Quote:
Originally Posted by Schneed10
The value of any fantasy player can be defined as the value he offers over a replacement player. So if you have a 10 team league, and each team starts 1 QB, then the expected fantasy point production of the 11th best QB represents the replacement player.
I'm a data guy and a fairly big geek, so I went through and examined production for the past four years for NFL WRs, RBs, QBs, and TEs. If Brees and Rodgers perform like they did last year, and the replacement player is someone like David Garrard, then Brees and Rodgers are worth the 7th and 8th overall picks respectively. That's using a scoring system of 5 points per TD pass, -2 per INT, 1 point per 25 yards passing. If you can get one in the 2nd round you're pulling a huge profit.
There's no way Peyton Manning should be taken before either of them. He's a better QB, but not more prolific stat-wise.
Other guys I find to be major values given their expected draft position:
- Jermichael Finley - TE Packers; he basically put up 90 fantasy points (1 point per 10 yds rec, 6 per TD) in just 8 weeks starting. Rodgers is making huge strides with accuracy, and he's leaning heavily on Finley. He'll challenge Dallas Clark for top TE honors.
- Santana Moss; There were at least 5 or 6 occasions last year where Moss had burned the DBs badly on deep routes, but Campbell's ineptitude on deep balls failed him. I don't have enough fingers to count the times that Moss threw up his hands in exasperation because he was so open, but was just missed. The guy still gets open with the best of them, but between our line and JC's deep-ball problems, he was underutilized. If there's one thing McNabb can do, it's throw a deep ball. Moss will come back up to 8 TDs. He'll perform like a 4th round WR for a 6th round price.
- Clinton Portis; I just got him in the 8th round the other night. His average draft position at Yahoo is 91st overall. LJ looks like hell, Willie Parker is done. Portis is the only one who can block worth a crap, Shanahan will keep him on the field. He won't be dominant but he'll be a startable 2nd RB, and you can get him after you've filled your other roster spots.
- Jahvid Best - RB Lions; it sure looks like they're going to lean on him really heavily. Everyone knows about Ryan Matthews in SD, he's going in the low first, high second round. But Best can be had in the 3rd or 4th, and it's looking like he'll get just as many carries as Matthews.
- Arian Foster - RB Texans; Ben Tate is out for the year, and the coaches hate Steve Slaton (fumbles). Foster is bigger anyway, he's the natural choice for goalline carries. It's looking like he'll get the starting nod. You can probably get him in the 4th or 5th round. Good opportunity to pull a profit.
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You might like this:
Joe Bryant - Principles of VBD
"The value of a player is determined not by the number of points he scores, but by how much he outscores his peers at his particular position."
1. The object of the game is not to score a ton of points, but to outscore the opponent. You must fill a roster with a specified number of players at specified positions. The surest way to outscore your opponent is to build a team of players that outscore their peers. The players who most distance themselves from the other players at their respective positions are therefore the most valuable. Remember the 8 player draft example where I can't lose after drafting the 20 point WR.
2. Factors such as the specific number of teams, starting lineup requirements, frozen players, and scoring system for your league dramatically effect the values of each player. These factors can cause the same player in two different leagues to have dramatically different values.