Commanders Post at The Warpath - View Single Post - Doc Walker interviews VC and Jim Z about Draft

BigHairedAristocrat · 04-22-2009, 02:43 PM

I guess it all depends on what you allow to fall into the category of "need" - just as players are ranked to determine who the BPA on your board is, needs are ranked as well.

If we were to look at 2009 only, i think most of us would agree that our needs, more or less, go as follows:

1. OT
2. DE
3. LB
4. C
5. G
6. WR
7. RB
8. 3rd CB

Now, most of us would agree that OT, OLB, and DE are our top 3 needs in 2009, although you may order them differently. Similarly, you probably view C, G, and WR as the next needs that follow, although you may order them differently. However, if you're looking at a player at 13, and you cant trade down, and youre in a situation where the two best 4 Best OTs, 2 best DEs, and two best LBs on your board are all gone - do you...

A. Take the 5th best OT because you think its your most pressing need
B. Take the 3rd best DE because its your second-ranked need
C. Take the 3rd best LB

What do you do, then, if the best Center and Guard on the board are available? You identified both positions as being among your top 5 needs, and you have the opportunity to get the absolute best player at those position in this years draft. So do you...

D. Take thet best Center on the board
E. Take the best Guard on the board

Would it affect your decision at all if you knew that 2009 was a fairly weak class for "first round" DE and LB talent, and an exceptionally strong class for Center talent?
What if the center and guard available at 13 were the best center and guard to enter the draft in the past 5 years?
What if this years "1st round DE" would be 2nd round talent in any other year?
And to take things a step further, what if you are a GM who doesnt just look at the draft as triage, and you look beyond 2009 to forsee what your team needs will probably be in 2010 and beyond?
What if your quarterback is entering the final year of his contract in 2009 and you dont think its likely you will want to resign him after the season ends?
What if there is a really good quarterback prospect in this years draft? Sure, you could postpone making a decision until 2010. But then you'd be potentially drafting a rookie QB to fill an immediate need. Would that be wise? Knowing it takes time to develop quarterbacks, might it be prudent to draft a quarterback THIS year, so that he would be ready to play in 2010? But remember, QB isnt even one of your top 8 needs in 2009.
What if you have a 34 year old middle linebacker starting in 2009? Might MLB be a more pressing need in 2010?
What if your starting RG and C in 2009 are well on the wrong side of 30 and both of them have been declining for years. in 2010, you absolutely have to replace your Center and RG.
Knowing this, are you more inclined to take a center with your 13th pick in this years draft? Its not one of your top 3 needs this year, but you can get the best center in the draft at a position that may likely be on your top 3 next year...

But then again, if you dont address OT, DE, and OLB this year, how could Center, Guard, MLB, or Quarterback possibly become one of your top 3 needs next year? Well, now is where you have to ask yourself questions like,

What does your current depth at those positions look like - Do you have younger players who could be starters next year?
What does the free agent class look like in 2010 - could you fill needs there?
What does the draft class look like so far in 2010 - which positions are stronger and weaker in 2010 than they are in 2009?
If, over the next two or three years, you're going to need new starters at QB, T, RG, C, RB, WR, DE, OLB, MLB, and CB, how do you rank those positions? Given the nature of the NFL and your offensive and defensive systems, which positions are most important to your team?
Some positions are very reliant on others. For example, A QB cannot survive without an offensive line. So if you've identified both as needs over the next two years, what do you do?

Draft your OT this year. Draft a rookie QB next year and hope he can start as a rookie and take you to the playoffs like only 4 QBs have done in the history of the NFL.
Draft your QB this year and let him sit and learn. Draft an OT next year and start your now somewhat seasoned QB behind a solid OT who can start from Day 1. This is may be great for 2010, but you're basically giving up on the 2009 season.

As always with me that was somewhat longwinded, but I was trying to prove a point. There are ALOT of factors that go into play when determining what to do in any given draft. Looking at a draft class by itself is stupid. Treating the draft like triage, where you're only looking at your immediate needs, is short-sighted. You can't build a franchise if youre short-sighted. Which brings me back to the original question - what do you consider to be "a position of need"?

EVERYTHING. (Well, almost). If you are looking at your franchise long-term, or atleast with a 5-year window, nearly every position will be a position of need at some point. Thats why you draft the BPA in the first round (within reason) no matter what your present needs are. It might not be a need now, but it will be next year. Instead of constantly drafting for triage, you can start laying a solid foundation for the future if you draft BPA.

There are exceptions. The skins have no business drafting a TE or Safety in the first round. We have solid starters in those positions signed up for years to come and good depth. Aside from that, every other position is currently - or will be soon - a need. For those reasons, i feel strongly that if we stay at 13, we should draft the BPA - even if its not an DE, OLB, or OT.

