely as a bridge to the next long-term qb of a franchise. So he has the motivation to do this, and he has the comfort of knowing his cap hit means he's here until next offseason at a minimum. But realistically, even if he does come back and prove he belongs on the 53, it hopefully won't be as a starter here because that would mean Haskins is a bust. I personally hope Haskins seizes this opportunity and removes all doubt whatsoever that he can be a stud qb in this league. And even if he doesn't, I consider it highly unlikely the Redskins would go into next offseason thinking Alex Smith deserves the starting job again. Alex Smith will either retire next offseason or the Redskins will release him and he will battle on another squad for a starting or reserve job.

Mooby, you know after really looking at Alex Smith’s last three years, I have to admit that you are mostly RIGHT about his contract. His contract was in line with other QB contracts in 2017.Alex had the following PFF rankings versus other QB in the NFL from 2016-2018:

2016: 21 out of 32
2017: 7 out of 32
2018 (until injury): 22 out of 32. It was noted in 2018, that his long pass attempts and TDs were in the BOTTOM THREE in the NFL. In other words, Alex was throwing lots of short, but safe, passes - even when the team was losing.

It is easy to look at Alex Smith’s excellent ranking in 2017 and see why Bruce Allen became enamored with him. But how much of it was Alex Smith and how much of it was the Chiefs ascension to a superior offense?
That’s what Bruce Smith was paid to do as GM - try to predict how Alex would do with the Redskin’s offense, not with a excellent Chief’s offense.

Bruce paid for Alex based on his superior performance in 2017, on a very, very good team. In my opinion, Bruce was running scared and wanted to hook an exciting NAME in the off-season, which was his modus for his decade as the GM. Big splash in the off-season - “winning off the field”, and win just enough games in the season to be able to say, “we’re close”. Close to what??. Back in 2016-2017, the press had pummeled Allen for the Cousin’s drama and so he traded Kendall Fuller to the Chiefs for Alex - a player they were going to release anyway. Could he have got Alex cheaper? Probably, but Bruce didn’t care about that. He was desperate to get a name for the next season. In 2018, the Redskins had a good record out of the gate (6-2) but I think Defensive coordinators had figured out how Alex was playing and were countering that when he was hurt.

Another factor is age. Although we have seen phenomenal QB like Tom Brady play into his 40’s, many other QB see a decline at Alex’s age. Also, Alex was let go by two separate teams. That’s telling you something - they didn’t want him as their #1 QB. Obviously, when you have a QB of Mahome’s caliber, you can’t hold him down.
But teams didn’t know which Alex Smith was going to show up - the below average QB of 2016, 2018 or the smoking QB of 2017.

Obviously, there was no way to predict the injury he had. But Bruce Allen knew our OL was shaky, so he should have been looking for a younger QB who could take hits and/or could scramble.

I think Bruce overpaid for Alex Smith a little, but Mooby you are right - it was in tune with
with the QB salaries for his level in his excellent 2017 season. The mistake was with Bruce Allen not drafting a QB while Cousin’s was under a franchise contract. When they couldn’t hold Cousin any longer, Bruce had to pay top dollar for the biggest QB name available- regardless of age or whether he fit our team or not.


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