[BigHairedAristocrat]

Here are the facts:
1. Vinny Cerrato has publically said he wants to trade DOWN in this years draft.
2. The Redskins have 3 major needs are OT, DE, and LB and everyone knows it.
3. The Redskins, who have shown no interest in QB Jason Campbell have actively pursued Jay Cutler but were outbid at the last second by the Bears.
4. The Redskins are now actively showing interest in QB Mark Sanchez.
5. Mel Kiper says the Skins have something up their sleeve.

What do these facts tell us? Well, anything can happen, but i think there are two likely possibilities:

1. The Redskins are dead set on acquiring a franchise QB in the draft and are so determined, they don't care if everyone knows they are going to do it and it results in the move costing them much more than it otherwise would. The Redskins will attempt to trade up and draft Sanchez.

2. The Redskins will not draft a QB, or a OT, LB, or DE for that matter. They are targeting another player (likely RB or WR) and they want to make sure no one trades above them to select the player.

Right now, i'd weight the likelyhood of skins moves as follows:

A. Complete WTF Move (Drafting Moreno or trading up to draft Crabtree) - 35%
B. Drafting Mark Sanchez (possibly by trading up) - 30%
C. Trading Down - 20%
D. Drafting the best OT, LB, or DE available at 13 - 15%

Also, if Option D happens, id say there's greater than a 50% chance we trade our 2010 first rounder for additional picks.

Also, i'd say theres greater than a 50% chance that Carlos Rogers, Jason Campbell, or Santana Moss are traded on draft day. (Rogers and Moss have both been shopped this offseason. We've been unreasonably stingy despite having ample cap space. I beleive we're keeping the space to enable us to take the resulting cap hit if one of these players is traded).