04-22-2009, 02:43 PM	#16
BigHairedAristocrat Playmaker Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 4,712	Draft BPA in the First Round. "Everything" is a Need. I guess it all depends on what you allow to fall into the category of "need" - just as players are ranked to determine who the BPA on your board is, needs are ranked as well. If we were to look at 2009 only, i think most of us would agree that our needs, more or less, go as follows: 1. OT 2. DE 3. LB 4. C 5. G 6. WR 7. RB 8. 3rd CB Now, most of us would agree that OT, OLB, and DE are our top 3 needs in 2009, although you may order them differently. Similarly, you probably view C, G, and WR as the next needs that follow, although you may order them differently. However, if you're looking at a player at 13, and you cant trade down, and youre in a situation where the two best 4 Best OTs, 2 best DEs, and two best LBs on your board are all gone - do you... A. Take the 5th best OT because you think its your most pressing need B. Take the 3rd best DE because its your second-ranked need C. Take the 3rd best LB What do you do, then, if the best Center and Guard on the board are available? You identified both positions as being among your top 5 needs, and you have the opportunity to get the absolute best player at those position in this years draft. So do you... D. Take thet best Center on the board E. Take the best Guard on the board Would it affect your decision at all if you knew that 2009 was a fairly weak class for "first round" DE and LB talent, and an exceptionally strong class for Center talent? What if the center and guard available at 13 were the best center and guard to enter the draft in the past 5 years? What if this years "1st round DE" would be 2nd round talent in any other year? And to take things a step further, what if you are a GM who doesnt just look at the draft as triage, and you look beyond 2009 to forsee what your team needs will probably be in 2010 and beyond? What if your quarterback is entering the final year of his contract in 2009 and you dont think its likely you will want to resign him after the season ends? What if there is a really good quarterback prospect in this years draft? Sure, you could postpone making a decision until 2010. But then you'd be potentially drafting a rookie QB to fill an immediate need. Would that be wise? Knowing it takes time to develop quarterbacks, might it be prudent to draft a quarterback THIS year, so that he would be ready to play in 2010? But remember, QB isnt even one of your top 8 needs in 2009. What if you have a 34 year old middle linebacker starting in 2009? Might MLB be a more pressing need in 2010? What if your starting RG and C in 2009 are well on the wrong side of 30 and both of them have been declining for years. in 2010, you absolutely have to replace your Center and RG. Knowing this, are you more inclined to take a center with your 13th pick in this years draft? Its not one of your top 3 needs this year, but you can get the best center in the draft at a position that may likely be on your top 3 next year... But then again, if you dont address OT, DE, and OLB this year, how could Center, Guard, MLB, or Quarterback possibly become one of your top 3 needs next year? Well, now is where you have to ask yourself questions like, What does your current depth at those positions look like - Do you have younger players who could be starters next year? What does the free agent class look like in 2010 - could you fill needs there? What does the draft class look like so far in 2010 - which positions are stronger and weaker in 2010 than they are in 2009? If, over the next two or three years, you're going to need new starters at QB, T, RG, C, RB, WR, DE, OLB, MLB, and CB, how do you rank those positions? Given the nature of the NFL and your offensive and defensive systems, which positions are most important to your team? Some positions are very reliant on others. For example, A QB cannot survive without an offensive line. So if you've identified both as needs over the next two years, what do you do? Draft your OT this year. Draft a rookie QB next year and hope he can start as a rookie and take you to the playoffs like only 4 QBs have done in the history of the NFL. Draft your QB this year and let him sit and learn. Draft an OT next year and start your now somewhat seasoned QB behind a solid OT who can start from Day 1. This is may be great for 2010, but you're basically giving up on the 2009 season. As always with me that was somewhat longwinded, but I was trying to prove a point. There are ALOT of factors that go into play when determining what to do in any given draft. Looking at a draft class by itself is stupid. Treating the draft like triage, where you're only looking at your immediate needs, is short-sighted. You can't build a franchise if youre short-sighted. Which brings me back to the original question - what do you consider to be "a position of need"? EVERYTHING. (Well, almost). If you are looking at your franchise long-term, or atleast with a 5-year window, nearly every position will be a position of need at some point. Thats why you draft the BPA in the first round (within reason) no matter what your present needs are. It might not be a need now, but it will be next year. Instead of constantly drafting for triage, you can start laying a solid foundation for the future if you draft BPA. There are exceptions. The skins have no business drafting a TE or Safety in the first round. We have solid starters in those positions signed up for years to come and good depth. Aside from that, every other position is currently - or will be soon - a need. For those reasons, i feel strongly that if we stay at 13, we should draft the BPA - even if its not an DE, OLB, or OT. __________________ Dolphins get good press for saving drowning humans.But we only hear about the swimmers theyve pushed ashore.You know who we havent heard from: all the people theyve pushed out to sea.Dolphins dont know what theyre doing-they just like pushing things. Last edited by BigHairedAristocrat; 04-22-2009 at 02:51 PM.