[GTripp0012]

I would submit that the risky play here isn't RG3, it's Manning. Once you get past the fact that the reported asking price for the no. 2 pick is obscene and fictitious, and that only time elapsing towards the draft plus the ability of the Vikings to join the trade talks is going to make the Rams join reality, the draft becomes a well-established efficient market.

You're not losing value in a trade up for RG3. You're not gaining value in a trade up for RG3 (unless of course you are stealing it from the Rams). You're franchise is worth the same it was before and after an RG3 trade, if it's a fair deal. So trading up for Griffin isn't more or less optimal than staying put and keeping the picks.

Manning though, is inherently a gamble. There's a cap cost, a financial burden, and an opportunity cost to signing Peyton Manning on your team. The only way you can win that gamble and avoid 2012 as a lost year is to have Peyton healthy for a majority of the season, and playing at a high level. Otherwise, signing Manning burns you in the end.

Still, if you can get him, and you have the testicular fortitude to bet your job on it, Mike Shanahan has to get Manning, right? I mean, how could he pass up that chance to win big, even with his job on the line if it doesn't work? If Manning is willing to come here, that's a once a decade acquisition staring you in the face.